Montana point creep expectation

[mpb21]

I wouldnt be surprised if there is a dip in applications across the west especially as states begin to raise prices in response to demand increase but I doubt it will ever get back to where it was prior to 2019/2020. Will be interesting to see the total application numbers this year.

 

[bsnedeker]

you will draw, no one will ever have more than 2 PP after this year

Lol....better get your ketchup ready for when you have to eat those words!

 

[Rifleman86]

Except guys applying with an outfitter. Pretty easy to buy a point the previous year (up until December) and then buy 2 more points when you apply in March. Wonder how many guys actually apply with an outfitter.

IIRC when the latest outfitter welfare was passed (outfitted clients being able to buy two PP’s during application) this came up. I believe it was around ~4500 applicants use an outfitter.

Now if they are “repeat yearly clients” which was the whole point of the welfare, and they had applied the previous year, they can’t buy that extra point in Dec, just two when they apply.

There will always be a few 3 point applicants IMO but as I’ve said previously, the “apply or lose your points” rule will really help keep the point creep under control. MT got something right for once with that.

 

[Gregt9146]

Except guys applying with an outfitter. Pretty easy to buy a point the previous year (up until December) and then buy 2 more points when you apply in March. Wonder how many guys actually apply with an outfitter.

Not I

 

[Sanchez]

I will apply as a party with an average of 1.5. Hard to guess with 1.5 pp. I am really hoping for 2024 as I have other alternatives in 2023.

 

[gtriple]

Bump for 2023 data.

Based on data from MTFWP, # of points and % chance to draw:
0 pts = 60.2%
0.2 - 1.8 pts = 0%
2 pts = 83.9%
2.2 - 3 pts = 100%

Buying points:
So, year one, you buy a point before and your odds of drawing is 0% (not drawing 100%) $100 spent.
You buy 2nd point before applying the next year, $200 spent. Your odds of drawing is 83.9% (not drawing 16.1%).
Odds of one of the other occurring should be:
Probability of not drawing either year: P(A and B) = P (A) x P(B) = 1.0 * 0.161 = 0.161 = 16.1%.
Probability of drawing in one of the two years = 1 - 16.1% = 83.9%.
You buy 3rd point before applying the next year, $300 spent.
Probability of not drawing in any year: P(A and B and C) = P (A) x P(B) x P(C)= 1.0 * 0.161 * 0.0 = 0.0 = 0.0%.
Probability of drawing in one of the three years = 100%.

Not buying points:
Probability of not drawing either of first 2 years: P(A and B) = P (A) x P(B) = 0.398 * 0.398 = 0.1584 = 15.8%.
Probability of drawing in one of the two years = 1 - 15.8% = 84.16%.
Probability of not drawing either of 3 years: P(A and B and C) = P (A) x P(B) x P(C) = 0.398 * 0.398 * 0.398 = 0.063 = 6.3%.
Probability of drawing in one of the three years = 1 - 6.3% = 93.7%.

Two-Year Comparison:
Buying points = 83.9%, Costs $200
Not buying points = 84.16%, Costs $0

Three-Year Comparison:
Buying points = 100%, Costs $300
Not buying points = 93.7%, Costs $0

Make your own call on buying points. With the cost of tag being around $1200, a $300 cost for points is 25% extra.

 

[MallardSX2]

^ A pretty good Ponzi scheme they got going on there lol.

 

[Riplip]

Good statistical info, thank you. One issue I see is that you are only able to use the past years data. The unknown going forward is the actual total number of applicants, the actual total number of applicants with 1, 2 and 3 preference points, and the biggest wildcard - MTFWP.

 

[gtriple]

Good statistical info, thank you. One issue I see is that you are only able to use the past years data. The unknown going forward is the actual total number of applicants, the actual total number of applicants with 1, 2 and 3 preference points, and the biggest wildcard - MTFWP.

I think I could probably make a decent prediction (+/- 5-10%) for 2-3 years out. I'll work on that and repost.

 

[Sundodger]

I too have been working on estimating what it will be in 2024 and beyond. I suspect the total number of applicants to stay the same (2022 and 2023 were basically the same), but a continued decrease in single point applications, which will of course trickle into the 2 and 3 point groups.

 

[gtriple]

Good statistical info, thank you. One issue I see is that you are only able to use the past years data. The unknown going forward is the actual total number of applicants, the actual total number of applicants with 1, 2 and 3 preference points, and the biggest wildcard - MTFWP.

I've made a pretty solid attempt to predict it, and I just don't think there's any way to be accurate with the limited amount of data made available by Montana. If they gave a better breakdown of the points, it would be possible. Right now, it's just a crapshoot. The best way is probably follow the same trend year-over-year for percentages per range. If you have any better ideas, l'd love to hear them.

 

[Riplip]

Way above my pay grade! I think your prediction is as good as it can be with the data available.

I know a lot of people dislike MT's system, and I agree it is far from perfect, but I actually prefer it over many of the other Western States.