What are your thoughts on the Kung Flu?

[NDGuy]

I'm with him. People are getting tested here in Az and testing positive with no symptoms. Holy balls, maybe we should test everyone for the flu every year and see how many have it and die "because" of it. Over 28 million tests, 10% positive.

I refuse to believe someone can think it's a good idea to stop testing for a disease that is causing a global pandemic. Do you see the countries that are pretty much done with this and going back to normal already? I'll give you a hint, they didn't do it by covering a hood over their eyes and ears pretending like nothing is happening.

 

[jmez]

Should test as many as possible. They do need to work on improving the tests as well.

 

[jmez]

Death rates are interesting to follow. Should be a lagging indicator so you would expect the curve to mirror the infection rate curve but be a couple weeks behind.

Not what is happening worldwide or in the US. They are basically a mirror image at this point. Deaths in both US and world peaked prior to the infection rate peaking. Death rates have steadily decreased while infection rates have remained fairly constant or increased. A lot of factors at play with that but it may indicate that the virus is losing some steam as it progresses through populations.

 

[MattB]

Death rates are interesting to follow. Should be a lagging indicator so you would expect the curve to mirror the infection rate curve but be a couple weeks behind.

Not what is happening worldwide or in the US. They are basically a mirror image at this point. Deaths in both US and world peaked prior to the infection rate peaking. Death rates have steadily decreased while infection rates have remained fairly constant or increased. A lot of factors at play with that but it may indicate that the virus is losing some steam as it progresses through populations.

Lots af data suggests the average age of those getting the disease is skewing younger. More likely this is the result of the at risk groups being careful and the young being much less likely to die from the disease.

 

[jmez]

Definitely a factor. Don't think that accounts for the way the curves are progressing. Multifactorial for sure.

 

[NDGuy]

Should test as many as possible. They do need to work on improving the tests as well.

Until a vaccine, absolutely. Yes my doctor told me after getting my COVID test it has a 20% false negative rate. That's horrible! I was sick last week and while I don't think I had COVID that seems really high % of false negatives.

 

[durangobrad]

Arizonans say COVID tests not easily accessible, results are slow

As the numbers continue to spike in Arizona, more people are trying to get tested; some want a test for peace of mind and security they are safe to be around loved ones.

www.abc15.com

Testing and contact tracing is still very poor in the US. Other countries have shown us how to do it right, but we're too dumb or unwilling?



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[AK Troutbum]

Until a vaccine, absolutely. Yes my doctor told me after getting my COVID test it has a 20% false negative rate. That's horrible! I was sick last week and while I don't think I had COVID that seems really high % of false negatives.

This is what I've read as well (1 out of 5 false negatives), however, these studies are with people that are asymptomatic, and are getting screened prior to having other procedures done. So, basically if you are so early in the disease process, like just a few days after contracting it, there's a 1 in 5 chance you will falsely test negative.

 

[jmez]

I'd be pretty cautious about getting a vaccine any time soon. I am definitely not anti vaccine. They are rushing all of theses tests to market and most of them are very inaccurate. Last thing I'm doing is getting a vaccine that has been rushed to market as well.

There is a reason the approval process for this stuff takes years under normal circumstances.

I'm sure the ads are already made and ready to release: "Were you given conditionally licensed Covid-19 vaccine and now experiencing any of the following symptoms...................... You may be entitled to compensation. Please call today."

 

[jmez]

Are states reporting both antigen and antibody test results, does anyone know?

So much information left out of reporting everywhere hard to make sense of any of it.

You can go to South Dakota website and get a breakdown of hospital beds in use/available, ICU beds, and ventilators. It then breaks that down into Covid and non Covid patients. In South Dakota the % in use for Covid patients is much, much lower than for non covid patients. Other states just show total numbers.

 

[NDGuy]

This is what I've read as well (1 out of 5 false negatives), however, these studies are with people that are asymptomatic, and are getting screened prior to having other procedures done. So, basically if you are so early in the disease process, like just a few days after contracting it, there's a 1 in 5 chance you will falsely test negative.

Ahh good point, didn't think about that. I was definitely symptomatic (4-5 days along) first had a stuffy nose. Then full blown congestion, bad cough, headache, itchy throat.

No fever or any other symptoms though. Think it was just a headcold I caught from the kiddo.

 

[NDGuy]

I'd be pretty cautious about getting a vaccine any time soon.

Definitely agree with that, I am young and healthy I will take the risk of catching it vs developing something more horrific with a rushed vaccine. I am not anti vax at all but don't want to be the guinea pig for the fastest vaccine ever developed.

As for antibody I can't find great sources either but pretty sure antibody-positive numbers are pretty low.

 

[jmez]

I believe the antibody tests are much more inaccurate than the antigen tests.

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[Mike7]

The antibody tests now are very sensitive and specific, but it appears that many people, particularly those who never had symptoms with the illness, have no detectable antibodies as soon as 8 wks after exposure.

So total infection rates may have been significantly higher in some areas than once thought, because we are using antibodies to estimate this. But that also, doesn't necessarily mean that you have no immunity, if you have no antibodies.

If you by now take every Trump joke seriously or any media report without some skepticism, then I can't help you...
County and state health departments determine testing protocols and contract tracing. Many areas are doing it many different ways with many potential flaws.

I get patients from two states daily. One state locked down, but who has closed down centrally offered testing to everyone interestingly vs. one state opened up but who is still doing centralized testing. So many population, infection rate, and medical resource factors are involved. Unless you are in those health department meetings, it is hard to know about all of these factors, and how much state politics may or may not be playing a roll.

Hospital admissions data or death rate data certainly lags some, but is probably a better guide than reported new positive tests, when states are now doing more antibody tests, which means positive tests can indicate an infection that occurred months earlier and not this week.

Also, who really cares if 50% of young people all get the infection tomorrow (it appears the average positive test age has decreased), since these people aren't filling hospitals.

 

[Mike7]

If the vaccine data on the whole looks good, then I will likely get it...as long as it is not made in China of course, because of the horrible history of contamination and poor quality control of everything from dog food to medications.

Even though I think a vaccine would be a good thing, I am not waiting around paralyzed for it. Never has a disease been so politicized and had so much misinformation put out about it from mostly non-medical sources.

 

[NDGuy]

If you by now take every Trump joke seriously or any media report without some skepticism, then I can't help you...

Ah yes, very presidential to make jokes about not testing for a disease that has killed 120k Americans and counting.

Glad to know he's using a global pandemic to practice his new stand up act.

Cmon man, people are entitled to their opinion but this blind defending Donald Trump is sickening. Call bullshit and foul when you see it. Whenever he says something idiotic like injecting bleach to kill the virus you can't sit there every time and say "HE WAS KIDDING GUYS CALM DOWN."

Skip to 1:30 and watch it yourself.

 

[Mike7]

You make my exact point with your response. How about everyone just exhibit some intellectual honesty. I don't carry the water for any politician, but dishonesty also gets you nowhere with me.

First, you posted a headline of what Trump said as if it was not sarcasm about more testing leading to increased numbers. Then you attack me for pointing this out, but also then change your narrative to Trump is just insensitive by joking about a portion of a topic which you feel should be off limits. Why didn't you just say that in the first place?

Then, for some reason, you after not learning from the first post, perpetuate the bleach injection distortion.

Here, I will correct it for you. Trump in clearly trying to give people hope, referred to the govt's support for any possible treatment studies, and postulated that maybe through study some of these topical light or chemical/"disinfectant" therapies might even work inside of the body, meaning inside of the lungs. My guess is that he, as a nonmedical person, was briefed on the potential for intrapulmonary therapies among many things, based upon his comment to the medical presenter.

 

[KurtR]

Fourth of july celebration is getting set up the carny is in town and will probably be one of the biggest sitting bull stampede rodeos ever as it is the 70 th annual . Tent dance three nights in a row . Everything is open here we did have 2 new cases last week both are recovered . This has been the busiest year of fishing i have seen in alot of years. Hotels have been packed along with boat ramps on lake oahe. Revenue is up for both the months of april and may. I suspect june and july will be huge. Pheasant season will be a good one this year also with lots of birds and more rona bonus checks to spend

 

[NDGuy]

First, you posted a headline of what Trump said as if it was not sarcasm about more testing leading to increased numbers. Then you attack me for pointing this out, but also then change your narrative to Trump is just insensitive by joking about a portion of a topic which you feel should be off limits. Why didn't you just say that in the first place?

I don't think he was joking I think he was serious, I think our federal government is trying to downplay the outbreak because there are hot spots popping up all over.

The point I made if he WAS joking that doesn't excuse what he said. If he was joking, he's a garbage person for joking about a pandemic that's cost the lives of 120k people and will likely kill a lot more before it's all said and done.

 

[Mike7]

Roger, you hate bombastic political rhetoric that makes the point that increased testing necessarily means increased numbers. I guess I hate more dishonest media, and politicians who make dumb or dishonest policy choices/actions contrary to their promises.

Source: C-SPAN)

“To my knowledge, none of us have ever been told to slow down on testing. That just is a fact,” Fauci said. “So, it’s the opposite. We’re going to be doing more testing, not less.”