WSA 22-02 affects Sheep hunters in GMU 24A and 26B (Dalton Hwy Corridor)

[akbrett]

i firmly believe the population declines are due to weather events not killing “all the older rams”. some of the other mountain ranges that haven’t had the weather events seem to be fairing well under full curl management, ones that get considerably more hunting pressure than the brooks range walk in areas, which have a very low success rate. the reason sheep populations were doing better under 3/4 and 7/8 is because they weren’t having warm weather/rain events followed by freezing. it’s been a series of crappy weather creating the population decline not from over harvesting.

unit 24a was 17 rams in 2020
unit 26b a total of 15rams west of the sag river would be the difficult one to pinpoint being it’s just a portion of a GMU-but it says 3 people harvested from a highway vehicle. i highly doubt harvesting 3 rams is going to cause the sheep to go extinct

is there any way to look at the subsistence harvest data?

sheep numbers are down and so are success rates. which will lower hunter participation in these areas until the population rebounds if the weather allows

 

[WalterH]

i firmly believe the population declines are due to weather events not killing “all the older rams”. some of the other mountain ranges that haven’t had the weather events seem to be fairing well under full curl management, ones that get considerably more hunting pressure than the brooks range walk in areas, which have a very low success rate. the reason sheep populations were doing better under 3/4 and 7/8 is because they weren’t having warm weather/rain events followed by freezing. it’s been a series of crappy weather creating the population decline not from over harvesting.

unit 24a was 17 rams in 2020
unit 26b a total of 15rams west of the sag river would be the difficult one to pinpoint being it’s just a portion of a GMU-but it says 3 people harvested from a highway vehicle. i highly doubt harvesting 3 rams is going to cause the sheep to go extinct

is there any way to look at the subsistence harvest data?

sheep numbers are down and so are success rates. which will lower hunter participation in these areas until the population rebounds if the weather allows

Agreed.

For the argument that sub-full curl harvest is better for sheep populations than FC/8 regulation to carry any weight, relying only on past harvest and population data to form that conclusion, all other variables effecting sheep populations (weather, predation, etc.) would have to have been equal in each time period. History and data show that has obviously not been the case, hence the spurious correlation reference. Harvest is always going to be directly proportional to abundance of sheep as long as hunter participation remains about the same.

Isolated sheep populations, such as those in the NPS system that aren't hunted, have generally followed the same abundance trends that hunted populations have followed. Hunter harvest is, statistically speaking, insignificant when it comes to population level abundance.

I think what is really at the heart of these conversation is and should be the desired hunter experience. The unfortunate truth is that we can do very little to manage populations for more animals. We can manage people to get closer to what people want with regard to a hunting experience. I think most of us want the option for OTC hunts, where we aren't tripping over other people, where we have a decent chance at bringing a legal ram home. With declining populations of animals and roughly the same number of people pursuing them, that combination of things or desired experience has become very difficult to achieve.

The lack of adequate leadership theory and potential population level impact is intriguing to me and I agree, it is a theory at best, and unsupported by any data that I am aware of. I'd be curious to get a bio's take on that sometime.

The most recent ADFG surveys for 24A/26 don't really jive with the observations noted in the WSA.

I would be willing to bet that subsistence impacts are minimal and tend to be concentrated to pretty specific areas. It is interesting that in 19C for example, all rural residents can kill 7/8 rams, and 19C has largely been held up as the worst of the worst for sheep numbers at the moment.

 

[Bambistew]

There have been some attempts to explain this. Personally, I find Jack Reakoff’s explanation more plausible than the other one I have heard: that the younger rams need the older rams to show them where/how to migrate.(I have a hard time believing that the 6 and 7 year olds need the wise old 8 and 9 year olds to show them the way out of the storm. Sounds a bit too Disney to me)

Everyone seems to forget that ewes get old like rams, and that young rams run with ewes for the first few years of their life, and are found with them throughout the year. Once they branch off into bachelor groups that's a bit different, but they are usually not that far apart (ewes and ram groups). Also how much energy do young rams exert over older rams, and why would it really be a determent to them but not the older rams? Are the youngsters just that weak? That hypotheses doesn't hold water, nor does it match up with any other ungulate population, wild or domestic. Somehow Dall sheep are unique? I don't believe there is any study to show any of that being true.

Another thing to consider, is that FC rams in parts of the Wrangells are often 5-6 years old, where as in some areas of the Brooks they could be 9-10. Which FC rams are smarter and why haven't the populations crashed in the Wrangells because of lack of "old" sheep? The don't live as long in the Wrangells. Why? does it have anything to do with being FC earlier, or is just because they killed themselves by rutting too hard as a young age?

None of them have the answers, and the fact that Jack is using anecdotal evidence and "oral" history as evidence makes it even less plausible. People remember the good and bad times far more than normal conditions. Not to discount anecdotal evidence, but without some sort of documentation it can easily be made up.

 

[Cheechako]

I would argue that jack’s argument is empirical while alot of the explanations i’ve seen here are theoretical.
Unfortunately we can’t test jack’s hypotheses or quantify uncertainty without hard data, but that doesn’t mean local’s observations of trends and patterns are wrong.

 

[AKjon]

"Current harvest is taking all full curl and some of the just under full curl."

The presentation ADF&G did over the winter directly contradicted this statement. According to their reports hunter harvest had much less affect on population than weather & predation... they also stated that over the past couple of years the average sheep harvested was 9 years or older, indicating that clearly hunters are not taking ALL of the 8 year old rams. Plenty of legal rams are living beyond 8 years old.


"My real worry: once the Feds close hunting, will it ever reopen?"

This is my biggest concern as well... I dont even hunt that area (although I would like the option to in the future) but I can only imagine this will concentrate pressure into other areas that remain open.

 

[D.W.T]

I am grateful for the information shared on this situation as it may affect my planned hunt for this year. Does anyone have any insight into when a decision might be announced? Hopefully it will be sooner rather than later as we are already at the 90 day window. I'm already working on alternate options for the season, but it's pretty late in the game. Thanks again for any insight.

 

[JBrown1]

I am grateful for the information shared on this situation as it may affect my planned hunt for this year. Does anyone have any insight into when a decision might be announced? Hopefully it will be sooner rather than later as we are already at the 90 day window. I'm already working on alternate options for the season, but it's pretty late in the game. Thanks again for any insight.

I believe they will rule on the proposal in June.

 

[Nick Muche]

And just like that the Feds close off another area.

 

[Mykolaivka887]

And just like that the Feds close off another area.

Yeah, don't think the State is going to be able to wrestle that back from the Interior Dept anytime soon. Might be gone forever.

 

[fatbacks]

I can only hope that these actions by the FSB get so bad that the whole tool implodes on them and they lose the ability. It is so beyond ridiculous


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[CodyAK]

I was combing through the notes from previous meetings. There was a gentleman from the OSM who stated that individual agencies ( to include ADFG ) could have taken action to prevent the FSB from acting on this proposal back in February. Feds could’ve cut subsistence permits and eliminated ewe harvest in 24. I know harvest had been low for everyone but if we’re concerned about numbers… it doesn’t make since to allow ewe harvest in my mind. But it seemed as if every organization wanted to blame the state for not issuing an EO while they could’ve made changes before proposing to the FSB. There was no collaboration between the organizations and the state. I think there could’ve been a solution that would’ve made all parties somewhat happy.

I do think numbers were skewed and Jack made made a claim that there was more sub legal rams taken last year than the overall FC harvest in 24A/26B. I was too busy driving and arguing with a toddler to catch the whole statement he made

 

[wantj43]

Everyone seems to forget that ewes get old like rams, and that young rams run with ewes for the first few years of their life, and are found with them throughout the year. Once they branch off into bachelor groups that's a bit different, but they are usually not that far apart (ewes and ram groups). Also how much energy do young rams exert over older rams, and why would it really be a determent to them but not the older rams? Are the youngsters just that weak? That hypotheses doesn't hold water, nor does it match up with any other ungulate population, wild or domestic. Somehow Dall sheep are unique? I don't believe there is any study to show any of that being true.

Another thing to consider, is that FC rams in parts of the Wrangells are often 5-6 years old, where as in some areas of the Brooks they could be 9-10. Which FC rams are smarter and why haven't the populations crashed in the Wrangells because of lack of "old" sheep? The don't live as long in the Wrangells. Why? does it have anything to do with being FC earlier, or is just because they killed themselves by rutting too hard as a young age?

None of them have the answers, and the fact that Jack is using anecdotal evidence and "oral" history as evidence makes it even less plausible. People remember the good and bad times far more than normal conditions. Not to discount anecdotal evidence, but without some sort of documentation it can easily be made up.

Well put

 

[Mykolaivka887]

I can only hope that these actions by the FSB get so bad that the whole tool implodes on them and they lose the ability. It is so beyond ridiculous


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You never know what's going to come along in November 2022 and November 2024. But realistically, Congress isn't going to readdress the D-2 lands legislation. I believe we're stuck with the Interior Dept calling the shots, into perpetuity.

 

[B_Reynolds_AK]

If anyone comes across a detailed map of the effected closure area, it would be super helpful if you could share it here. I asked Tom Lohuis, but have yet to hear back.


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[Mykolaivka887]

Pretty straightforward language in the final writ, but basically speaking, all federal lands west of the Dalton, in GMU 24 and GMU 26 ......

 

[Nick Muche]

I wish it was just west of the Dalton, but that’s not the case…

It’s actually all of 24A and then 26B west of the Sag….

 

[Mykolaivka887]

I wish it was just west of the Dalton, but that’s not the case…

It’s actually all of 24A and then 26B west of the Sag….

Affirmative

 

[fatbacks]

You never know what's going to come along in November 2022 and November 2024. But realistically, Congress isn't going to readdress the D-2 lands legislation. I believe we're stuck with the Interior Dept calling the shots, into perpetuity.

I know... I kind of think it will have to go the route of the Sturgeon Supreme Court Case... someone is going to have to get fined/charged and then fight it in the courts.

 

[Mykolaivka887]

I know... I kind of think it will have to go the route of the Sturgeon Supreme Court Case... someone is going to have to get fined/charged and then fight it in the courts.

I was thinking along the lines of legislative. The Dept of Interior is protected by the law. A legal case won't succeed. However, legislative would be political suicide for any US congressman or senator, unless both houses of government were entirely conservative. Even still, not likely that anyone's ever going to introduce legislation in that regard. The law has stood forty-some years and isn't likely to change.

 

[Nick Muche]

If this was a subsistence issue, which at it's core I believe it was since the OSM took it on... the logical first step (behind eliminating ewe harvest where applicable) would have been to eliminate the moose permits within the corridor so that the 9 locals would have ample opportunity to road hunt like they do anyhow without any competition for the highest meat yield animal in the region.