Colorado Draw Recap Report Anomalies

[Mighty Mouse]

I'm browsing the 2019 Colorado draw recap report, and I'm curious if anyone knows why first choice applicants with more preference points are sometimes unsuccessful while first choice applicants for the same hunt with fewer points are successful. This isn't the norm, but examples can be found scattered throughout the draw recap report.

For instance, the draw results for either-sex archery elk tags in unit 55 (hunt code EE055O1A) show that only 4 out of 5 non-residents with 3 points were successful but all 6 NR's with 2 points were successful. My assumption has always been that the draw proceeds by point pool from highest to lowest until the tags run out, which seems to be supported by page 18 of the regulations brochure: "PRIORITY goes to those with the most points, except when the license quota or nonresident cap would be exceeded."

My best guess is that these apparent anomalies are caused by group applications comprised of individuals with different numbers of points. The regs make clear that a group's point pool is determined by the group member with the least points. So maybe the 3 point guy in the aforementioned example applied as a group with some 0 point guys, and they were all unsuccessful, which shows up in the report as a higher point applicant losing out to lower point applicants (though in reality the 3 point guy voluntarily entered the draw as part of the 0 point pool).

 

[FYT]

Feel bad for the sucker who spent 7 points on a draw that 64% got with 0, haha.

Good question though- I've spent too much time looking at those reports myself. You may be right about the group application thing, but my understanding is that group apps in CO are totally bundled together and only have one official "point level". I wonder if it was a case of someone drawing the tag but not taking it or paying for it? I don't think that shows up in the draw recap, though, seems like it would only show on the leftover list.

Anyway, good question- someone with more time than me should ask CPW about it.

Also, just curious, is there any other reason you're asking about this other than it just being sort of a weird thing?

 

[Vids]

I've always heard that's because of group applications, like you described. The unsuccessful folks with 3 points were grouped with someone with 0 points and as a group they were unsuccessful.

 

[FYT]

I've always heard that's because of group applications, like you described. The unsuccessful folks with 3 points were grouped with someone with 0 points and as a group they were unsuccessful.

I sit corrected.

 

[cnelk]

There are a usually a couple reasons for what you discovered

1- Usually the applicants dont understand the draw process and specifically the Group applications. They will apply not knowing only the applicant with the LOWEST PPS are counted - not averaged like Wyoming.

2- The applicants may have not authorized payment for the tag when the credit card was hit, or the credit card on file was incorrect or was declined.

 

[Vids]

What you wrote is correct though. The group is "bundled" and has one point level. It's the lowest in the group. If four guys go together and 3 of them have 10, 9 and 7 points, and the 4th has zero, that group application has zero points.

 

[Vids]

cnelk's option #2 is also correct, as a possible reason for it showing up that way in the stats.

 

[sndmn11]

The draw reports are published before the payment deadline, so I don't think non-payment would be the answer.

 

[cnelk]

Yeah probably not the payment part - probably returns and re-issues

Looking back at the dates:

Draw recaps are dated May 24, 2019.
Apps were due April 2, 2019
My Credit Card was hit for elk on June 8, 2019

Payment deadline June 21, 2019

Plenty of time from April 2 to end of May for returned & re-issue tags

 

[Mighty Mouse]

Also, just curious, is there any other reason you're asking about this other than it just being sort of a weird thing?

Mostly just curiosity. I've noticed these apparent anomalies in the past and figured someone around here might have an explanation.

I also wanted to confirm my understanding of the mechanics of Colorado's draw system. I've been assuming that they start with the highest point level and work down until running out of tags, which would allow you to guarantee yourself a tag upon reaching/exceeding a certain point total and would make it impossible for a lower point applicant to get drawn ahead of a higher point applicant (unless there are other factors at play like the group dynamic). I've read that some states use a weighted lottery system in which your preference point total determines the number of times your name is entered into the lottery, so more points means better odds but there are no guarantees. And other states I believe employ a hybrid system consisting of a weighted lottery with a guarantee provision for applicants above a certain point threshold.

 

[Jd259]

I’ve been on the receiving end of this I applied for a deer unit with five points and did not draw while a few people with four points drew and it was not because of payment or anything of the sort and I applied on my own and I still to this day have no idea why I didn’t get it and guys with less points were successful... should have called f&g but never did. that was three years ago to....

 

[spike camp]

My buddy just asked, why he didn’t draw an ES archery deer tag...when there are 5+ leftovers for the unit.
He had 0 points and did not apply as a group.

I didn’t have an answer...

 

[Mighty Mouse]

My buddy just asked, why he didn’t draw an ES archery deer tag...when there are 5+ leftovers for the unit.
He had 0 points and did not apply as a group.

I didn’t have an answer...

I've seen this happen too. When all the tags for a given hunt get drawn but some still show up on the leftover list, I believe it means that some of the drawn tags were returned after the draw or the successful applicant failed to pay by the deadline. The returned/not-paid-for tags are then put back up for grabs as leftovers.

 

[spike camp]

I've seen this happen too. When all the tags for a given hunt get drawn but some still show up on the leftover list, I believe it means that some of the drawn tags were returned after the draw or the successful applicant failed to pay by the deadline. The returned/not-paid-for tags are then put back up for grabs as leftovers.

Yep, only logical explanation.
Thank you for your input.

 

[fabes22]

Feel bad for the sucker who spent 7 points on a draw that 64% got with 0, haha.

Good question though- I've spent too much time looking at those reports myself. You may be right about the group application thing, but my understanding is that group apps in CO are totally bundled together and only have one official "point level". I wonder if it was a case of someone drawing the tag but not taking it or paying for it? I don't think that shows up in the draw recap, though, seems like it would only show on the leftover list.

Anyway, good question- someone with more time than me should ask CPW about it.

Also, just curious, is there any other reason you're asking about this other than it just being sort of a weird thing?

HAHA. Hey I am "the sucker" that had the 7 points. Funny it ended up on a thread! I was fully aware of the draw system and how it worked and knew I was wasting my points. Oh well, I wanted to hunt with my friends and one of them had 0 points (the other had 2 or 3) so we understood our group would have 0 points in the draw. My options with 7 points I felt were limited in the near future, especially with point creep. Plus, I felt those points were an albatross around my neck the past few years, preventing me from applying for other units because I didn't want to use up my points. I wish there was a way you could preserve your points and still put in for a unit as first choice but that is not an option.

 

[txhunter581]

People are always looking for something that would help with point creep. Averaging points would because it would allow more groups to draw and that would use up all those guys points.

Just have to eliminate guys with lots of points from helping a group draw and then getting a refund while the other guys still hunt. In other words if the high point guy turns his tag back in and gets a points restored either they all lose their tags or he doesn’t get his points back.

 

[cnelk]

Nobody is a sucker when it comes to using PPs.

You don’t know their backstory or intentions.

I once used 7 PPs on a deer tag that only took 2 PPs, just so I could hunt with my son.

One of my most memorable hunts. Was I a sucker?

 

[5MilesBack]

You also have to remember all those landowner vouchers. Any undrawn vouchers or vouchers turned in whether private or unit wide will also get put back into the leftover pool.

 

[5MilesBack]

Nobody is a sucker when it comes to using PPs.

You don’t know their backstory or intentions.

I once used 7 PPs on a deer tag that only took 2 PPs, just so I could hunt with my son.

One of my most memorable hunts. Was I a sucker?

Everyone makes their own decisions for their own reasons, but I would have taken my son hunting and then used my 7 points the next year.......or kept collecting them. And you still would have had a great time with your son. Whenever I take someone else hunting, I prefer to NOT have a tag.

 

[sodaksooner]

I've seen guys with more points than that apply for that unit. Believe there are 16 tags available in the leftovers. Also the tags were cut from 650 to 350 this year, so no more 55 as a second choice.

Everyone's motivation is different. It's more important to me who I hunt with versus where I hunt.