Montana and this math intensive pref point system for the combo elk tag - Ramblin'

[ndbuck09]

From Montana's website on the stats for the Elk Combo tag.

With the max pref points capped at 3, and the rule that you go to 0 when you draw or don't apply for a year, what I can't figure out is how there were 4,138 apps with 3-2.2 PP's in 2023. If there were only 238 people who didn't draw the combo in 2022 with 2 points plus it doesn't show anyone with a fraction of a whole number in 2022, That would seem to correlate that those 238 people would go to 3 points in 2023. There was no one with 1 point in 2022 so no one could buy the point in the back half of the year and then at time of draw in 2023 to add 2 points to their tally, making it 3.

when analyzing the 0PP pool from 2022, there were 1523 who didn't draw in that pool, but theoretically the max they could go into 2023 with was 2, so they couldn't be part of the 3 PP apps in 2023.

So how would there have been 4,138 apps with 3-2.2 Pref Points in 2023???

What am I missing here? To me it seems important to understand this so as to try to get an idea what's going to happen here in 2024. Because right now, from this data, there are over 9000 folks who will have the max at 3-2.2 points (the people who did not draw in the .2-1.8 PP range in 2023) and there's only 12,750 combo tags available to people with pref points (75% of the quota to points people, 25% to those with no points). That'll leave only 3,750 tags for the 2 point pool, but judging from the 2022 to 2023 data, there are some magic jumps in points that seem to have occurred. The way this all stands, the draw odds at 2 points looks like it could drop to 37% for 2024 (3,750/10,259).....

 

[MTtrout]

It’s Montana logic, get yourself a cold smoke and it will make since

 

[Indian Summer]

The other point holders simply didn’t apply so they didn’t show up in the stats the year before

 

[ez_willie]

I think a few people applied with 1 pp in 2022, even tho they don’t list it since it should have been 0% draw odds. I would call game and fish and read what you wrote to them, I bet there bored anyway.

 

[ndbuck09]

The other point holders simply didn’t apply so they didn’t show up in the stats the year before

This is what would be logical, but supposedly you lose your points back to 0 if you don't apply....

 

[Tman24]

It doesn’t say that no one had 1 point in ‘22 just that no one drew with 1 point.

Don’t forget that going guided you can buy 2 points at the time of application.
It’s going to be hard to figure out what the odds will be with that and points getting reset. But you can be sure that they will be lower than last year

 

[ndbuck09]

You're 100% right...that's probably the missing piece from '22 to '23. There are 12,188 apps not showing up in the 2022 table, so safe to assume that was the .1-1.9 point level.

So taking that logic, and throwing out the outfitted apps since it's probably only in the hundreds, 33% of those folks in 2022 went on to buy the point in the back half of 2022 and then the point at time of draw in 2023 to come into '23 draw at the 3 point max. Which helps to somewhat model '24, in that perhaps around 35% of people will buy the points to get to max for this year.

 

[ndbuck09]

I'm also honestly posting about this so that people might see how STUPID all of it is when they could just do a random draw for the combo/general elk tags and also do a random draw for the permit hunts separate from the combo/general.

You want to hunt montana general units, put in for the 17000 tags minus however many permit tags there are. You want to try to have the chance to hunt a permit unit, you can put in for it and if you get that it supersedes the general draw.

 

[ez_willie]

I'm also honestly posting about this so that people might see how STUPID all of it is when they could just do a random draw for the combo/general elk tags and also do a random draw for the permit hunts separate from the combo/general.

You want to hunt montana general units, put in for the 17000 tags minus however many permit tags there are. You want to try to have the chance to hunt a permit unit, you can put in for it and if you get that it supersedes the general draw.

Although somewhat confusing, I think MT has a great system in place for folks that actually want to hunt in MT every other year and not just sit around collecting points. Apply or go back to zero.

 

[Tman24]

I'm also honestly posting about this so that people might see how STUPID all of it is when they could just do a random draw for the combo/general elk tags and also do a random draw for the permit hunts separate from the combo/general.

You want to hunt montana general units, put in for the 17000 tags minus however many permit tags there are. You want to try to have the chance to hunt a permit unit, you can put in for it and if you get that it supersedes the general draw.

$100 a preference point is a lot of money for MT
They have it at Max of 3 now, but don’t think they’ll get rid only raise it

 

[KHNC]

The best thing to do here, is just not go hunting in Montana at all. They have really f'd up their draw system in my opinion. You didnt even mention the bonus point BS they have going on as well. I finally just ditched my points and lost the money i had paid.

 

[Tmac]

I'm also honestly posting about this so that people might see how STUPID all of it is when they could just do a random draw for the combo/general elk tags and also do a random draw for the permit hunts separate from the combo/general.

You want to hunt montana general units, put in for the 17000 tags minus however many permit tags there are. You want to try to have the chance to hunt a permit unit, you can put in for it and if you get that it supersedes the general draw.

They are stupid all the way to the bank. Take a look at some states that release revenue by source. Pref/bonus points are very big $ to some. For hunts with large tag numbers, I like preference points because they let me plan a hunt with near certainty.

 

[ladogg411]

The Montana system is so convoluted. Hard to understand how they ever got to this point.

Any newbie to this game is a fool to consider Montana.

 

[ez_willie]

The Montana system is so convoluted. Hard to understand how they ever got to this point.

Any newbie to this game is a fool to consider Montana.

Where should a newbie look to hunt elk that’s better? Colorado? Fly to Idaho December 1?

 

[Tman24]

Where should a newbie look to hunt elk that’s better? Colorado? Fly to Idaho December 1?

Go fishing instead. It’s getting bad, and I’ve only been in this game since’17
MT right now isn’t that bad if you stay with MT. When you are applying for points in other states too, it sucks.

 

[RELIANT]

I think a few people applied with 1 pp in 2022, even tho they don’t list it since it should have been 0% draw odds. I would call game and fish and read what you wrote to them, I bet there bored anyway.

30947
-3651
- 9336
- 5772
=12238 applicants in 2022 in the 1 point pool (i.e. between 0 and 2 pp)

 

[ez_willie]

30947
-3651
- 9336
- 5772
=12238 applicants in 2022 in the 1 point pool (i.e. between 0 and 2 pp)

I did the math, 2 PP will be 73% draw odds in 2024(+/-5%)

 

[fmyth]

The Montana system is so convoluted. Hard to understand how they ever got to this point.

Any newbie to this game is a fool to consider Montana.

What other state has better than 60% draw odds for someone with 0 points?

 

[ladogg411]

What other state has better than 60% draw odds for someone with 0 points?

And does the silly MT FWP still employ a process that provides better odds to a zero point applicant than a 1 point applicant?

How is that audit going that the state ordered on FWP draw process?

That agency has confused even itself. Wouldn't send them any money.

 

[ez_willie]

And does the silly MT FWP still employ a process that provides better odds to a zero point applicant than a 1 point applicant?

How is that audit going that the state ordered on FWP draw process?

That agency has confused even itself. Wouldn't send them any money.

Objection, silly MT FWP is just following the law that 25% of tags go to zero point holders only. They can’t help how many people apply at each point level