What Newer Rifle Rounds Do You Think Will or Will Not Stick Around?

[MedServ60Driver]

In the past 5 or so years we've seen a slew of new rounds coming out to fill various niches. Some are starting to cement themselves in the mainstream, while others either remain a niche round or fade into obscurity. Of these, which rounds do you feel have the potential to stick around vs. fade away? I'll start:

Stay/Become More Popular:
7mm PRC (like a 7mm RM but better, with Hornady's marketing machine behind it)
6mm ARC (near .243 Win performance out of an AR platform, enough said)
.350 Legend (this one surprised me, but I underestimated the demand for a straight wall hunting cartridge that fits in an AR)

Hang in there, but remain a niche round:
300 PRC (not enough real world improvement over the other 300 mags IMO)
6mm Creedmoor (doesn't do anything a .243 can't, realistically)
.400 Legend (doesn't improve enough on the .350 Legend)

Fade Away:
.224 Valkyrie (An immensely capable round by any measure, but I don't think the average AR owner is interested in ANOTHER .224" round for their rifle, despite improved performance)
6.8 Westerner (It's too bad that they selected the .277" bullet. This one might have had staying power except for some reason Americans don't like .277", and the 7mm PRC came shortly on its heels)

 

[eric1115]

6mm CM will (should) gain popularity. It doesn't do anything a properly twisted, hand loaded .243 with long magazine can't do, just like 6.5 CM doesn't do anything a fast twist hand loaded .260rem can't do. How is the .260 doing now?

.224 Valk is dead in the water, especially now that 22ARC is on scene.

22CM will gain popularity, and .22-250 will fade.

I bet 6mmARC will kill 6.5 Grendel.

I bet one of the 6mm gamer cartridges will win out, and the rest will become even more niche than they already are. Perhaps the 6ARC will be the one that gets major factory rifle/ammo support/options (already starting to) and it doesn't stamp out the rest. I bet it would need to be a .473 case in order to win the BR vs dasher vs GT vs XC race.

6.5-284 will continue to fade as the 6.5PRC gets even more popular.

I do think (maybe exposing my own bias/echo chamber) that there will be a hot but not smoking fast 6mm that gets traction once Hornady, Berger, etc starts making a 115-120 .320+ G7 bullet. 6PRC probably.

Looking at this list, I really look like a Hornady fanboi. I'm really not. I own a 6mmARC, but shoot mostly .223 and .243AI right now. They have just done a good job of making the optimized .243, .260, 7mmRM, etc available without custom rifles or hand loading with the 6CM, 6.5CM, 7PRC, etc factory rifles and ammo.

 

[BuckRut]

I've heard that 6UM is over-hyped.

 

[RockAndSage]

6mm CM will (should) gain popularity. It doesn't do anything a properly twisted, hand loaded .243 with long magazine can't do, just like 6.5 CM doesn't do anything a fast twist hand loaded .260rem can't do. How is the .260 doing now?

.224 Valk is dead in the water, especially now that 22ARC is on scene.

22CM will gain popularity, and .22-250 will fade.

I bet 6mmARC will kill 6.5 Grendel.

I bet one of the 6mm gamer cartridges will win out, and the rest will become even more niche than they already are. Perhaps the 6ARC will be the one that gets major factory rifle/ammo support/options (already starting to) and it doesn't stamp out the rest. I bet it would need to be a .473 case in order to win the BR vs dasher vs GT vs XC race.

6.5-284 will continue to fade as the 6.5PRC gets even more popular.

I do think (maybe exposing my own bias/echo chamber) that there will be a hot but not smoking fast 6mm that gets traction once Hornady, Berger, etc starts making a 115-120 .320+ G7 bullet. 6PRC probably.

Looking at this list, I really look like a Hornady fanboi. I'm really not. I own a 6mmARC, but shoot mostly .223 and .243AI right now. They have just done a good job of making the optimized .243, .260, 7mmRM, etc available without custom rifles or hand loading with the 6CM, 6.5CM, 7PRC, etc factory rifles and ammo.

I think you really hit it on the head here. The points about ARCs are interesting too...people definitely want something hotter than .223 as an option in small-frame ARs, but for various reasons 6.5 Grendel, .22 Nosler, .224 Valk, etc, just haven't hit home as hard as they should have. I have to wonder how much of it has been the lack of quality mags, or mags that don't look stupid. It's telling that Geissele just came out with a quality, not-ugly 6ARC mag (and sells it for $125ea).

I'd add to the dead pool: The 22 Nosler, 26 Nosler, and 33 Nosler, .325 WSM, .17 WSM

Alive but dying, and not really niche enough to see many or any new factory chambered guns in them: .270WSM, 30 Nosler, Wilson's .300 Ham'r, any of the SAUMs (trending down and will likely die out once current barrels are burned out, and people rechamber to more current or available chamberings), any of the RUMs (trending down, probably in a death spiral), 6.8 SPC

Niche (will continue to have reasonably common & available factory loadings): 27 & 28 Nosler (trending down), 6.8 Western (almost DOA but slightly trending up), .300 PRC (trending up), anything Weatherby (6.5 RPM, 338 RPM, 6.5-300), .280AI (may get killed off out of factory loadings by 7PRC), .300 Norma (Trending flat, may trend up with DoD adoption), .375 Ruger (trending flat), .416 Ruger (Trending down), 8.6 Blackout (trending up), 6.5 Grendel (trending down with the new ARCs)

May survive to be common factory chamberings: .22 ARC, 6mm ARC, 7PRC, .277 Fury (Sig's ecosystem and government contracts, etc)

 

[Rippey715]

All the PRCs are here to stay. They are just modernized versions of classic magnums that take advantage of new data about twist rates, seating depth, modern ballistics with modern accurate bullet offerings. And already even the spinoffs of the PRCs are gaining popularity. 25 PRC, 7-6.5PRC, 6-7PRC, 30-7PRC, 7-300PRC.

25 Creedmoor is going to be pretty popular when it hits the market, probably this fall. I love mine except for sourcing components when everyone else is hopping on the heavy 25 bullet train.

6.8 Western has potential but it is hindered by brand propriety from Winchester and Browning. Other .277 offerings are hindered by slow factory twist rates.
277Fury too. I just dont think its going to last with out the military and I wouldnt be surpised if they abandoned it further down the road.

6 ARC is cool, especially in a bolt gun. You can load it on a progressive with ball powder and get single digit SDs. 2800 with a 105-108 and basically no recoil. Only hold back is the odd bolt size for most people. Either need a Valk or a Grendel.

6GT will probably win the gamer cartridge battle. It already has in my area. 1/2 the shooters at last years finale were running one. It's just easy. Easy to load for, easy to shoot, feeds great.

I dont know about the Nosler and Weatherby options but they seem overly niche and while hot rodded, not really improved for modern ballistics/bullets. Just my thoughts.

 

[Ben_H]

I think 6.5PRC will fade. Doesn’t seem to be that significant of an improvement on the 6.5CM for how much more the ammo costs. That’s around my area at least.

 

[FredH]

It's just like anything else, new toys. Buy a rifle, find loads it likes, put it in the gun safe. Rinse repeat. The WSM cartridges were a perfect example of this. As were the SAUM and RUM series of cartridges.

 

[manitou1]

I think the 6.8 Western will die pretty quickly.
6.5 prc may go as well IMO, but will have a few hanging on.

 

[ChrisAU]

I think ya’ll are crazy thinking the 6.5 PRC is going anywhere. I feel it’s the most popular new kid out there.

 

[ChrisAU]

Some interesting data here:

Top 15 Most Popular Rifle Cartridges (2024 Edition) – Backfire

backfire.tv

 

[RockAndSage]

Some interesting data here:

Top 15 Most Popular Rifle Cartridges (2024 Edition) – Backfire

backfire.tv

That post was pretty interesting. Still surprising how popular .450BM is - really curious how much of that is east of the Rockies.

 

[Unckebob]

I think the 6.8W is here to stay.