Buying a truck in this crazy market?

[Kevin Dill]

I've always heard the saying: "The best time to look for a new job is when you already have a good job". I believe the same can be said for vehicles. The guy who waits until he has to buy something is going to severely limit his options and probably spend more to get less.

I bought a new '20 Denali Duramax 2500 at the peak of Covid fear when dealerships were loaded and generally dead quiet. I bought it $12k below msrp from a dealer that had 5 of them. Despite the current situation with vehicles I just ordered a '22 Denali Reserve 1500 which will likely get built over the summer. I got in the queue on GMC's website and did an 'official' reservation. The GM of my dealership finalized the order.

I personally think we're watching the future of vehicle sales and availability unfold in front of our eyes. I don't see any reason to believe the future will look like the past. High demand supports high prices. Dealers and manufacturers love that and you can bet the plans are being laid at this very moment.

 

[bushangler]

I've always heard the saying: "The best time to look for a new job is when you already have a good job". I believe the same can be said for vehicles. The guy who waits until he has to buy something is going to severely limit his options and probably spend more to get less.

I bought a new '20 Denali Duramax 2500 at the peak of Covid fear when dealerships were loaded and generally dead quiet. I bought it $12k below msrp from a dealer that had 5 of them. Despite the current situation with vehicles I just ordered a '22 Denali Reserve 1500 which will likely get built over the summer. I got in the queue on GMC's website and did an 'official' reservation. The GM of my dealership finalized the order.

I personally think we're watching the future of vehicle sales and availability unfold in front of our eyes. I don't see any reason to believe the future will look like the past. High demand supports high prices. Dealers and manufacturers love that and you can bet the plans are being laid at this very moment.

I agree with both points!

By way before you need.

The further is now! The days of going to a dealer and then having 100 trucks on a lot are gone forever! Why would they ever go back. When supply is high the buyer has the upper hand when supply is low the dealer/manufacture holds the cards.


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[NDGuy]

I personally think we're watching the future of vehicle sales and availability unfold in front of our eyes.

Guess I will be riding bike to work once my truck goes

If all this continues there is going to be mass civil unrest. The majority of the population cannot afford to own a home, buy a car, pay medical bills, etc.

 

[5MilesBack]

Yep I am just rocking my 2010 Ford and fixing as needed until things cool off, at least you can have more options and can haggle a bit.

2010.......that's like brand new almost.

I'm still sporting my 33 year old Toyota 4x4, 22 year old F-350, and 23 year old Maxima. I still can't believe that blue book on the F-350 is still more than I paid for it 14 years ago. And as for condition.......I'd jump in any of the three and drive them cross country today, if I needed to. I guess I'm a buy and hold kind of guy.

 

[Like2hunt]

2010.......that's like brand new almost.

I'm still sporting my 33 year old Toyota 4x4, 22 year old F-350, and 23 year old Maxima. I still can't believe that blue book on the F-350 is still more than I paid for it 14 years ago. And as for condition.......I'd jump in any of the three and drive them cross country today, if I needed to. I guess I'm a buy and hold kind of guy.

Nothing wrong with that!! I plan on driving my 96 F-150 till the wheels fall off. Can’t beat the old trucks they’re easy to work on, usually have a bigger engine bay, and they don’t have none of those electronics to go wrong. They sure don’t make them like they used to.

 

[5MilesBack]

People keep saying this, but it's just not the case. The unemployment rate is lower than it was before the pandemic. It's the lowest it's been save a single month in 2019 for 50 years. It has nothing to do with not wanting to work. It's purely demographics and skill mismatch.

The unemployment rate is figured based on those folks actively LOOKING for work. That excludes a whole gob of folks since Covid. So of course it makes the unemployment rate look low.

 

[Farmingdale's Finest]

The unemployment rate is figured based on those folks actively LOOKING for work. That excludes a whole gob of folks since Covid. So of course it makes the unemployment rate look low.

So many people don’t understand this.
The participation rate shows we have at least a million more people not working today than before the pandemic started.

Those people drop off the unemployment rate when they stop actively looking for a job or are no longer eligible to collect unemployment.


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[xsn10s]

The Fed should raise the first rate hike today. But IMO the shortage of chips and materials will slow production so they'll still be a shortage of inventory. That should keep prices high I'm thinking at least a year. Price drops might not come until a recession. And the latest talk is split betweem a mild recession in 2023 and a harsher one like in the 70's. As for me I've been buying cheaper rigs and working on them myself for at least a decade. But for serious towing that needs to be more reliable I'd look for a lower mileage truck. YMMV

 

[Cowbell]

People keep saying this, but it's just not the case. The unemployment rate is lower than it was before the pandemic. It's the lowest it's been save a single month in 2019 for 50 years. It has nothing to do with not wanting to work. It's purely demographics and skill mismatch.

First, more boomers are retiring than Gen X and Millennials exist. The 18-22 year olds coming into the job market do not replace the people retiring. This will continue to happen for the next 15 years. Effective unemployment will be 0%, there will not be enough labor to meet the demand for labor. Look at any demographic chart and this is very obvious. The Boomers didn't have enough kids and the GenXers really didn't.

What is being confused with an unwillingness to work, is that for the first time in 50 years, the workers have the supply demand curve on their side. And they are leveraging that for a better job with someone that will pay them more or offer something else better that they want. The job market is so hot, you can just walk off a job, tell your employer to F off and be employed again in days to hours. With no repercussions, you'll probably end up better off for it.
Something else that has changed is younger workers have no loyalty to their employer. They watched their parents get screwed endlessly in the 80s-2010s an it was "just business". They took it to heart.

Skilled people don't even have to look. They have people begging them to come work for them instead of where they're at.
I get a 5k bonus per person I can recruit to work at my company, if they stay 4 months. OT rates at 500+%, because there's not enough people in the whole US with the requisite credentials to legally do what we do to cover need with the retirement rate we've had since 2020. We're also sponsoring visas to anyone that has the US certs that doesn't have the right to work.

The skilled labor shortage will continue for a very long time looking at the demographic charts, baring automation or mass skilled immigration.

Unemployed People not looking for work are not considered part of the labor force and so aren't used in the equation for unemployment %. It's a super misleading statistic.

 

[twall13]

In mid 2020 I bought a 2019 6.2L Gas F-250 with 10,000 miles on it. I had plans to run it to the ground. Seeing how crazy the market is, I don't think I'll ever have the opportunity to upgrade like this again in my lifetime. After owning it for two years, I've put 25,000 more miles on that truck, and I'm confident I could sell it for at least $6k more than what I paid for it. Back in early January, I placed an order for a 2022 F-250 with the 7.3 motor. The dealer thought I'd have it by March or April. So far, my only update from Ford is a very general email saying certain parts are hard to get right now and may cause delays on certain models. They'll let me know when my truck is scheduled for production. Obviously a longer lead time than what the dealership thought, but I'm not in a huge hurry. As long as used prices stay high, my new vehicle price is locked in so I come away a winner with very little extra out of pocket and a new vehicle to drive. In the meantime, I'm wearing down the the tires on someone else's future truck, but don't anticipate I'll have to replace them before I sell.

I just checked Ford's website, and it looks like they've upped prices about 6% for the truck I ordered just since January. That, and it says they are no longer accepting orders for certain 2022 models because they are so far behind. I do feel bad for people who are in a situation where they are stuck needing to buy in this market. If you need something now, it's a really tough time to be a buyer. If you have time to wait, I think ordering well ahead of when you need something is a wise choice.

 

[Wyomuleskinner]

I am in your shoes. The used market just doesn't make sense to me. They are getting almost new prices for trucks that have a lot of miles and no warranty. I just sold my duramax for exactly what I paid for it 5 years and 70,000 miles ago. I ordered an F250 with a gas engine. I'm not saying that's what you should do but with the money I got from my previous vehicle it's going to be the same price as a used vehicle outright with all the warranty and I'll know the maintenance history. Good luck I'd error on having more truck than I need. I just don't understand these guys who insist on pulling max loads with a half ton. A half ton in like a car with a bed and that's all some people need but if your pulling heavy loads I'd pony up for the heavier duty truck.

 

[Wyomuleskinner]

In mid 2020 I bought a 2019 6.2L Gas F-250 with 10,000 miles on it. I had plans to run it to the ground. Seeing how crazy the market is, I don't think I'll ever have the opportunity to upgrade like this again in my lifetime. After owning it for two years, I've put 25,000 more miles on that truck, and I'm confident I could sell it for at least $6k more than what I paid for it. Back in early January, I placed an order for a 2022 F-250 with the 7.3 motor. The dealer thought I'd have it by March or April. So far, my only update from Ford is a very general email saying certain parts are hard to get right now and may cause delays on certain models. They'll let me know when my truck is scheduled for production. Obviously a longer lead time than what the dealership thought, but I'm not in a huge hurry. As long as used prices stay high, my new vehicle price is locked in so I come away a winner with very little extra out of pocket and a new vehicle to drive. In the meantime, I'm wearing down the the tires on someone else's future truck, but don't anticipate I'll have to replace them before I sell.

I just checked Ford's website, and it looks like they've upped prices about 6% for the truck I ordered just since January. That, and it says they are no longer accepting orders for certain 2022 models because they are so far behind. I do feel bad for people who are in a situation where they are stuck needing to buy in this market. If you need something now, it's a really tough time to be a buyer. If you have time to wait, I think ordering well ahead of when you need something is a wise choice.

I think I ordered mine in march and they sent me a build date. I think some options prolong the build and the dealer coached me a little on things to leave off to speed up the process.

 

[Doc Holliday]

Buddy just bought a GMC Denali 2500 w Duramax last week. Got it for $83K and feels like he got a good deal....

 

[Adam Gibbs]

Thanks for all the input so far. Keep it coming. Right now I'm leaning towards just picking up something "cheap" and fairly rust free for now. And seeing what happens over the next year on the used market. There are a few 3/4 ton Chevy and GMC gassers in stock in my area that are under $50k, but I'm still hesitant to go new.

 

[twall13]

I think I ordered mine in march and they sent me a build date. I think some options prolong the build and the dealer coached me a little on things to leave off to speed up the process.

Ya, I've heard that as well. I actually have a call in to my dealer to see if they have any insights on which options are causing delays. There are a few I'd change for a quicker build, but I'm not in a huge hurry so if they don't know specifics I'll probably just wait it out. Good to hear some guys are getting their orders built.

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[h2so4]

Ya, I've heard that as well. I actually have a call in to my dealer to see if they have any insights on which options are causing delays. There are a few I'd change for a quicker build, but I'm not in a huge hurry so if they don't know specifics I'll probably just wait it out. Good to hear some guys are getting their orders built.

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The Ford dealer I'm working with (granger) did not have any answers as to which options could cause the delay. I'd also triple check to make sure that any changes made do not put you into the new pricing. It was my understanding that if I made adjustments to the build, the price would reflect current pricing.

 

[RyanT26]

Question for those who are ordering vehicles. When doing so do you have to put down a deposit or is it some type of contract.

 

[h2so4]

Question for those who are ordering vehicles. When doing so do you have to put down a deposit or is it some type of contract.

It varies depending on the dealer you choose to work with. I choose Granger, it was $1,000 non-refundable deposit. I'm in Colorado, they are in Iowa. The Colorado Ford Dealers were overall not nearly as competitive or helpful. They required a lessor but refundable deposit and priced the truck at sticker. They were all classic sales guys / dealers where there was a huge "document fee" on top of MSRP and were not budging on negotiations. They don't care if you don't actually buy the truck, they can sell it once it hits the lot in a day or two.

 

[5MilesBack]

The people saying wait are not very plugged in to the auto market. This is the new way of doing business. This is more an issue of supply and demand than inflation.

Markets of all types go in cycles.......some are longer or shorter than others, but the cycles always come, whether going up or down. That applies to everything with cycles......including climate change. This too shall pass.

 

[twall13]

Question for those who are ordering vehicles. When doing so do you have to put down a deposit or is it some type of contract.

I'm sure it varies from dealership to dealership. Mine is a local dealer in Utah. No deposit required, as mentioned above, they can likely sell it for more money to someone else if I don't end up buying it so it wasn't a huge concern for them. I would have been happy to put money down if required. The manager and I did both sign an agreement locking in the price and listing all the options I selected at the time the order was placed with Ford. They accepted my X-plan pricing but I don't have to show my affiliation until the vehicle arrives and I pay the bill.

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