Climate change...deer numbers

[30338]

Just remember, the science is settled.

 

[Jason Snyder]

It’s always fascinating to watch how humans struggle with entertaining and recognizing there can be multiple causative factors involved.

 

[Dos Perros]

No one could ever point to any one event and blame it on climate change with any sort of certainty. There is so much natural variation in climate absent any larger trends that you could never isolate the cause of any one event. How do you know this hurricane was caused by climate change? You don't. Maybe over a hundred or a thousand or ten thousand years you could make a total count of hurricanes and say with some probability that the delta between actual count and predicted count is because of climate change. But the time scales people are using are way too small, orders of magnitude too small.

 

[PH1969]

I wanted to see if any of you have heard your state game department blame climate change as a major factor in mule deer decline in your state? Last night here in Oregon a meeting was held in my town to discuss the new management strategy for mule deer. Climate change was brought up as a significant factor, #1, in suppressing our deer herd. Anybody heard such a thing? Seems to me they are using it as a scapegoat because it's something they obviously can't control so they basically don't have to do anything because it's all the result of climate. Just to make this clear, they are not saying a bad winter here or there....actual climate change.

They are saying that because of climate change the deer are malnourished which results in them being easier to prey upon. Ok, I can understand that to a point but to say it's the #1 factor....what a crock of sh*t. It couldn't have anything to do with the 10,000 cougars we have in this state. Nah, that would be controllable and they'd actually have to do something. I guess this is what I get for living in a blue state that hates hunters.

Flyjunky,

You are spot on Sir.

 

[IdahoBeav]

There’s a whole fossil record of what happened last time temps were extra warm - about 3x the normal amount of rain in many places and things like crocs lived up in the Arctic. I have no doubt humans are our own worst enemy - it’s human nature to resist taking action on long term problems - just think about superfund sites we have that still aren’t fixed and multiply that by 10,000 for the rest of the world. Nobody gives a sht about climate change unless they live on the coast and are tired of rising sea levels flooding their beach condo, or their favorite ski area starts to suck. Our kids‘ kids will inherit the climate of the early Pliocene for a few million years - North America will be fine - hot and sweaty, but fine. Maybe Putin’s or Kim’s or an Iranian dictator‘s kids’ kids will start a nuclear war and it won’t matter. Again human’s won’t care until the day it happens. *chuckle*

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The problem is that issue has been hijacked by politicians and their large agenda. It's not about science and solving a problem. Efficiency is the first and largest of several methods that will be required to solve the issue. Efficiency also saves money, which is extremely popular, but this isn't what those in power push. Every "solution" that is discussed involves higher cost and ceding more power to public entities that already have too much power.

 

[william schmaltz]

There is ongoing research in the Chugach on the obvious treelike creep and how it is(will) effecting sheep as it progresses and continues to shrink habitat and push predator ambush points closer to sheep. A lot of places tree line is progressing several meters per year. So obviously that is happening because of warmer overall temperatures. Human caused or natural? Who knows.

The consensus from public and biologists on why sheep are in the tank currently is very clear - several consecutive inconsistent winter and spring events that have caused icing where and when it *shouldn’t happen. The blame can be placed on a changing climate from the long term baseline without much dispute. If that perceived change is natural, human caused, or just a bit of bad luck is the question.

 

[PH1969]

Seriously though, has anyone heard their game departments use the climate change excuse? I'm genuinely curious if ODFW is the only one.

Grew up in Burns. Moved to ID in 90'. IDFG sucks, but have not heard that here, yet......

 

[PLhunter]

No one could ever point to any one event and blame it on climate change with any sort of certainty. There is so much natural variation in climate absent any larger trends that you could never isolate the cause of any one event. How do you know this hurricane was caused by climate change? You don't. Maybe over a hundred or a thousand or ten thousand years you could make a total count of hurricanes and say with some probability that the delta between actual count and predicted count is because of climate change. But the time scales people are using are way too small, orders of magnitude too small.

True. I hate when they do that. However, there are some things you can be very sure about. That we convert solid carbon sources locked away into a gas. That gas absorbs and radiates thermal radiation. That gas decreases the pH of water. When you increase the quantity of heat radiating and absorbing gases it’s going to have affects. Wrestling with exactly what which and where those affects are on any specific day is difficult. But predicting that there are going to be changes is easy. I do think that we are seeing those effects in our wildlife. The rate of change is such that we have been actually able to measure it.

Also, why does it take a specific storm being caused to change anyone’s opinion on it? Simply saying “hey everyone we’ve thrived as humans because we’ve enjoyed a period of climactic stability in the Holocene that has been hugely beneficial to us. Our borders and infrastructure are based on these conditions. We’re doing something that is going to change that quicker than the natural rate. Can’t say exactly what or where but the averages will change and the normal will change. And considering we’ve invested a whole lot in something similar to the status quo we probably shouldn’t.” That should be enough instead of prosecuting a specific hurricane.

 

[PLhunter]

There is ongoing research in the Chugach on the obvious treelike creep and how it is(will) effecting sheep as it progresses and continues to shrink habitat and push predator ambush points closer to sheep. A lot of places tree line is progressing several meters per year. So obviously that is happening because of warmer overall temperatures. Human caused or natural? Who knows.

The consensus from public and biologists on why sheep are in the tank currently is very clear - several consecutive inconsistent winter and spring events that have caused icing where and when it *shouldn’t happen. The blame can be placed on a changing climate from the long term baseline without much dispute. If that perceived change is natural, human caused, or just a bit of bad luck is the question.

Yup, a whole lotta bad luck happening in a whole lot of areas. Like the entire globe…

 

[Rich M]

Exactly. It drives me nuts how people can’t understand that any human caused affects are in addition to whatever natural cycles and occurrences there are. Climate cycles change naturally. Absolutely. Add to that human caused changes and you add severity, frequency, and rate of change. Natural weather pattern shifts are stressful enough on wildlife adding to that can be the final straw. Especially, when that’s not the only category of stressor that’s being changed.

The amount of CO2 released by a single volcano...

Cow farts alone... LoL!

But people have all these affects.

The geology tells the story of times past and people still think it happens in a lifetime, or even 10 lifetimes. The geological stuff is in millions of years. And we're at a cool point in history. But believe the crap you see on TV and convince yourself that anything else is illogical.

If we just stop all mankind, the climate would still continue its natural progression.

Are you in the field? I practice geology but not the climate side of it. My cousin and her buddy do the weather stuff, not sure if they do climate change or not. I know folks building cow fart catchers - for real.

 

[Flyjunky]

It’s always fascinating to watch how humans struggle with entertaining and recognizing there can be multiple causative factors involved.

That’s kind of my point though. Our ODFW is basically saying they aren’t going to work on any of the other issues because it’s pointless in the face of climate change. That’s what pisses me off. Everyone knows it’s a multifaceted problem but when those other problems aren’t addressed….bs.

 

[Dos Perros]

Also, why does it take a specific storm being caused to change anyone’s opinion on it? Simply saying “hey everyone we’ve thrived as humans because we’ve enjoyed a period of climactic stability in the Holocene that has been hugely beneficial to us. Our borders and infrastructure are based on these conditions. We’re doing something that is going to change that quicker than the natural rate. Can’t say exactly what or where but the averages will change and the normal will change. And considering we’ve invested a whole lot in something similar to the status quo we probably shouldn’t.” That should be enough instead of prosecuting a specific hurricane.

I think it's a trust thing. You get some folks in the mix pushing a message or an agenda that I know is false calls the rest of it into question, because I don't know enough to know which of them are real and which are fake.

I suppose the above doesn't really matter, in my opinion of course, because I have a rather fatalist view on it: the developing world will never curb their emissions enough, and the developed world's actions on this topic will be for naught.

I also don't think the impacts of climate change are likely to be as devastating as the media wants us to think. As with any change there will be costs as well as benefits. I never hear anyone talking about the benefits, which brings me back to the trust thing.

 

[TaperPin]

The problem is that issue has been hijacked by politicians and their large agenda. It's not about science and solving a problem. Efficiency is the first and largest of several methods that will be required to solve the issue. Efficiency also saves money, which is extremely popular, but this isn't what those in power push. Every "solution" that is discussed involves higher cost and ceding more power to public entities that already have too much power.

I just don’t think people care enough to put much effort into even learning about issues, let alone taking action to help. The loudest critics are often the least informed. We had a guy get elected to the school board who ran on eliminating 100% of all funding for schools. He was quickly put on the budget committee so he could explain how to run a school with no money. Lol

Unlimited money contributions to politicians allows billionaires to buy the system for themselves and common sense is out the window.

Who on the anti science side has fought for more stringent scholarly standards for scientists to follow? Nobody. Who has been fighting for better research into an animal we care about, with a source of money to pay for it? Nobody. I doubt the state of (insert your favorite state here) has well funded departments after the cluster jerk of the little recession, Covid and now post Covid. Nobody cares enough to want to fund the government.

 

[PLhunter]

The amount of CO2 released by a single volcano...

Cow farts alone... LoL!

But people have all these affects.

The geology tells the story of times past and people still think it happens in a lifetime, or even 10 lifetimes. The geological stuff is in millions of years. And we're at a cool point in history. But believe the crap you see on TV and convince yourself that anything else is illogical.

If we just stop all mankind, the climate would still continue its natural progression.

Are you in the field? I practice geology but not the climate side of it. My cousin and her buddy do the weather stuff, not sure if they do climate change or not. I know folks building cow fart catchers - for real.

Actually, the volcano thing is a myth. It’s shared on Facebook lots but is verified false. We actually dwarf volcanoes in CO2 emissions. We kick their asses. Also, keep in mind that we do what we do AND the volcano. So even if it was equal, which it’s not, it’s another whole volcano erupting year after year…. Shotgun approach incoming in…

Which emits more carbon dioxide: volcanoes or human activities?

Human activities emit 60 or more times the amount of carbon dioxide released by volcanoes each year.

www.climate.gov

 

[Dos Perros]

A link to a URL with climate.gov.....I'm not sure if I could design a least trustworthy source.

 

[Dos Perros]

I just don’t think people care enough to put much effort into even learning about issues, let alone taking action to help.

I don't think this is true. A large segment of Americans donned masks and got vaccinated. That is "taking action to help."

My conservative family takes actions in regard to climate change. We consume less than our ability, generally. We make choices around what we consume (this, and not that). We prioritize efficiency and longevity of material goods. We do lots of things, and we do it as skeptics even.

People do care. People are just, generally, powerless to affect change.

 

[Yoder]

First of all, there no "crisis". How about everyone just take look at pictures of the Statue of Liberty in NY harbor. Look at the water level 100 years ago and look at it now. Looks exactly the same. How can that be with ocean levels RISING AND WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!! Sorry, I panicked just thinking about it. If things get really bad everyone on the coast could just move about an inch inland every year to keep from drowning.

 

[5811]

Don't worry, in a few more years there will be a new buzzword and boogyman. Climate change will go by the wayside as did global warming, hole in the ozone, acid rain, ice age.............................. All existential crisis, until they're not.

You do realize that acid rain and the hole in the ozone aren't the big deal today that they were then because we identified the problem and made changes, right?

 

[PLhunter]

I think it's a trust thing.

Oh, I hear you there. The messaging has been awful. I’ve talked to experts and people a hell of a lot smarter than me and asked why they message it this way. The answer is usually just “people don’t get the science and don’t care about it if they do. They understand storms and severe weather. So we appeal to what people know.” I think it’s been a terrible strategy. That’s why I communicate it as it’s raw irrefutable components. Doesn’t matter often but better than saying “see Bill!!! It’s 60 in January and it’s because you don’t believe in Climate change!”

I think the effects will be pretty severe once the Oceans absorption capabilities slow due to concentration of dissolved co2. It’s going to vary but we’ve made our borders and cities and infrastructure based on these climactic conditions. That’s going to shake things up.

But anyway this is about Mule deer. I have a video somewhere on YouTube with a great ODFW biologist I need to share.

 

[PLhunter]

You do realize that acid rain and the hole in the ozone aren't the big deal today that they were then because we identified the problem and made changes, right?

People don’t remember shit. Lol we could stop a meteor strike and everyone would be protesting the expense of stopping the next one because it didn’t happen last time!! Survivor bias.