Fleeing Californians and Property Values

[BBob]

They are hammering AZ for the 3rd time in my adult life. They walk in with boatloads of cash, offer way over listed price and effectively block the natives from being able to buy. They elevate the price levels and they never come back. Every time it happens it pushes the locals buying power down and they can't afford the house they once thought they could.

 

[JakeSCH]

There was a townhome here that was around 1200 sq ft. Went on the market for 250,000 and sold 2 days later for 285,000. 7 cash offers in the first 24 hrs. I dont know how people afford these things with wages they pay around here.

kind of like JFK said, people are experiencing that everywhere. My friends have a 1 million budget and they literally can't buy a house right now because of the exact same issue. Multiple all cash offers over ask. Who has THAT kind of money?? Lol

 

[JakeSCH]

They are hammering AZ for the 3rd time in my adult life. They walk in with boatloads of cash, offer way over listed price and effectively block the natives from being able to buy. They elevate the price levels and they never come back. Every time it happens it pushes the locals buying power down and they can't afford the house they once thought they could.

Then the locals have to move to CA to make more money and the cycle continues.

 

[CorbLand]

kind of like JFK said, people are experiencing that everywhere. My friends have a 1 million budget and they literally can't buy a house right now because of the exact same issue. Multiple all cash offers over ask. Who has THAT kind of money?? Lol

The thing that really sucks is rent is following it too. My wife and I are lucky and our rent is cheap (found an old retired landlord that likes tenants that take care of places and pay on time over more money) but damn. Its like 100 bucks more a month for a mortgage than to rent here for most places. You bascially have the choice of being rent poor or house poor.

 

[JakeSCH]

The thing that really sucks is rent is following it too. My wife and I are lucky and our rent is cheap (found an old retired landlord that likes tenants that take care of places and pay on time over more money) but damn. Its like 100 bucks more a month for a mortgage than to rent here for most places. You bascially have the choice of being rent poor or house poor.

Same here. We are considering cashing out on our house and renting. Rents are higher than our mortgage and good luck finding a 3 bed 2 bed detached house for under 4k a month. It is crazy.

 

[BBob]

Then the locals have to move to CA to make more money and the cycle continues.

I made the choice of not going there long ago because it was "too expensive". Now that I'm older I see the error in my ways. If you're young and can get a good paying job somewhere like DC or Cali go for it and suffer but bank your $$. When you can't stand it any longer take your big $$ and bail to wherever you want.

 

[Sccritterkiller]

Welcome to the barrel folks...NYers and other Yankees have already turned NC blue in the last 10yrs...they move here for the cheap taxes and them complain how it's not like where they came from..Guess what the road that brought you here is two lane, you can take it back there...Charlotte and Raleigh have been ruined and Charleston isn't far behind..
It's been my experience the increase in home value isn't worth the ideology that comes with it. Good Luck!

 

[CorbLand]

Same here. We are considering cashing out on our house and renting. Rents are higher than our mortgage and good luck finding a 3 bed 2 bed detached house for under 4k a month. It is crazy.

The problem here is that its a college town so everyone equates rent to cost per room. So a 3 bedroom townhouse will go for 1200 a month because 3 friends rent it and it only costs each of them 400 a month.

My wife and I are just putting cash away waiting to take advantage of 2008 again.

 

[JFK]

You guys, trust me, it’s not easy living here in Ca. In 2018 my wife and I bought a home. I only mention the price because it will illustrate a point of how different the cost of living is here. $630k ($20k over ask) for a 3/2...1600sq/ft. Literally the only cool thing about this place is that it’s on an acre and came with a shop. The house was a complete turd. Built in the 50’s and needed to be gutted to the studs in 2/3 of the house. House sold in 2 days....multiple offers over asking. We aren’t in the Bay Area but south of it and close to the ocean. It’s worth close to $800k now.

I feel fortunate but it’s not sustainable. In a decade Ca will be a great place for millionaires and homeless.

 

[5MilesBack]

Wrong, they're selling for $1Mil, and buying a home in ID for $550K when the home is worth $250K and they think they got a great deal. In reality they grossly overpaid and screwed an average income local family out of owning a home.

You make it sound like the asking price was set at market value of $250k, and for no reason whatsoever some CA buyer offered and paid $300k OVER asking price. Is that really what's happening?

 

[JLane330]

The thing that really sucks is rent is following it too. My wife and I are lucky and our rent is cheap (found an old retired landlord that likes tenants that take care of places and pay on time over more money) but damn. Its like 100 bucks more a month for a mortgage than to rent here for most places. You bascially have the choice of being rent poor or house poor.

Property taxes follow suit as well for the locals. I've seen it happen in NM as well, Californian's come in and buy rentals and investments driving the cost of housing up, which raises both the cost to rent and the home values. The neighborhood value goes up due to the higher housing costs and boom, property taxes start going up for all.
Not sure what to think of all this other than to call it inflation, and possibly hyper-inflation in many states. The real drag is the politics these people bring. I really wish they'd stay and fix their own problems instead of infect the states they move to.

 

[fatlander]

It’s everywhere and it’s not just the fleeing Californians. It’s people fleeing the cities. I bought a small house for 165k two years ago. Put around 5k of work into aesthetic upgrades. It sold for 215k (10k over asking) in less than 24 hours a few months ago.


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[ODB]

The problem here is that its a college town so everyone equates rent to cost per room. So a 3 bedroom townhouse will go for 1200 a month because 3 friends rent it and it only costs each of them 400 a month.

My wife and I are just putting cash away waiting to take advantage of 2008 again.

I hate to say I do t think the drop will be nearly as much. It’s a whole different world now than it was then. The cat is out of the bag in a big way, Idaho is being inundated and I hate it. But it’s not going to change much.

And I try not to be a California hater as I am an immigrant to Idaho myself, but holy shit I am tired of Californians. I honestly feel bad for some because the backlash has been pretty severe, then again, if every time you open your mouth you say, “Well, back in California...” you are bound to get the smack down...

 

[Rokbar]

Welcome to the barrel folks...NYers and other Yankees have already turned NC blue in the last 10yrs...they move here for the cheap taxes and them complain how it's not like where they came from..Guess what the road that brought you here is two lane, you can take it back there...Charlotte and Raleigh have been ruined and Charleston isn't far behind..
It's been my experience the increase in home value isn't worth the ideology that comes with it. Good Luck!

We call them "Halfbacks". The Yankees move to Florida, find out it is too hot, and move half way back stopping in NC. But hey, it's a free country. There will be another 2008 housing bubble to even things out on prices. Save your money and jump in when the time comes.

 

[CorbLand]

I hate to say I do t think the drop will be nearly as much. It’s a whole different world now than it was then. The cat is out of the bag in a big way, Idaho is being inundated and I hate it. But it’s not going to change much.

And I try not to be a California hater as I am an immigrant to Idaho myself, but holy shit I am tired of Californians. I honestly feel bad for some because the backlash has been pretty severe, then again, if every time you open your mouth you say, “Well, back in California...” you are bound to get the smack down...

A correction will happen. It may not be as bad as 2008 was but there will be correction. When is the question.

 

[Broomd]

Has anybody seen the percentage increase amount in property values for some of the refugee states (MT, WY, ID) for the mass exodus coming off the west coast? Seems like somebody missed an enormous investment opportunity.

We didn't miss anything... grin.

I told the wife that I suspect our place appreciated 15% in value just this Summer with pandemic and ANTIFA lunacy.

 

[MattB]

The CA exodus won’t be ending anytime soon. Cost of living in a place like ID or WY doesn’t even compare to CA. You just hope CA residents remember why they left CA. I would hate to see ID, MT, and WY run into the same political/tax/regulatory problems that CA is dealing with.

While some people leave CA due to taxes/politics, I think that is overstated as a reason - at least in my experience. Most folks who leave the Bay Area, whether they stay in CA or leave the state, move to harvest equity from their homes to help fund their retirement. They can buy 2x the house for 1/2 the price and still have 6 figures left over. I wouldn't expect those folks would leave their politics behind.

 

[JakeSCH]

Maybe you all from other states can convert them to more conservative views...because they sure don't listen to me! haha

 

[ewade07]

There was a townhome here that was around 1200 sq ft. Went on the market for 250,000 and sold 2 days later for 285,000. 7 cash offers in the first 24 hrs. I dont know how people afford these things with wages they pay around here.

They cant, debt is pretty indiscriminate.

 

[Gobbler36]

Well I bought a house in Boise in 2014 so I've seen about 120% increase in prop value....

Same here