What are your thoughts on the Kung Flu?

[Fatcamp]

Gotcha. I was only talking about China and the US per your post. Of course, places without containment procedures yet will see a larger rise and impact.

Maybe. I find it strange we have yet to see it. This thing has been in the wild since November according to my wife(smart person), yet it hasn't blown up in a single third world country.

The lack of reporting on the connection between China and Northern Italy is odd.

 

[ODB]

Roughly 10% death rate in Italy.. that is what we are trying to avoid. It exploded there because they didnt take it seriously.

An interesting article on the Italy/China connection.

The Chinese Workers Who Assemble Designer Bags in Tuscany

Many companies are using inexpensive immigrant labor to manufacture handbags that bear the coveted “Made in Italy” label.

www.newyorker.com

 

[Fatcamp]

I’m not saying I think they should, I’m just saying after they get done raising the National Dept, states go in debt, they will be looking for some extra cash.

I’m headed to the beach, it’s quiet there, I can distance myself no problem. Fish are CV19 free, so I think I can still kiss them

Shed hunting is safe. Gonna start turkey hunting, too.

 

[ODB]

Maybe. I find it strange we have yet to see it. This thing has been in the wild since November according to my wife(smart person), yet it hasn't blown up in a single third world country.

The lack of reporting on the connection between China and Northern Italy is odd.

If you are the one who shared this before, sorry. I’ve been sharing it a lot - very interesting.

The Chinese Workers Who Assemble Designer Bags in Tuscany

Many companies are using inexpensive immigrant labor to manufacture handbags that bear the coveted “Made in Italy” label.

www.newyorker.com

 

[huntaholic123]

Well my test came back negative. Had all the symptoms of the CV-19 and the department of health recommended I be tested. All is good after a 72 hour wait for the results. My take on all of this is it was a pain doing the self quarantine but at the same time I have a wife who is pregnant and been sick and an 18 month old at home. My parents/in-laws are in the age bracket that has a high effect rate. I personally wouldn’t want to live with knowing I was responsible for one of them catching the virus and getting sick or God forbid pass away. My coworkers have family with autoimmune issues. I pray the spread doesn’t reach their doorstep. It is inconvenient and will have a big impact on many but precautions now can prevent the spread drastically and save lives. It is an overreaction to most until it directly impacts you. It’s going to get worse before it gets better. Batten down the hatches folks.

 

[CiK01]

Then I wonder where those projections of double digit infection rates came from? I mean, there are people working in the CDC and WHO who have collectively spent 1000's of years studying and researching outbreaks, viruses and how to contain them. They've studied more Pandemics then you or I are even aware of. I'm ok with giving them the benefit of the doubt that maybe they know more them me.


Then there is the Chinese. Have you read about their response? The speed and efficacy of it was crazy. Oh, and they dont generally give a sh!t about their citizens. Why were they scared? Why did they listen to their experts? I bet you they know their own population numbers and infection numbers better then anyone. Yet somehow they came to a conclusion that led them to imprison 60million people, over night.

The flu infection rate is about 10-15% of the population and the common flu has a countermeasure. I think double digits without countermeasures is more than doable. Exponential growth without countermeasures is a disaster. Assuming global population of 7billion, an infection rate of 15% and a death rate of 1% equates to 10.5million dead.

Of course we won't see that because of what China did, what South Korea did, what Italy is doing and what America is doing. Everyone needs to wash their hands and keep their distance until an engineered countermeasure (testing and vaccines) is available. It will make a huge difference. Do it for the grandpa and grandmas in your life. Or your elderly neighbors. The data shows they are the ones that are at significant risk in this.

 

[Dos Perros]

It sounds like eventually everyone is going to get it, or at least be exposed it. Maybe unless you're a hermit or something. It's not if, but when.

I wonder if there will be a way to test for the presence of anti-bodies indicating you've already had it? That'd be nice to know.

 

[5MilesBack]

It must really suck for folks with no hope and have to live a life of fear.

 

[Fatcamp]

If you are the one who shared this before, sorry. I’ve been sharing it a lot - very interesting.

The Chinese Workers Who Assemble Designer Bags in Tuscany

Many companies are using inexpensive immigrant labor to manufacture handbags that bear the coveted “Made in Italy” label.

www.newyorker.com

I didn't post it but have read it. Looked around and read the Wikipedia page about Chinese in Italy, but couldn't find much.

 

[Fatcamp]

The flu infection rate is about 10-15% of the population and the common flu has a countermeasure. I think double digits without countermeasures is more than doable. Exponential growth without countermeasures is a disaster. Assuming global population of 7billion, an infection rate of 15% and a death rate of 1% equates to 10.5million dead.

Of course we won't see that because of what China did, what South Korea did, what Italy is doing and what America is doing. Everyone needs to wash their hands and keep their distance until an engineered countermeasure (testing and vaccines) is available. It will make a huge difference. Do it for the grandpa and grandmas in your life. Or your elderly neighbors. The data shows they are the ones that are at significant risk in this.

See, that's what I don't get. You say it won't get so bad because these countries have taken steps to slow the spread but what does that have to do with anything. Once this gets to India or Africa, if it really is this dangerous, it will spread like wildfire with millions of severe cases and hundreds of thousands of deaths. Just one case in India should set off a massive snowball effect regardless if the grade schools in Connecticut are washing their hands.

 

[tdot]

It sounds like eventually everyone is going to get it, or at least be exposed it. Maybe unless you're a hermit or something. It's not if, but when.

I wonder if there will be a way to test for the presence of anti-bodies indicating you've already had it? That'd be nice to know.

They are still struggling to test with 100% accuracy on patients who are infected.

Another thought process that has been missed here is herd-immunity, once enough people have had it, it becomes harder for the virus to be passed. That has the potential to slow and even stop an outbreak.

But that herd immunity is based on the Virus not mutating. The Flu vaccine doesnt always work cuz the virus keeps changing and it is atleast partially dependent on the number of time it is transmitted.

So if CV19 mutates, and it reportedly has once already, then everyone could get sick a 2nd time.

The fewer times it is transmitted. the less opportunity it has to mutate.

 

[tdot]

I didn't post it but have read it. Looked around and read the Wikipedia page about Chinese in Italy, but couldn't find much.

There is also an incredible amount of Asian tourism in Italy and now Europe in general.

 

[tdot]

Well my test came back negative. Had all the symptoms of the CV-19 and the department of health recommended I be tested. All is good after a 72 hour wait for the results. My take on all of this is it was a pain doing the self quarantine but at the same time I have a wife who is pregnant and been sick and an 18 month old at home. My parents/in-laws are in the age bracket that has a high effect rate. I personally wouldn’t want to live with knowing I was responsible for one of them catching the virus and getting sick or God forbid pass away. My coworkers have family with autoimmune issues. I pray the spread doesn’t reach their doorstep. It is inconvenient and will have a big impact on many but precautions now can prevent the spread drastically and save lives. It is an overreaction to most until it directly impacts you. It’s going to get worse before it gets better. Batten down the hatches folks.

Did they say what it was?

 

[austinphps]

Thinking about it - I got a cold from my grand-kids during October - coughed for well over a month - wife got it and my dad too. Buddy from Indiana had it when he came to hunt with us. Sinus related than a cough that wouldn't go away...

Time frame was roughly 2nd weekend of Oct - end of November.

2nd season rifle here in colorado, my dad and his buddy came out. Buddy had a bad cough, was feeling like complete shit. Week later my dad got a cough that he couldn't shake for about 6 weeks...I was maybe run down for a week, but no real cough.

 

[Don Qui Puncher]

2nd season rifle here in colorado, my dad and his buddy came out. Buddy had a bad cough, was feeling like complete shit. Week later my dad got a cough that he couldn't shake for about 6 weeks...I was maybe run down for a week, but no real cough.

My kids 2&4 have been going back and forth with a cough/fever for 4 weeks I had it for a week then the stomach bug/fever both went away for a week and came back I’ve been ok for a little while now but my wife was had a bad cough for 2-3 weeks now. Whatever it is keeps coming back, doc said stay home drink fluids

 

[jmez]

My kids, 10,8, two six year olds go back and forth with coughs, fever and runny noes from late November until April. Every year.

 

[Obi-wanshinobi]

^^

My oldest son who is 6 years old was sick with the same symptoms for 2 weeks back in Jan. He was fine for 1 week after only to be back in bed again for another week. He's been fine since.
I truly believe this thing has been spreading for a while now.

 

[austinphps]

My kids, 10,8, two six year olds go back and forth with coughs, fever and runny noes from late November until April. Every year.

I usually get something with the changing of seasons. Runny nose, little cough, maybe a head cold

I was more pointing to the people stating that it was probably here months ago. Like Sept-Nov time frame. My dad's buddy sure sounded like complete crap during hunting season. Did he get tested? No - so we will never know.

 

[Rmauch20]

Some updated information & numbers

The current US infection rate (as of 3/15/2020 this AM) is 3,807 out of a 2020 estimated 331,000,000 US pop. That’s a proportion of 0.0012% or 11.5 per 1,000,000. The likelihood of dying from CODIV-19 in the US is currently at 69 deaths/331,000,000 or 0.00002%

The current, global CFR is 3.8% and 1.8% in the US.

WA State is the state that currently has the highest case fatality rate due principally to cases in King (n=420 with 37 deaths) and Snohomish (n=176) counties with the latter believed to be the initial the source of infection in the US (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191). King county alone has more than half of the deaths in the United States. If we remove WA State from the US case fatality rate, the US CFR is 0.89%.

 

[ODB]

They are still struggling to test with 100% accuracy on patients who are infected.

Another thought process that has been missed here is herd-immunity, once enough people have had it, it becomes harder for the virus to be passed. That has the potential to slow and even stop an outbreak.

But that herd immunity is based on the Virus not mutating. The Flu vaccine doesnt always work cuz the virus keeps changing and it is atleast partially dependent on the number of time it is transmitted.

So if CV19 mutates, and it reportedly has once already, then everyone could get sick a 2nd time.

The fewer times it is transmitted. the less opportunity it has to mutate.

Virusus often mutate to their detriment.