Wyoming south draw predictions

[bz_711]

6+ should be 100%...need to find one buddy with 7pts

 

[fmyth]

I can see that happening after the split. So in years prior did more people go to what are now W-gen units?
Not to drag this out but once again with a Fixed number of non-res tags being same all those years I’m still curious how did it get progressively worse?
must be WY res population growing and that’s where the increased pressure came from? Would that be fair to say?

And my guess compared to all the CO units along WY/CO border it’s still not nearly as pressured as CO?

I hunt in the SW corner and we lost a lot of animals in the winter of 22-23.

My friend is interviewed in this video about the thousands of pronghorns that died on his ranch and the steps that have been taken to make sure it doesn't happen again. Many mule deer and elk died migrating out and many that lived through the winter did not return. The whole area hasn't yet fully recovered.

I won't live long enough to draw an elk or pronghorn tag to hunt on my friends ranch in the video above. I have always hunted along the WY/CO line on whatever side we've drawn for. I'm there every year for deer or elk either hunting my own tag or helping friends and family. In my opinion it's been going downhill for 20 years and took a huge hit in 22-23. I have another friend that has a ranch in CO unit 4/5 and I used to hunt it but now there's so few animals remaining I don't feel right about killing anything on it and have stopped applying for tags there. Even the owner has stopped hunting on his own ranch.

 

[Laramie]

No to choose your weapon, that is not Wyoming.
Maybe lower that NR quota instead.

The NR aren't generally making two trips for archery and then rifle. You and I both know that a large % of residents do hunt both. Lower the NR quota all you want but it won't change what this region has become.

If they put it to a vote, I'm guessing you would be surprised how many residents would prefer choose your weapon for the general areas. I would vote yes in a heart beat and wouldn't likely pursue elk with a rifle again unless i drew LQ.

 

[LostArra]

What are the #s of NR vs Resident and is it really a problem of NR #s ? Or as Laramie said is it generally more people in the mtns, or is it something else driving the elk behavior? Are the elk #s way down and overall the tag allocation needs to drop?

Good info here:

Thread 'Wyoming Elk with Biologist Lee Knox'

Dec 22, 2025

@Jaden Bales first solo episode on the Rokcast.

https://www.rokslide.com/wyoming-elk-with-biologist-lee-knox/

If I were an elk hunter, I'd be all over this. They talk about different tactics for different seasons, how aerial surveys can be influenced by weather, minimum bull:cow ratios for growing big bulls and a lot more.

(I've never met Lee but the fact that he's a .270 WSM fan, he's gotta be really intelligent guy! lol)

• robby denning
• Replies: 11
• Forum: Rokcast

• 

Key takeaways:
-Elk are smart.
-Hunters don't scout enough. OnX has brainwashed hunters to believe they can just buy points and sit at home in front of a computer and figure out where the elk are and where they go. After 5+ years they finally draw a tag and are disappointed that things are different than they appeared on the screen.
-Go hunt cows and learn the area.
-Elk are smart

 

[Bluumoon]

Good info here:

Thread 'Wyoming Elk with Biologist Lee Knox'

Dec 22, 2025

@Jaden Bales first solo episode on the Rokcast.

https://www.rokslide.com/wyoming-elk-with-biologist-lee-knox/

If I were an elk hunter, I'd be all over this. They talk about different tactics for different seasons, how aerial surveys can be influenced by weather, minimum bull:cow ratios for growing big bulls and a lot more.

(I've never met Lee but the fact that he's a .270 WSM fan, he's gotta be really intelligent guy! lol)

• robby denning
• Replies: 11
• Forum: Rokcast

• 

Key takeaways:
-Elk are smart.
-Hunters don't scout enough. OnX has brainwashed hunters to believe they can just buy points and sit at home in front of a computer and figure out where the elk are and where they go. After 5+ years they finally draw a tag and are disappointed that things are different than they appeared on the screen.
-Go hunt cows and learn the area.
-Elk are smart

Elk are predictable, at least the ones w out big antlers.
We’ve had a couple good years of cow hunting WY, looks like I have a few more years of cow hunting in WY to find the big bigs.

 

[longtail]

I have the Solution! Give out transferable Landowner tags to all landowners who own land in the south Region that butts up against Public. They will scare all the elk back onto public!

 

[cnelk]

There were areas in the South region you could draw a RP cow tag 90% of the time.

Not anymore

 

[The_Jim]

Helped my buddy hunt the South gen this season. It had otc Colorado vibes for sure. Lots of atvs and huge camps. Guys pounding the timber mid-day. We were successful with a rifle but I give a lot of that credit to him for going out with his bow in September and a scouting trip in August. Also camp here with my family in the summer, so very familiar with the area.

I’d guess it’ll go up. There’s a bunch of guys like me sitting on 11 or 12 points that can’t draw anything exciting and just want to be done with all those points.

 

[mulecreek]

Right nim just trying to understand from those that have hunted the area for many years and say it’s going downhill. Is that increase coming from RESidents only?
NonRes have been limited in number for Gen tags at same level long before anyone said there’s pressure issues and that number has not changed.
So it has to come from growing WY population and their regular resident OTC Gen tag numbers going up ?

This is not accurate. Prior to the change to NR Gen regions total Full Priced NR elk licenses were capped at 7250. LQ licenses were drawn first, 16% for NR's, whatever that number came up to was then subtracted from the 7250 quota to determine how many NR Gen licenses would be issued. Over time, as elk herds grew throughout Wyo the total number of LQ tags increased. Therefore the number of NR LQ tags increased. As this increased, the number of NR Gen tags decreased by the same amount, 7250 - NR FP LQ = NR Gen tags. This caused issues for Wyoming Outfitters and Guides Association members as this reduction in NR Gen tags over time was causing it to take their preferred clients longer to draw NR Gen tags. Even though the total number of NR FP elk tags stayed the same, 7250, the ones that outfitted in Gen units were seeing negative draw effects.

When G&F was directed to remove the 7250 quota and create NR Gen elk regions they used best available data, hunter survey reports to determine which units NR elk hunters hunted. Dubious at best. They then took this information over a 3 or 5 year average (cant recall which) and started with that number to determine how many NR gen tags to issue per region. As this was presented to the Commission over the course of a year, the number of regions decreased and the suggested number of NR Gen tags for the West and South regions were increase from the prior years averages to account for what they felt might be inaccuracies in the data. Ultimately the NR Gen tag numbers for West and South in the first year of NR Gen regions, 2024, that were approved by the Commission were an increase over the gradual decrease from the prior quota methodology and then further increased to account for data inaccuracies. These same numbers were approved for the second year of NR Gen regions, 2025, except for an increase of 500 NR Gen tags in the Eastern region.

I spoke at the 2025 season setting meeting of the Commission that I and others that hunt the West region saw a noticeable increase in the number of NR elk hunters in General Areas. I requested a reduction in the Western region by the same amount that was added to the Western region to make up for data inaccuracies. Sy Gilliland, the then President of WOGA, who runs a camp in the same area I hunt stated that he and his guides saw the exact same thing with increased NR elk hunters but he said it was due to fires in other Western region Gen areas and urged the Commission to stay with the same inflated numbers. Ultimately the Commission agreed with Sy. I suspect 2026 NR Western and Southern Gen regions will have similar tag numbers as 2024 and 2025.

If longtime hunters are feeling like the last couple of years have shown an increase in Gen elk pressure in areas of the South and West regions, it's because you have and it was done by design by the G&F and Commission.

 

[mulecreek]

So it has to come from growing WY population and their regular resident OTC Gen tag numbers going up ?

Wyoming Res General Elk licenses sold 2020 - 2024: 27652, 26420, 27198, 26138, 26893.
Wyoming NR General Elk licenses sold 2020-2024: 4175, 3927, 3821, 3671, 4505

 

[Jethro]

Pressure we encountered in 2024 was lowest since 2015. Never had any issues with hikers or atv.

Elk moving earlier off higher/public for lower/private not isolated to just south general areas.

 

[BadDogPSD]

Thought this was informative regarding the Laramie Range.

In the Laramie Mountains, too many elk and no easy fixes - WyoFile

With no end in sight for long-term overpopulation problem, state task force is exploring alternative ways of issuing hunting licenses to increase pressure and dislodge animals from ranchland refuges.

wyofile.com

 

[Lzimm34]

The Laramie range is a completely different problem with how much private land there is and the amount of land locked public. They hand out unlimited cow elk tags and it focuses the pressure super hard on the public that is accessible.

 

[HiMtnHntr]

Unlimited cow tags should only be good on private land if they want to try to disperse elk off private. All they currently do is push what remaining elk there are onto private which is where a majority are taken.

The pressure in the south region is bad. It’s still possible to find elk on public but it often isn’t that much fun. But that is just my opinion and I am getting old. I’ve had more fun hunting cows with less pressure to deal with.

However, I don’t support changes to seasons as far as weapon choice for residents. I could see where a season split to have nonresidents choose could benefit nonresidents and help alleviate pressure. How many nonresidents are going to come out multiple times to hunt anyway? They mostly have to pick their one time to go…

 

[Indian Summer]

Lots. When a non resident hunter waits 6 years just to draw one elk license AND it will likely be another 6 before he’s lucky enough to come back you can be sure he’ll do everything he can to punch the tag. Or at least enjoy as much hunting as possible. Lots of hunters choose Wyoming or Montana over other states just for that reason, the license is good in archery and rifle. Take that away and you have changed everything. Plus, you’re going down the wrong path. Use your season, choose your weapon etc. More rules just means less opportunity. That’s never good.

 

[CMF]

How many nonresidents are going to come out multiple times to hunt anyway? They mostly have to pick their one time to go…

I would, did it the year we hunted MT.

Elk moving earlier off higher/public for lower/private not isolated to just south general areas.

We saw elk down low on private in MT after the first week of archery in 21'.

 

[wysongdog]

No to choose your weapon, that is not Wyoming.
Maybe lower that NR quota instead.

I’m on the fence on this. It would help the bow hunting if people had to commit to it instead of abunch of hunters going out in end of August buying a crossbow and running around the forest blowing on a bugle and muddying up everything. That being said it sure is nice after getting your a$$ handed to you bow hunting to be able to hunt with a rifle in oct. I have started applying for type 9 tags to fix the problem for me.

 

[High Climber]

OP I think your predictions are probable. 100% with 6… maybe better after all this Defense on the South Region

 

[sneaky]

This is not accurate. Prior to the change to NR Gen regions total Full Priced NR elk licenses were capped at 7250. LQ licenses were drawn first, 16% for NR's, whatever that number came up to was then subtracted from the 7250 quota to determine how many NR Gen licenses would be issued. Over time, as elk herds grew throughout Wyo the total number of LQ tags increased. Therefore the number of NR LQ tags increased. As this increased, the number of NR Gen tags decreased by the same amount, 7250 - NR FP LQ = NR Gen tags. This caused issues for Wyoming Outfitters and Guides Association members as this reduction in NR Gen tags over time was causing it to take their preferred clients longer to draw NR Gen tags. Even though the total number of NR FP elk tags stayed the same, 7250, the ones that outfitted in Gen units were seeing negative draw effects.

When G&F was directed to remove the 7250 quota and create NR Gen elk regions they used best available data, hunter survey reports to determine which units NR elk hunters hunted. Dubious at best. They then took this information over a 3 or 5 year average (cant recall which) and started with that number to determine how many NR gen tags to issue per region. As this was presented to the Commission over the course of a year, the number of regions decreased and the suggested number of NR Gen tags for the West and South regions were increase from the prior years averages to account for what they felt might be inaccuracies in the data. Ultimately the NR Gen tag numbers for West and South in the first year of NR Gen regions, 2024, that were approved by the Commission were an increase over the gradual decrease from the prior quota methodology and then further increased to account for data inaccuracies. These same numbers were approved for the second year of NR Gen regions, 2025, except for an increase of 500 NR Gen tags in the Eastern region.

I spoke at the 2025 season setting meeting of the Commission that I and others that hunt the West region saw a noticeable increase in the number of NR elk hunters in General Areas. I requested a reduction in the Western region by the same amount that was added to the Western region to make up for data inaccuracies. Sy Gilliland, the then President of WOGA, who runs a camp in the same area I hunt stated that he and his guides saw the exact same thing with increased NR elk hunters but he said it was due to fires in other Western region Gen areas and urged the Commission to stay with the same inflated numbers. Ultimately the Commission agreed with Sy. I suspect 2026 NR Western and Southern Gen regions will have similar tag numbers as 2024 and 2025.

If longtime hunters are feeling like the last couple of years have shown an increase in Gen elk pressure in areas of the South and West regions, it's because you have and it was done by design by the G&F and Commission.

Sy isn't going to give up a single tag. If there were only ten elk left in Wyoming he'd ask for 100 tags to hunt them.

Sent from my SM-S918U using Tapatalk