Bitcoin

[pokil12305]

I think at this point, I have to go into cryto and keep btc

 

[Stave]

Since no one answered my question about arbitrage, and I really would like to know the answer to that question, I'm going to reframe it:

Think about the incentives structure. During the adoption phase of bitcoin, there is an extremely strong incentive to be an early adopter because every person who begins hodling subsequent to the early adopters are contributing to the early adopters’ nominal wealth.

Eventually, adoption will plateau. It could be at 20, 40, 80 or 100% of the currency market. Once it plateaus, people's mindset will change. The incentive structure will reverse. If anyone else gets out before you, they are destroying your nominal wealth. There will be a very strong incentive to be the first person to get out.

The price will fall and bitcoin doesn't have a natural price floor. Commodities have price floors. If the price of gold falls far enough, jewelers will start buying lots of it. So will artists, electronics manufacturers, and other producers. Gold is not only monetary. It is also used by people who intend to produce things.

Commodities are never down for the count. The price never goes to zero and they never vanish from the market. Bitcoin can go to zero and can vanish from the market. Bitcoin depends on people being ideologically committed to its monetary purpose. It has no productive purpose to fall back on. For bitcoin to maintain a share of the currency market, a percentage of the population must choose to hold it despite a perennial incentive to selfishly get rid of it.

Prove me wrong. Demonstrate that bitcoin has a price floor.

 

[Stave]

Someone mentioned getting at least a little btc because of a limited supply.

What do you think is going to realistically happen to the people that don't have any if its adopted?

Think we're are all just gonna starve to death?

There is no risk in not adopting bitcoin. If you walk into a grocery store someday and they only take bitcoin, it is because the price of bitcoin has become more stable than other currencies, with a smaller spread, more liquidity and a predictable price.

At that point, you take whatever assets you have (skills, labor, stocks, income, real estate, commodities) convert into a little bit of BTC and buy your groceries. Nothing to worry about. You will only need enough to pay your monthly bills.

But your grocer of course will be submitting sales tax to the govt in BTC. That is one way they will know whose wallet is whose.

 

[CorbLand]

One thing that makes me question BTC is that in the last 5 or so years people have all been worrying about a cashless, digital currency being ran by a government. Yet BTC is a digital, cashless currency. It may not be ran by a government but we have also watch businesses do the governments bidding over the last couple years.

 

[2531usmc]

Since no one answered my question about arbitrage, and I really would like to know the answer to that question, I'm going to reframe it:

Think about the incentives structure. During the adoption phase of bitcoin, there is an extremely strong incentive to be an early adopter because every person who begins hodling subsequent to the early adopters are contributing to the early adopters’ nominal wealth.

Eventually, adoption will plateau. It could be at 20, 40, 80 or 100% of the currency market. Once it plateaus, people's mindset will change. The incentive structure will reverse. If anyone else gets out before you, they are destroying your nominal wealth. There will be a very strong incentive to be the first person to get out.

The price will fall and bitcoin doesn't have a natural price floor. Commodities have price floors. If the price of gold falls far enough, jewelers will start buying lots of it. So will artists, electronics manufacturers, and other producers. Gold is not only monetary. It is also used by people who intend to produce things.

Commodities are never down for the count. The price never goes to zero and they never vanish from the market. Bitcoin can go to zero and can vanish from the market. Bitcoin depends on people being ideologically committed to its monetary purpose. It has no productive purpose to fall back on. For bitcoin to maintain a share of the currency market, a percentage of the population must choose to hold it despite a perennial incentive to selfishly get rid of it.

Prove me wrong. Demonstrate that bitcoin has a price floor.

At the end of the day, bitcoin is nothing more than electrons residing on silicon chips

 

[fmyth]

At the end of the day, bitcoin is nothing more than electrons residing on silicon chips

The same can be said of Facebook yet no one is debating its 1.26 Trillion dollar market valuation.

 

[fmyth]

One thing that makes me question BTC is that in the last 5 or so years people have all been worrying about a cashless, digital currency being ran by a government. Yet BTC is a digital, cashless currency. It may not be ran by a government but we have also watch businesses do the governments bidding over the last couple years.

You won't find any serious Bitcoin advocates referring to Bitcoin as a digital currency. It's digital property used as a store of value hence the CEA's declaration that it is a digital commodity.

 

[fmyth]

Bitcoin will never be used as a currency in the USA. We use the dollar because our government requires us to use the dollar and nothing will change that. Investors purchase Bitcoin as a store of value. It's an alternative to investing in gold, real estate, or art. It's already received mass adoption and investors have poured 50 billion dollars into the publicly traded ETF's in just over 2 months. Your arguments for or against Bitcoin are irrelevant to Bitcoins future. Invest in it or don't invest in it. It's ultimately your decision.

 

[CorbLand]

Bitcoin will never be used as a currency in the USA. We use the dollar because our government requires us to use the dollar and nothing will change that. Investors purchase Bitcoin as a store of value. It's an alternative to investing in gold, real estate, or art. It's already received mass adoption and investors have poured 50 billion dollars into the publicly traded ETF's in just over 2 months. Your arguments for or against Bitcoin are irrelevant to Bitcoins future. Invest in it or don't invest in it. It's ultimately your decision.

Thanks. I don’t understand crypto. I wish I had listened to my buddy that told me to put a 100 bucks in it when it was .50.

I have always thought that it was more an alternate to other assets to hedge against inflation. Guess I knew one thing I didn’t know I knew.

 

[fmyth]

Thanks. I don’t understand crypto. I wish I had listened to my buddy that told me to put a 100 bucks in it when it was .50.

I have always thought that it was more an alternate to other assets to hedge against inflation. Guess I knew one thing I didn’t know I knew.

I don't think you are too late. We are less than 30 days from the halving which has historically kicked off an 18 month bull run. Cathie Wood of ARK Invest just upped her 2030 BTC prediction from 1.5M to 3.8M. I still think we hit 150k this year and 250-300k in 2025.

 

[CorbLand]

I don't think you are too late. We are less than 30 days from the halving which has historically kicked off an 18 month bull run. Cathie Wood of ARK Invest just upped her 2030 BTC prediction from 1.5M to 3.8M. I still think we hit 150k this year and 250-300k in 2025.

I have an automatic buy set each month and own a little bit but nothing substantial.

 

[Stave]

Invest in it or don't invest in it. It's ultimately your decision.

Sometimes the most interesting debates happen because people are in 99% agreement. I think most of us on this chat would agree with the following:

The problem:
Government control of money and currency
Government-set interest rates

The solution:
Free markets for money and currency
No taxation or regulation of gold or bitcoin
Lenders set rates and compete for borrowers

I will do what I can to keep bitcoin free of regulation and taxation, even if I never own it again. I want you all, the market, to decide our monetary future

 

[*zap*]

the government will never relinquish control unless there is an Armageddon event and even then their primary focus would be continuity of control.

 

[Craig Van Arsdale]

Since no one answered my question about arbitrage, and I really would like to know the answer to that question, I'm going to reframe it:

Think about the incentives structure. During the adoption phase of bitcoin, there is an extremely strong incentive to be an early adopter because every person who begins hodling subsequent to the early adopters are contributing to the early adopters’ nominal wealth.

Eventually, adoption will plateau. It could be at 20, 40, 80 or 100% of the currency market. Once it plateaus, people's mindset will change. The incentive structure will reverse. If anyone else gets out before you, they are destroying your nominal wealth. There will be a very strong incentive to be the first person to get out.

The price will fall and bitcoin doesn't have a natural price floor. Commodities have price floors. If the price of gold falls far enough, jewelers will start buying lots of it. So will artists, electronics manufacturers, and other producers. Gold is not only monetary. It is also used by people who intend to produce things.

Commodities are never down for the count. The price never goes to zero and they never vanish from the market. Bitcoin can go to zero and can vanish from the market. Bitcoin depends on people being ideologically committed to its monetary purpose. It has no productive purpose to fall back on. For bitcoin to maintain a share of the currency market, a percentage of the population must choose to hold it despite a perennial incentive to selfishly get rid of it.

Prove me wrong. Demonstrate that bitcoin has a price floor.

Here you go!

Bitcoin absolutely has a price floor because it requires energy in the real world to be expended to create bitcoins and to secure the network.

 

[Craig Van Arsdale]

At the end of the day, bitcoin is nothing more than electrons residing on silicon chips

Bitcoins are digital

Books are digital

Images are digital

Memory is digital

Code is digital

Maps are digital

Music is digital

Video is digital

Money is digital

Energy is digital


Care to explain in first principles how digital things do not have value?

 

[Craig Van Arsdale]

There is no risk in not adopting bitcoin. If you walk into a grocery store someday and they only take bitcoin, it is because the price of bitcoin has become more stable than other currencies, with a smaller spread, more liquidity and a predictable price.

At that point, you take whatever assets you have (skills, labor, stocks, income, real estate, commodities) convert into a little bit of BTC and buy your groceries. Nothing to worry about. You will only need enough to pay your monthly bills.

But your grocer of course will be submitting sales tax to the govt in BTC. That is one way they will know whose wallet is whose.

If everything you desire to purchase is declining in value in Bitcoin terms then there is in fact a risk to not owning it.

 

[Craig Van Arsdale]

the government will never relinquish control unless there is an Armageddon event and even then their primary focus would be continuity of control.

They are losing control not by choice but by one legal battle and political blunder after another. It'll be death by 1000 cuts by the time they fully lose control. They started losing control in 1971.

 

[Craig Van Arsdale]

What inexpensive crypto has the best outlook for increases at this point in time?

Bitcoin

 

[Craig Van Arsdale]

Not a single person can answer me about the risks of bitcoin. Either you have made an evaluation and dismissed it or purposely put your head in the sand.

The risks are that it is

Banned

Hacked

Copied


Do your own research on each topic and invest accordingly

 

[Craig Van Arsdale]

I think that clarifies our different views. I think that value is objective. It is not determined by markets. Prices are the market's approximation of something's value.

Value is the sum of something's qualities. It doesn't have a number.

I simply mean that many people choose to buy bitcoins because of their ideals. People's idealism seems to be a significant force in the bitcoin market. It causes price momentum as people rally to the cause. The danger is that no asset is tethering their ideals to objective value. Bitcoin will live or die on people's opinions about it. If it dies, HODLers will have no value to hold.

Yes, I think the distinction between money and currency is crucial

The amount of currency I hold relative to my assets is as small as possible . . . and yes I'm livid that my currency is being debased into nothing.

I realize that the dollar is steadily declining, but on a monthly basis, paycheck to paycheck, bill to bill, it is stable enough to function as currency. That is all I mean when I say the dollar is relatively stable

So all things are made of commodities and all commodities are traded in "open" markets but prices of goods are not driven by market participants?

Bitcoin is backed by energy! You have not done the work to understand this.

So then why worry about what the STATES definition of money is if its stable enough to you and Bitcoin stores your wealth perfectly?