What are your thoughts on the Kung Flu?

[EastMT]

Some new estimates from the CDC on the regular lame ass flu that nobody’s worried about.
Estimated 34 million flu illnesses, 350,000 hospitalizations, 20,000 deaths with 136 being children.

What is the current count in the US on the coronavirus, like 14 old people.
I don’t know guys I think we might be worried about the wrong one.

https://www.kwch.com/content/news/Fl...568561001.html

Ok so let’s assume that this spreads as far and wide as the flu. That means 782,000 deaths, 6,120,000 hospitalized with serious complications. This is at the current stated rates.

I’m sure when the flu first emerged it didn’t hit the entire population in 8 weeks, gonna take a bit.

 

[Rmauch20]

Now imagine if Covid19 had been allowed to run rampant like the regular flu.

I'm not good at math but 20 x 20,000 is a big ol' number. And assuming hospitalizations at the same rate (which is a big assumption of course) you have 7,000,000 hospitalizations... in a country with 790-something thousand hospital beds. THAT is the real problem and why so much has been dumped into trying to prevent the spread.

In short, if you are a healthy young person and get it you are probably going to be alright but if the number of people even close to the number catch it who catch the flu (on top of the people who get the vanilla flu!) then shit is going to get really, really, really, real.

I think it’s funny that you think any of the quarantine procedures are helping us at all. It is running wild. has the coronavirus killed 20,000 worldwide yet?

 

[Rmauch20]

Ok so let’s assume that this spreads as far and wide as the flu. That means 782,000 deaths, 6,120,000 hospitalized with serious complications. This is at the current stated rates.

I’m sure when the flu first emerged it didn’t hit the entire population in 8 weeks, gonna take a bit.

I’m not sure on your math I will have to check some of those numbers out.

 

[jspradley]

I think it’s funny that you think any of the quarantine procedures are helping us at all. It is running wild. has the coronavirus killed 20,000 worldwide yet?

Again, it is due to the efforts of those quarantine and isolation programs that we get to pretend that they had no effects.

Do you think the result would be the same right now had none of those measures been taken?

 

[EastMT]

I’m not sure on your math I will have to check some of those numbers out.

2.3% current death rates, 18% serious complications and hospital (pneumonia). VS .01% death rate and .9% hospitalizations with flu.

So it’s apples to oranges until we find out how far it spreads. It’s new, it isn’t in every town in the world. We just have to wait and see.

If they are able to stop or slow it, it doesn’t infect as many people then yeah, not much to worry about. If it spreads to the same amount of people, it will be a mess just trying to care for the infected.

In the mean time, a few precautions are in order, especially if you are old, have lung/ heart problems. No panic, it’s just never a bad idea to avoid large public gatherings in flu season, as I always do any way.

 

[Rmauch20]

I would guess little to no changes. Maybe a few days at most.

 

[Ndbowhunter]

When the wife came home at 7:45 this morning it was shocking

No n95 masks. Hospital already overwhelmed in capacity to actually deal with the issue.

The no masks thing is nuts.

Assuming normal distributing a 2% death rate means there’s a 1/10 chance one of us in my 5 person family will die.

That’s real.

 

[GHOSTofWENDELL]

We keep leaving out the fact of unknown cases, so the percentages are more than likely very off. If the majority of healthy people only think they have the cold and never report it, we can't have an accurate picture of what's taking place.

 

[Diesel]

We will all be exposed to this stuff at some point.. Near impossible to avoid contact with people in general. A vaccine will eventually come on the scene to tamp it down. All we can do is limit it's spread by being aware of it methods of transmission till that day comes.

 

[jspradley]

I would guess little to no changes. Maybe a few days at most.

Well man I dont even know what to say to that. The link above might be an enlightening read. Particularly the part about the psychological difficulties in assessing risk and exponential infection rates.

 

[Rmauch20]

When the wife came home at 7:45 this morning it was shocking

No n95 masks. Hospital already overwhelmed in capacity to actually deal with the issue.

The no masks thing is nuts.

Assuming normal distributing a 2% death rate means there’s a 1/10 chance one of us in my 5 person family will die.

That’s real.

Yes if your family is 85 years old chronic smokers with underlying lung issues yes then you will probably be in some trouble.

 

[Rmauch20]

We keep leaving out the fact of unknown cases, so the percentages are more than likely very off. If the majority of healthy people only think they have the cold and never report it, we can't have an accurate picture of what's taking place.

A whole lot of this. I’m trying to say is people need to pump the brakes stop panicking this isn’t the end of days. This is not the Spanish flu. Even the number of deaths coming from China if you even remotely believe their new sources aren’t really all that bad For all the hype.

 

[EastMT]

A whole lot of this. I’m trying to say is people need to pump the brakes stop panicking this isn’t the end of days. This is not the Spanish flu. Even the number of deaths coming from China if you even remotely believe their new sources aren’t really all that bad For all the hype.

I haven’t seen any panic on here. Flu doesn’t even make me nervous, I haven’t had it since 1999, zero Flu shots in my life. But I work with pathogens all the time, so I wash constantly, just a way of life. Although with my Copenhagen habit I’m surprised I haven’t had it more........maybe Copenhagen kills viruses and pathogens .

I’m not nervous for me or my boy, but my wife is a different story. She has severe asthma and just congestion and a head cold are serious. So yeah, a little nervous for her. Needless to say I am burning through hand sanitizer as I will do what I can to not give it to her. Gas nozzles, sanitize. After leaving a building, sanitize. I don’t know what will happen if she gets it, in the mean time I’m paying attention and learning what I can, doing what I can.

 

[Rmauch20]

Well man I dont even know what to say to that. The link above might be an enlightening read. Particularly the part about the psychological difficulties in assessing risk and exponential infection rates.

If you believe what is out there about the virus people can be infected and show no symptoms for up to two weeks. All the while spreading the virus to others, if I had to take a guess by the time everyone started stockpiling toilet paper it was already here and spreading amongst healthy people who probably passed it off as the common cold and now that it is starting to affect high risk persons. We are being made aware of the cases.

All of this makes me definitely feel like a survivor. I only 40 years old and I have survived countless end of the world scenarios from Y2K, the mayan calendar ending, I think the ice caps were supposed to melt at least twice by now, Sars, mers, The swine flu the bird flu and ebola off the top my head.
All the while I’m just hoping the interest rate continues to fall so I can refinance my house again and get it down to a 10 or 15 year note with a sub three interest rate

 

[Fatcamp]

When the wife came home at 7:45 this morning it was shocking

No n95 masks. Hospital already overwhelmed in capacity to actually deal with the issue.

The no masks thing is nuts.

Assuming normal distributing a 2% death rate means there’s a 1/10 chance one of us in my 5 person family will die.

That’s real.

How many of those five people are over 65 or have pre-existing conditions that put them at risk? No children have died. Very few healthy adults have died.

 

[Fatcamp]

We will all be exposed to this stuff at some point.. Near impossible to avoid contact with people in general. A vaccine will eventually come on the scene to tamp it down. All we can do is limit it's spread by being aware of it methods of transmission till that day comes.

Correct. By limiting exposure and slowing the infection rate it gives hospitals a chance to care for cases without being overwhelmed.

 

[fmyth]

If you believe what is out there about the virus people can be infected and show no symptoms for up to two weeks. All the while spreading the virus to others, if I had to take a guess by the time everyone started stockpiling toilet paper it was already here and spreading amongst healthy people who probably passed it off as the common cold and now that it is starting to affect high risk persons. We are being made aware of the cases.

All of this makes me definitely feel like a survivor. I only 40 years old and I have survived countless end of the world scenarios from Y2K, the mayan calendar ending, I think the ice caps were supposed to melt at least twice by now, Sars, mers, The swine flu the bird flu and ebola off the top my head.
All the while I’m just hoping the interest rate continues to fall so I can refinance my house again and get it down to a 10 or 15 year note with a sub three interest rate

You can get 2.5% for a 15 year mortgage now.

 

[Azone]

You can get 2.5% for a 15 year mortgage now.

Finally the silver lining shows its face.

 

[EastMT]

I just closed on a property at 3%, I was amazed at that. Man it hits 2% I wonder if I can refi 60 days in haha.

 

[jspradley]

I certainly dont think it's the end of the world as it is and panic is absolutely the wrong response. Although I do believe there is strong evidence that we are dodging bullets every time one of these major epidemics hits due almost entirely to the response that the health orgs have put in place. Look at the Spanish Flu to see what would happen without those isolation responses and modern medicine.

Luckily for all of us there are people way smarter than us who are willing to put in the work to keep these things under control so we can all delude ourselves into thinking nothing bad can ever happen.

However it is inevitable that one day one of them will be nasty enough that no one will be able to stop it and shit's gonna get real interesting.