Is the western hunting bubble bursting? (Or at least shrinking?)

Joined
Nov 26, 2018
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I feel like the last five years has been the perfect storm for point creep/tag allocation.

We had people like Rinella/Newberg/Rogan popularizing western hunting, as well as a huge baby boomer population that had been buying points in multiple points for decades, a booming economy and lots of people with disposable income, and a Covid pandemic where hunting was one or the only things people could still do.

Covid is now over, the boomer generation is aging out of the game, the economy is in a recession, and we’re seeing a decline in tag allocation to nonresidents and an corresponding increase in tag price.

Are we going to see things like MT combo tags not selling out again?

I doubt it. But I feel like we’ve reached the peak. A lot of guys are going to say it’s not worth it anymore and find other things to do. Point systems will still suck no matter what because they are a Ponzi scheme, but some tags will get more available for guys that have been in the game for years.

I think some general tags will become more available for those willing to pay the price. Those of us who are perfectly fine hunting B tags, etc will still have plenty of opportunities to hunt every year.

I’ve had numerous friends that have gone on one or two hunts for the instagram posts realize that most elk hunting is just a shit load of work and suck with relatively low odds of success compared to let’s say, eastern deer hunting.

Either way, I think we’re finally on the backwards side of the bubble. Does that mean it’s going back to what it was in the 90s? Absolutely not, there has been a paradigm shift… But I think the worst of the bubble is over.

Anyone agree?
 

The10%

Lil-Rokslider
Joined
Mar 14, 2015
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118
I've been thinking the same thing. Just like the market, it seems demand for tags goes through swings, I would certainly think we are at the top. But have been disappointed to see nothing drop off since 2020. The truth is with internet and things such as Gohunt, the worst might not be in yet
 
Joined
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No. I don't even think we are close to the peak of things yet.

What I do know is that when I burn through my points, I am done with it. So, I will be one less guy out there messing around during hunting season.

Good news (for me) is that I have a lot of points for a lot of animals across many states in the west. Just waiting for my time to strike.
 

Glory

Lil-Rokslider
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Craig, Alaska
I think if we are not there, we are close to the top.

Everything has gone up in price. And now that money is actually worth saving (5% cd rates) more guys will elect to save money rather than spend it on recreation.
 
OP
R
Joined
Nov 26, 2018
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No. I don't even think we are close to the peak of things yet.

What I do know is that when I burn through my points, I am done with it. So, I will be one less guy out there messing around during hunting season.

Good news (for me) is that I have a lot of points for a lot of animals across many states in the west. Just waiting for my time to strike.
Yeah sort of my point, I think a lot of guys are going to burn their points and get out of the game.

So I think point creep will actually get worse in the next few years even though overall demand is down.

But on the back side in a few years things might get better as people get out of the game.

And although the loss of OTC will make things worse, a lot of those guys are going to quit hunting. There are a group of guys I know at work that have been doing the CO OTC archery thing for well over a decade. They have already had to switch units twice due to their unit going draw, and they have told me when OTC goes away they are done.
 
Joined
Aug 20, 2019
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Completely Disagree
In my opinion:
-State Game agencies will NEVER be able to price people out of hunting
-Sure some cheap folks will quit applying but for every one of those guys that quit there are 5-10 new guys who jump in
-People are buying 100k trucks, 30k utvs, 20k snowmobiles, 100k boats, 5-10k rifle, 3-4kbows, toy haulers and you think a $2-3k elk tag is going to scare them?

Did you see/hear how many people were in line get NR tags in Idaho?

Don't think we are even remotely close to the bubble bursting!
 
OP
R
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Nov 26, 2018
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No way. Wishful thinking tho!
I’m a glass half full kind of guy I guess.💩

That said I will say this, whenever it comes to demand bubbles bursting, usually very few people see it coming.

Although to be fair, I should’ve said “demand leveling off” rather than “bubble bursting” to be more accurate in what I’m trying to describe.
 
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lyingflatlander

Lil-Rokslider
Joined
Sep 25, 2017
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Wisconsin
Basic supply demand curve from highschool economics. It’s going to price out the average income guy. Coincidentally all my hunting heroes, friends and family from my youth will be priced out.
 

swavescatter

Pain in the butt!
Joined
Apr 3, 2021
Messages
1,241
Completely Disagree
In my opinion:
-People are buying 100k trucks, 30k utvs, 20k snowmobiles, 100k boats, 5-10k rifle, 3-4kbows, toy haulers and you think a $2-3k elk tag is going to scare them?

Don't think we are even remotely close to the bubble bursting!

Why do I feel personally attacked??

To clarify, most people aren’t BUYING any of that stuff. They’re financing and making payments. I’m betting my money on a BIG correction now that money isn’t free and layoffs kick in…

Let’s hope for less tag competition next year. I think this year will still be near record though.
 
OP
R
Joined
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Why do I feel personally attacked??

To clarify, most people aren’t BUYING any of that stuff. They’re financing and making payments. I’m betting my money on a BIG correction now that money isn’t free and layoffs kick in…

Let’s hope for less tag competition next year. I think this year will still be near record though.
Yeah I think this year will be the worst yet with the WY price increase looming.

We also might see a similar spike when CO drops OTC, then things leveling off as people burn their points and get out of the game.
 

Glory

Lil-Rokslider
Joined
Sep 29, 2015
Messages
244
Location
Craig, Alaska
Completely Disagree
In my opinion:
-State Game agencies will NEVER be able to price people out of hunting
-Sure some cheap folks will quit applying but for every one of those guys that quit there are 5-10 new guys who jump in
-People are buying 100k trucks, 30k utvs, 20k snowmobiles, 100k boats, 5-10k rifle, 3-4kbows, toy haulers and you think a $2-3k elk tag is going to scare them?

Did you see/hear how many people were in line get NR tags in Idaho?

Don't think we are even remotely close to the bubble bursting!
There has to be a price. 3k a tag? 5k a tag?

You average nr Hunter doesn’t have a 100k truck and 30k utv. If anything, those prices make it more likely we have reached a peak.
 
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