Climate change...deer numbers

[Pdzoller]

Just going to point out the elephant in the room. The number one reason for any change in species decline is human caused. Overpopulation, habitat encroachment and destruction, environmental mismanagement, political interference, poaching, etc… The list goes on and on.

Cats aren’t the only issue here. We have a huge population of bears. I hunt fall bear religiously and very seldom see anyone else hunting them. Look at the harvest numbers and see how many people actually take more than one bear per year. It’s an extremely fun and easy hunt. Food = bears.

Too many uneducated people throwing in policy that has no scientific evidence. I wish things were different. I think eventually we will see the end of mule deer hunting as we know it and more crippling protections put in place for recreational and agricultural opportunities.

 

[5811]

This is starting to feel like a drop test vs leupold thread......

 

[Flyjunky]

Oh of course. No question. I mean the science was settled how many times now? And that ice age we narrowly averted. Excuse me while I reclutch my pearls.

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You can look up politicians and climate activists back in the 70's, and every decade after, proclaiming we only have 10 years left. Wasn't just 10 years ago that little girl Greta and some of our most esteemed politicians claiming it was all going to end in 12 years?

What's going to be the new slogan in the 2030's?

 

[jjohnsonElknewbie]

Come on ya'll, everyone knows the decline in muley populations is Trump's fault. Sorry had to throw that one in...

 

[jjohnsonElknewbie]

You can look up politicians and climate activists back in the 70's, and every decade after, proclaiming we only have 10 years left. Wasn't just 10 years ago that little girl Greta and some of our most esteemed politicians claiming it was all going to end in 12 years?

What's going to be the new slogan in the 2030's?

Easy... They will just keep moving the goal posts further back indefinitely.

 

[jjohnsonElknewbie]

Yup, the climate was the coldest with the some of the most snow in recorded history last winter... and killed 80-100% of some game herds last winter.
Climate change for sure.

But remember, the buzzword was changed from global warming to "climate change" for exactly these kinds of reasons. "Proving" the globe was getting hotter and the sky was falling was difficult when "outliers" like last year's historic snow and cold happen.

But like others have already said, "the science is settled", so we should all just shut up and get with the program.

 

[jmez]

Rule #1. Anyone that says science is settled, doesn't know much about science.

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[MuleyFever]

Yup, the climate was the coldest with the some of the most snow in recorded history last winter... and killed 80-100% of some game herds last winter.
Climate change for sure.

Last winter's storm isn't the climate. That's called the weather.

 

[Ozarkansas]

This whole Climate Change, Global Warming fiasco is easily debunked by anyone with half a brain and an open mind by a trip through a good Nature and Science Museum like the one in Denver, Colorado.

Their dinosaur and fossil exhibits show plants and creatures that existed hundreds of millions of years ago when the climate of the Earth was nothing like it is now. And their geology exibits show the actual changes that have occurred in the Earth's surface through the last 4+ billion years.

Then a short trip just west of Denver where I-70 cuts through the hogback ridge and see all of the layers of various sedimentary rock formations that are exposed like an open book. The sand and mud that was once the ocean floor and low altitude swamps tens to hundreds of millions of years ago, are now rocks containing fossils and footprints of life back then are now rocks forming mountains a mile or more above the present ocean sea level.

25,000 to 100,000 years ago, during the last Ice Age, much of the Earth's northern hemisphere, including where I live in Montana, was covered with Ice Glaciers up to 2 miles thick.

You don't think that the Earth hasn't changed? And all of those changes that happened had absolutely nothing to do with mankind.

Our current "Climate Change or Global Warming Crises" are only a tool for politicians to control and to get rich from the people.

I don’t think anyone but young earth creationists think that the earth’s climate doesn’t naturally change.
I also don’t think anyone can deny that we’ve had climactic shifts over the last couple decades. Sea levels are rising, precipitation patterns are changing, the planet as a whole is warming, etc. whether you think there’s enough evidence to call it anthropomorphic climate change is a different discussion.
The fact is that in my neck of the woods, we’ve had a long streak of mild winters with occasional brutally cold Arctic blasts, followed by super wet springs and very dry summers. Things might not stay this way- the last two years have seen more regular spring rainfall- but they’ve already had an impact on hunting. Sure, some mountain ranges out west might change for the better, but some are going to warm/dry to the point where you’re going to lose alpine habitat and the animals that go with it

 

[jjohnsonElknewbie]

Climate change helps our deer. Cold and snow out here kills a bunch more than warm and no snow.

In Western Iowa, the last 4 years of drought have kicked the whitetail populations a$$. EHD and blue tongue have ravaged the herd in this part of the state as a result of it.

On the flipside, it's been the best 4 years of pheasant hunting we've had for a long time.

On the downside, we haven't gotten to catfish the local river for the last couple years, because water levels have prevented the fish from migrating this far north.

On the other hand, we've had very low mosquito numbers, so that's been nice.

Tradeoffs and compromises, some good and some bad.

 

[jjohnsonElknewbie]

I don’t think anyone but young earth creationists think that the earth’s climate doesn’t naturally change.
I also don’t think anyone can deny that we’ve had climactic shifts over the last couple decades. Sea levels are rising, precipitation patterns are changing, the planet as a whole is warming, etc. whether you think there’s enough evidence to call it anthropomorphic climate change is a different discussion.
The fact is that in my neck of the woods, we’ve had a long streak of mild winters with occasional brutally cold Arctic blasts, followed by super wet springs and very dry summers. Things might not stay this way- the last two years have seen more regular spring rainfall- but they’ve already had an impact on hunting. Sure, some mountain ranges out west might change for the better, but some are going to warm/dry to the point where you’re going to lose alpine habitat and the animals that go with it

I'm a sample size of one, but in my lifetime, I would agree that the seasons in Iowa have shifted. We "seem" to stay warmer longer into the fall and colder later into the spring. I don't recall ever having 4 years of drought like we've had recently, but my lifetime is not even an ink dot with any significance in geological time.

I've not seen any data that could be trusted that supports man-made climate change. The "icons" of this movement in the country, Al Gore and John Kerry, have proven time and time again all you have to do is follow the money. If Kerry was such a zealot, he'd never fly in a jet or ride in a gas-operated vehicle again. He would live off grid with only solar and wind power to run his shack and communicate only through virtual meetings. However, instead he is the self-appointed prophet of climate change and all that would disagree with the "settled science" are ignorant climate deniers (as he jets off to his next multi-million dollar summit with the other elites of the world to feast on and waste vast quantities of premium food from around the world).

 

[Koda_]

Also, as someone who loves mule deer and has spent my life time pursuing them my biggest fear is that they’re simply right. That the changes in forage quality, drought, sporadic winters, etc.. are the cause of the steady decline.

I agree climate change is a big cause of the decline but that doesnt explain letting other causes go silent.

 

[PLhunter]

Oh of course. No question. I mean the science was settled how many times now? And that ice age we narrowly averted. Excuse me while I reclutch my pearls.

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The Montreal Protocol of 1987 was the turning point for ozone and the 1991 US-Canada air quality agreement was the turning point for acid rain. Examples of doing something about a problem being successful.

“Science by definition is unsettled”. In science in order for something to be accepted or settled is when scientist cannot find data to falsify that theory. In the very strictest sense there is no such thing as “settled science” yet people misuse this reality for the sake of semantics. we have and rely on scientific constants every single day. Electricity, products, predicting the flight of an arrow etc…there are highly established values and theories that massively repeated test confirm. However, yes. In science if one could maybe potentially prove that the value or constant is wrong through rigorous proof. But for many things the odds of that are incredibly small. We rely on settled science to know the results of chemical reactions, the conductivity of materials in microchips, etc… The science that determined the ignition temps and pressures of fuel for your car etc..

It would be absurd to argue with an anesthesiologist about the settled science of dosing with a chemical or a chemist about the result of a chemical reaction based on the fact that science isn’t completely ever settled so how could they ever be so sure. Or a physicist that the amount of thrust they’ve calculated won’t bring them into their desired orbit because in the end we can never REALLY sure. Really in this realm it’s the same. In order to unsettle the science which is technically a possibility one, in this case Jmez, the one making the claim, would need to demonstrate that CO2 does not absorb and radiate heat and/or humans do not increase the concentration of this gas in the atmosphere. So yes the science could become unsettled but science requires the burden of proof on the person making that claim.

 

[PLhunter]

I agree climate change is a big cause of the decline but that doesnt explain letting other causes go silent.

I didn’t quite get that message the way you did. Definitely worth applying pressure though. This is making want to get out and hunt a cat that’s for sure. We have such a great opportunity with the mosaic in Oregons landscape the last couple years. We have areas that have had drought relief the last two years. Areas where you definitely can’t argue “fire suppression” is the issue. These areas need to be studied and if these ideal conditions that exist in this very short window of time don’t produce even a temporary bump in fawn recruitment we need to dig deeper. Personally, I’d like to see them control predators in say the Whitehorse or Owyhee units. Pick just one. They have had mild winters and this will be the second season of drought relief. If we get lucky and get one or two more it could allow us to isolate that predator variable in two similar units.

 

[PLhunter]

But remember, the buzzword was changed from global warming to "climate change" for exactly these kinds of reasons. "Proving" the globe was getting hotter and the sky was falling was difficult when "outliers" like last year's historic snow and cold happen.

But like others have already said, "the science is settled", so we should all just shut up and get with the program.

North America is not the globe…. It’s global warming, not jjohnsonElknewbie’s backyards warming during a winter. Average global temperatures are increasing. Globally last year was the hottest since we had records in 1850. Doesn’t mean every square mile will be hotter this year compared to last. It’s a big world. They changed the name because some people couldn’t understand it when where they were specifically was cold or colder. So they changed it hoping it would be easier to understand. But the basics of overall average annual temperature increasing never changed. They didn’t change it because the reality was different. They changed it because people were too dumb and were overly optimistic that anything could be done about it.

 

[buffybr]

I don’t think anyone but young earth creationists think that the earth’s climate doesn’t naturally change.
I also don’t think anyone can deny that we’ve had climactic shifts over the last couple decades. Sea levels are rising, precipitation patterns are changing, the planet as a whole is warming, etc. whether you think there’s enough evidence to call it anthropomorphic climate change is a different discussion.
The fact is that in my neck of the woods, we’ve had a long streak of mild winters with occasional brutally cold Arctic blasts, followed by super wet springs and very dry summers. Things might not stay this way- the last two years have seen more regular spring rainfall- but they’ve already had an impact on hunting. Sure, some mountain ranges out west might change for the better, but some are going to warm/dry to the point where you’re going to lose alpine habitat and the animals that go with it

The earth's average temperature has risen by 1.7 degrees F in the last 120 years. How much of that change is because of better measuring equipment and better record keeping?

Last summer my thermometer at home hit 100 degrees F. Last month it got down to -33 F. The biggest factor affecting our Earth's temperatures is sunlilght, or the lack of it.

The last 3 years that I lived in Steamboat Spgs, CO our lowest winter temperature in town dropped to -52 to -54 degrees F, not windchill, and each year we would have 1-2 weeks where the daily high would not get above -30.

Luckily, in 1975 I moved to tropical Montana where I havn't seen any temperature lower than -40 F

Al Gore predicted that US coastal cities like New York City and places like Florida would be submerged due to Global Warming melting the Arctic ice packs. That hasn't happened.

When Obama was President, he preached the horrors of Global Warming causing the oceans to rise, yet he bought a $12 million oceanfront mansion in Martha's Vineyard.

I've hunted Bighorn sheep in the 9,000-10,000' alpine areas of the mountains in SW Montana. We also have good population of Bighorn sheep in the 2,500' hills along the Missouri River in Central Montana. Animals adapt.

I've seen Mountain goats living at 13,000-14,00' in Colorado. I killed mine at 9,000' just below timberline in SW Montana. I've also seen them down along the Madison and Gallatin Rivers at 5,000'. Animals adapt.

 

[roadrunner]

"Back in the day" it was blamed on oil and gas development, in the NW corner of NM. Development has slowed way down as far as surface use goes and loss of habitat and forage.

Numbers are still dwindling, so the only thing to blame would be cliMate change.

Nevermind that you can't blame predation because you can no longer trap on public lands, or hold coyote contests...

 

[PLhunter]

Last summer my thermometer at home hit 100 degrees F. Last month it got down to -33 F. The biggest factor affecting our Earth's temperatures is sunlilght, or the lack of it.

Well, yeah without the sun we’d be -455 degrees Fahrenheit. That doesn’t mean that other factors that control our climate are unimportant or are not hugely influential to the narrow window we have for survival. So yes the sun is a bigger part of the whole but previous mass extinctions were not determined by the suns activity instead most are attributed to rapid changes in climactic conditions due to changes in the earths atmosphere.

Also, before saying see exactly it’s happened naturally before. Keep in mind that is an example of a non sequitur logical fallacy. Just because something has had a cause before doesn’t mean that it’s the cause for the current issue. It’s the burden to show how naturally processes are, this go around, the cause and how human causes aren’t contributing to it.

Previous naturally occurring rapid changes have also had various reasons. Some were massive increases in volcanism releasing large amounts of greenhouse gasses or even Impact events. That doesn’t mean these are the only potential causes for changes. It was biological processes that caused the great oxygenation event that eliminated many anaerobic organisms. That’s a single type of life form transforming the entire atmosphere…

Point being even the historical record of changing climates doesn’t say that any one change shares the exact same trigger or cause as the last. Because something happened doesn’t mean it’s what’s happening. You’d need evidence for making that claim. We humans are releasing locked carbon back into the atmosphere and in a form that absorbs and radiates heat. This makes us pretty good candidates for the cause of changes happening this time around and at a minimum a verified contributor.

 

[Ozarkansas]

The earth's average temperature has risen by 1.7 degrees F in the last 120 years. How much of that change is because of better measuring equipment and better record keeping?

Unless they’ve also realized water actually boils at 101.7 degrees Celsius in the last 100 years, probably almost none of it. We’ve had very accurate thermometers for a while now. the average sea level rise in the last 100 years is 6-8 inches per NASA.

Maybe Obama doesn’t care about sea level rise that won’t affect his vacation home in his lifetime, or maybe he’s dumb, idk. But I’m not wading into the sensationalist aspect of climate change here or how it’s pushed by politicians, I’m just saying it is happening and is affecting wildlife.

I've seen Mountain goats living at 13,000-14,00' in Colorado. I killed mine at 9,000' just below timberline in SW Montana. I've also seen them down along the Madison and Gallatin Rivers at 5,000'. Animals adapt.

Yeah, animals adapt. They move to better habitats (if they have wildlife corridors) or their populations decline until they either go extinct, stabilize at a lower carrying capacity, or evolve. None of those things are particularly good for hunters.

 

[jmez]

The science doesn't need to be unsettled since it has never been settled in the first place. And conversely, the burden of proof is also on the climate alarmists to prove that human activity is the cause of climate change. That altering human activity will reverse, stop, or slow down climate change. That the climate change we are experiencing is not just another natural cycle in an ever changing world.

Of course none of that can be proven, so it makes a great slippery slope argument/yeah but what's the harm argument. Plays on insecurity and fear. The greatest manipulative tool we have. Pushed by a group of people that travel in private jets to a location where they then are taken by helicopter to be picked up in a motorcade of Expeditions spending a week in pure opulence telling the rest of us how to save the planet.

One of these billionaires has a larger carbon footprint than the entirety of Rokslide. But they offset that with carbon credits, paying money to not cut down trees, that were never going to be cut down in the first place. Trees that are only doing the dirty work of scavenging the CO2 when companies or people pay them to do so. Well they scavenge it all the time but it only counts when someone pays for it. It's almost like magic!!

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