It is model and geography specific. Are there vehicles one can buy at or below MSRP? Yes. Absolutely. I'll use Toyota as an example since that is the one I'm most familiar with but you'll get the point.
Toyota is having supply chain issues with both microchips and some parts required for 4WD and AWD models. As a result, we are getting more 2WD models and the AWD models we do get tend to be lower trim levels which require fewer microchips. If you do a search for 4Runners and Highlanders, you'll see that many dealers have them and some even list discounts on their web sites. Look at the same model but in a 4WD/AWD model and in the upper trim levels and you'll see almost none and the ones that do exist tend to be listed at thousands above MSRP.
What does that do for the 3 year old Certified market? Well, since there wasn't a supply chain issue 3 years ago, we sold a lot more of the upper trim levels with power at all 4 wheels. They were also sold at substantial discounts at the time. The owners of those vehicles are making a killing when trading them in and are often getting close to what they paid 3 years ago because the demand is high. It also means that the retail price is similarly high for the next buyers. The lower trims and 2 wheel drive models do suffer in resale value when discounts enter the new car market.
The price of the Jeeps or Fords does have a little impact on this but not a huge amount. I don't want to sound arrogant here but 3 year old Toyotas do tend to show a bit better than 3 year old competing models generally (many exceptions to this of course).
If you really want to get into mind blowing situations, I'll get into what happens at a dealer that only sells at MSRP on the new car side but competes in a regional market on used cars. In that case, used car actually sell for MORE money than a brand new one.
