Wyoming Draw

[bm-55]

General S - no dice at 5 points

 

[String&stick]

Got my boy and I cow tags!

I did scroll through the draw odds and found it interesting that with 642 max points holders coming in, there weren't many tags drawn with 19 points, and some of the usual suspects went for 18.

It's hard for me to comprehend but it appears as if there is a good segment of max points holders on who are either applying with a party that has less points than them or not applying at all.

By my count (which could be off) there were 111 max points applications, and that includes applications with <19 but >18. Granted many could be party apps with a few people at max points but it's still surprising the number isn't higher given they are the front of the line.

Just an interesting points tidbit I saw.

 

[Lawnboi]

2 in my party didn’t draw general W with 5. Looks like they got beat by the odds.

General W for me.

 

[three5x5s]

No tag, Looks like I'll be a miniature pack mule this year.

 

[OlderGobbler]

Gohunt's predictive odds are off..... in a bad way. lol

In what way?

 

[Wheels]

Withdrew my app when I drew an Arizona tag, will have 14 points next year.

 

[wapitibob]

Got my boy and I cow tags!

I did scroll through the draw odds and found it interesting that with 642 max points holders coming in, there weren't many tags drawn with 19 points, and some of the usual suspects went for 18.

It's hard for me to comprehend but it appears as if there is a good segment of max points holders on who are either applying with a party that has less points than them or not applying at all.

By my count (which could be off) there were 111 max points applications, and that includes applications with <19 but >18. Granted many could be party apps with a few people at max points but it's still surprising the number isn't higher given they are the front of the line.

Just an interesting points tidbit I saw.

Less than half of all applicants with points bother to apply for a hunt.

 

[HairyScandinavian]

Less than half of all applicants with points bother to apply for a hunt.

They didn't get max points by burning them. Wonder how many will be perpetually too busy and just die without cashing them in.

 

[String&stick]

Less than half of all applicants with points bother to apply for a hunt.

I know but you would think with max points a few more would be trying

 

[jchamwv]

another Type 6. this makes my 6th September going to Wyoming. Hopefully it's more successful than the previous 5.

 

[Tman24]

Successful W Gen
I burned 8pts, my son burned 7pts, & my bum buddy with his measly 3pts brought us down to 6pts for the group.

 

[S.Clancy]

Gohunt's predictive odds are off..... in a bad way. lol

Noooo....really.....

 

[hunt1up]

I put myself and both kids in for tough draw apps with less than 5% random odds since I've got a lot of irons in the fire with other hunts and figured we wouldn't draw anything. I checked mine, nothing. My daughter's app, nothing. Checked my son's, SUCCESSFUL. This is the first year he can apply in WY and he pulled a 100-2 tag in the random draw with 0 points. Looked like it took about 12 points otherwise. Yeah it's an antler restricted hunt but whatever. Now I gotta figure out how to add another trip to the calendar. Good problem to have.

 

[mhammond86]

Successful for LE tag in regular random with less than 3% odds. 2nd time in 3 years. Wild!

 

[cornfedkiller]

They saved points forever, finally decided to go somewhere in Wyoming and the outfitter pooled their points with other applicants.

But if they pooled their points with other applicants, they would be part of the average and it wouldn't list them as a "13 point applicant" or whatever.. It would just list the party average in the stats.

 

[HairyScandinavian]

Cow tag for me and a bud and my son, waiting on word from my wife about her SGen but hopeful she'll score that one.

No SGen for the wife with 5 points, bummer. Just the cow party for us.

 

[deepandsteep]

Gohunt's predictive odds are off..... in a bad way. lol

Probably 5 years ago I filled out an invite lengthy survey from GoHunt. One of my suggestions was to consider predictive odds. The response was saying they never would. I was surprised when they rolled it out this year. Being intimate with NR odds in many states, I could tell some of their predictions were way way off. The Wyoming draw illustrates this. I had a buddy 3 points above what they are saying would be 100% this year on the predictive odds.....he didn't pull the tag and he was in the special! (To be clear, I love GoHunt and use it regularly, probably open it 200 times a year.) I chat fairly regularly with Ron Wold, stat guy in Oregon who has an open source site for Oregon hunting odds. He's been doing it for a couple of decades. It's not an exact science but he provides predictive odds and they are nearly spot on every year. He mentioned anyone who starts running predictive hunting odds will take a few years to get it right, given nuance across many issues such as flux in apps, unit allocations, guide welfare allocation impacts, etc....let alone the very complicated math. My guess is they will get it sorted but this year will harbor some pain, and some resentment from many an applicant.

 

[cbat]

E tag here with 0 points

 

[pirogue]

Apparently WY notifies outfitters through a separate process.

That’s why WY holds your money for 4 months. You don’t think they’re smart enough to have 2 notification processes, any quicker, do you?

 

[yogru]

No dice. Put in for a B tag but unsuccessful.