What are your thoughts on the Kung Flu?

[durangobrad]

It seems there is an assumption that opinions are biased when they’re based on incomplete data. In reality, incomplete data is all we have.

Robby, that’s awesome of Vortex to support our medical professionals. More companies should. I might even go so far as to say there might be a moral obligation for companies who are doing well to support those who support our society - like medical professionals.

It's not incomplete data, that's totally understandable at this point.

It's biased because their sample isn't even close to random, but they extrapolate it across the entire population to show the low mortality rate.

If they had done the same study with 5000 random people being tested, then I would say it's good science.

Sent from my F1 using Tapatalk

 

[Dustin the wind]

It's not incomplete data, that's totally understandable at this point.

It's biased because their sample isn't even close to random, but they extrapolate it across the entire population to show the low mortality rate.

If they had done the same study with 5000 random people being tested, then I would say it's good science.

Sent from my F1 using Tapatalk

And how would you explain an almost identical infection rate in Sweden for instance, at 11%. They took their samples from blood donors. Do you have a tweet for that?

 

[SgtTanner]

It's not incomplete data, that's totally understandable at this point.

It's biased because their sample isn't even close to random, but they extrapolate it across the entire population to show the low mortality rate.

If they had done the same study with 5000 random people being tested, then I would say it's good science.

Sent from my F1 using Tapatalk

Is it reasonable for a pair of doctors to draw conclusions based on the data they are seeing as they treat patients in their clinic? I think I remember them acknowledging that the experience outside their clinic (in NYC, for example), might be different. I don’t think they tried to apply conclusions drawn from experiences in their own clinic to situations like NYC. That would seem disingenuous. Forming opinions and voicing such opinions from firsthand experience in seeing patients seems to me like a good thing, especially when they provided the disclaimer that it might be different in other places.

I agree that the patients that walk into an urgent care clinic are not a random sampling. But we did see a study last week out of NY where they DID obtain a random sampling from patrons of grocery stores across the state. The extrapolated math supports a very low mortality rate - less than one percent - and that includes the statistical outlier of NYC.

Source: https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/loc...plan-to-fight-nursing-home-outbreaks/2386556/

that’s from a media outlet, so not the best, but it’s what we have.

 

[durangobrad]

Is it reasonable for a pair of doctors to draw conclusions based on the data they are seeing as they treat patients in their clinic? I think I remember them acknowledging that the experience outside their clinic (in NYC, for example), might be different. I don’t think they tried to apply conclusions drawn from experiences in their own clinic to situations like NYC. That would seem disingenuous. Forming opinions and voicing such opinions from firsthand experience in seeing patients seems to me like a good thing, especially when they provided the disclaimer that it might be different in other places.

I agree that the patients that walk into an urgent care clinic are not a random sampling. But we did see a study last week out of NY where they DID obtain a random sampling from patrons of grocery stores across the state. The extrapolated math supports a very low mortality rate - less than one percent - and that includes the statistical outlier of NYC.

Source: https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/loc...plan-to-fight-nursing-home-outbreaks/2386556/

that’s from a media outlet, so not the best, but it’s what we have.

Yes, the mortality rate is likely low, the difficulty is that extremely high infection rate. So even if there's a low mortality rate, it still kills a lot of people.

Covid has now killed more in the us than an above average flu season in about two months, even with extreme measures in place.

A normal flu season in 6-8 months long.

Sent from my F1 using Tapatalk

 

[SgtTanner]

Yes, the mortality rate is likely low, the difficulty is that extremely high infection rate. So even if there's a low mortality rate, it still kills a lot of people.

Covid has now killed more in the us than an above average flu season in about two months, even with extreme measures in place.

A normal flu season in 6-8 months long.

Sent from my F1 using Tapatalk

I don’t disagree with any of that. Just that doctors forming an opinion based the patients they see constitutes. I found them credible and appreciate their opinions. They’re certainly more educated opinions than my own. Further, my life and my community are likely closer to what they’re seeing than what is happening in New York or New Orleans.

 

[spike camp]

I see you didn't even bother to review the entire video. not surprised


The great science experts in the media, in the universities, in the govt predicted millions of deaths in the US. Whats the death toll now? What percentage of deaths are attributed to the virus due to other causes?

If nothing was done, models showed the possibility of 2.2 million people dead from Covid-19.

 

[SgtTanner]

If nothing was done, models showed the possibility of 2.2 million people dead from Covid-19.

Is that scientifically proven? If you watched the video from a few posts back, they compare Finland and Sweden. One locked down hard and other didn’t, and they didn’t have hugely different outcomes. This isn’t some long-term, double blind fancy scientific research, but it’s the information we have at this point. We won’t have good science for a while yet.

 

[RyanT26]

If nothing was done, models showed the possibility of 2.2 million people dead from Covid-19.

I believe that gentleman altered his study when he was called out on his BS numbers.

There are only 211,000 deaths worldwide. 2.2 million in the U.S would be totally unrealistic.

 

[spike camp]

I believe that gentleman altered his study when he was called out on his BS numbers.

There are only 211,000 deaths worldwide. 2.2 million in the U.S would be totally unrealistic.

Altered to what?

Regardless, the gentleman in which I quoted posted narrow minded misinformation.

60 thousand Americans dead in seven weeks...with the country shut down.

20x that number or more, if nothing was done, certainly doesn’t seem unrealistic.
But, there are plenty of people that would be ok with that amount of dead Americans due to C-19...whatever the number.

 

[RyanT26]

Altered to what?

Regardless, the gentleman in which I quoted posted narrow minded misinformation.

60 thousand Americans dead in six weeks...with the country shut down.

20x that number or more, if nothing was done, certainly doesn’t seem unrealistic.
But, there are plenty of people that would be ok with that amount of dead Americans due to C-19...whatever the number.

I don’t recall and I don’t really care to take the time to look it up. We are still not even in the ball park using world numbers.
If that is the case it does you no good to post bogus info as a response.
What the number could’ve been is just pure speculation.
What is real, we crashed the economy, it appears it is no where near as deadly as we were led to believe, the WHO is questionable putting it nicely, many will view the response as a boy who cried wolf and ignore future warnings.
I guess I would fall into the group of not feeling it was worth it. Subject to change

 

[spike camp]

I don’t recall and I don’t really care to take the time to look it up. We are still not even in the ball park using world numbers.
If that is the case it does you no good to post bogus info as a response.
What the number could’ve been is just pure speculation.
What is real, we crashed the economy, it appears it is no where near as deadly as we were led to believe, the WHO is questionable putting it nicely, many will view the response as a boy who cried wolf and ignore future warnings.
I guess I would fall into the group of not feeling it was worth it. Subject to change

Obviously, you’re entitled to your opinion.
We’ll agree to disagree.

 

[Jacack]

If nothing was done, models showed the possibility of 2.2 million people dead from Covid-19.

That 2.2 number was with social distance measures in place i believe. And certainly the 250k estimate was.

And the number of dead right now is not even close to being accurate.

. My brother in-law lost his father two weeks ago. Covid was put as the cause of death, he was stage 4 lung cancer in hospice on morphine pump at the time of his death. pretty sure covid wasn't responsible for his death.

We have had 15 deaths in my county here in fl. Youngest death was 79 oldest was 101 average age was 88 i believe.

No doubt it kills younger healthy people too but the majority are not healthy to start with.
Sure there will be some perfectly healthy younger people die but not enough to shut down the way we have.

 

[spike camp]

That 2.2 number was with social distance measures in place i believe. And certainly the 250k estimate was.

And the number of dead right now is not even close to being accurate.

. My brother in-law lost his father two weeks ago. Covid was put as the cause of death, he was stage 4 lung cancer in hospice on morphine pump at the time of his death. pretty sure covid wasn't responsible for his death.

We have had 15 deaths in my county here in fl. Youngest death was 79 oldest was 101 average age was 88 i believe.

No doubt it kills younger healthy people too but the majority are not healthy to start with.
Sure there will be some perfectly healthy younger people die but not enough to shut down the way we have.

I believe the 2.2 was doing nothing at all...correct me if I’m wrong.

I understand that many died that were on deaths door anyway, due to further complications of catching the virus.

What number would you be satisfied with?

Or, are you in the same camp of....we shoulda done nothing at all?

 

[eamyrick]

Our police department of 800 or so patrol (1900 or total) has interacted with public on a regular basis this entire time. In an out of 7-11 bathrooms, take out at chipotle, etc. We have had 2 cops test positive. Guys are using the same substations and cars every day. Mask wearing started about 2 weeks ago. Doesn’t seem highly contagious from my perspective.

I still think it’s serious when an unknown virus sweeps across the world but about 2 weeks ago it was time to open back up. The Texas Governor is opening up most of everything to 25% capacity Friday and staggering everything else over the next two weeks.

 

[Jacack]

I believe the 2.2 was doing nothing at all...correct me if I’m wrong.

I understand that many died that were on deaths door anyway, due to further complications of catching the virus.

What number would you be satisfied with?

Or, are you in the same camp of....we shoulda done nothing at all?

I would be satisfied with a more accurate number but thats not going to happen. It pretty obvious that the numbers are greatly inflated as far as deaths are concerned.

I am of the opinion that we probably should of shut down or restricted international travel sooner but with the info at that time the actions where about best they could be.

But I think it became pretty clear 2-3 weeks ago it was nowhere near as deadly as expected and that it probably had been here alot longer that thought causing the estimates to be way off and we should of started opening certain areas up werks ago.

I posted awhile back that I believed my mother has it february 10 after her being admitted to the hospital for breathing difficulties and a cough. She just had the antibodies test and yes she was positive.

You know how many people came in and out of her shared room those 7 days in the hospital including myself, sister and my wife and son. Not one of us ever experienced anything other than my 7yr old who had a minor cough for a few days.

I believe there is still alot we don't know about this virus but will overtime and most new data will point to it being much less deadly than expected

 

[JustJustin]

Altered to what?

Regardless, the gentleman in which I quoted posted narrow minded misinformation.

60 thousand Americans dead in seven weeks...with the country shut down.

20x that number or more, if nothing was done, certainly doesn’t seem unrealistic.
But, there are plenty of people that would be ok with that amount of dead Americans due to C-19...whatever the number.

If we had done nothing, it would still only be the imuno-compromised, preexisting respiratory diseased, and unhealthy elderly people that die. We probably would have reached the 2.2 million in CASES within the last week. We're at 1 M today. A huge percentage of people that are positive don't have any symptoms.
The 2.2M deaths was just a slightly educated guess. IF the death rate among people with SYMPTOMS at the time was close to the 10% some people were proclaiming, AND if it killed healthy people at the same rate as it killed people with major preexisting conditions, AND everybody that got it experienced severe symptoms, we would need to be at 22 million cases in the US to make 2.2 million deaths.
Just Justin's opinion and theory.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

 

[ODB]

I would be satisfied with a more accurate number but thats not going to happen. It pretty obvious that the numbers are greatly inflated as far as deaths are concerned.

I am of the opinion that we probably should of shut down or restricted international travel sooner but with the info at that time the actions where about best they could be.

But I think it became pretty clear 2-3 weeks ago it was nowhere near as deadly as expected and that it probably had been here alot longer that thought causing the estimates to be way off and we should of started opening certain areas up werks ago.

I posted awhile back that I believed my mother has it february 10 after her being admitted to the hospital for breathing difficulties and a cough. She just had the antibodies test and yes she was positive.

You know how many people came in and out of her shared room those 7 days in the hospital including myself, sister and my wife and son. Not one of us ever experienced anything other than my 7yr old who had a minor cough for a few days.

I believe there is still alot we don't know about this virus but will overtime and most new data will point to it being much less deadly than expected

Man that’s really interesting about your mom. What area of the country is she/you in? Have there been many cases there overall? Any idea how she may ha love been exposed?

the earliest death is now thought to beFeb 6 in California. That means they were infected (probably like your mom) in mid-late January.

 

[WV Mountaineer]

Yes, the mortality rate is likely low, the difficulty is that extremely high infection rate. So even if there's a low mortality rate, it still kills a lot of people.

Covid has now killed more in the us than an above average flu season in about two months, even with extreme measures in place.

A normal flu season in 6-8 months long.

Sent from my F1 using Tapatalk

OK. What do you propose? All I've heard from you is stuff like this. So, whats the next step? Stay home until we all starve? Isolate the susceptible and Go back to everyday life and let it runs it's course? What?

You've been very critical f everyone who didn't jump on the bash Trump train. So, what do you propose as the right things to do?

 

[Dustin the wind]

Unfortunately ‘Trump is an idiot’ doesn’t make for a very good plan. Only thing left after that is to naysay everything.

 

[Mosster47]

I don’t recall and I don’t really care to take the time to look it up. We are still not even in the ball park using world numbers.
If that is the case it does you no good to post bogus info as a response.
What the number could’ve been is just pure speculation.
What is real, we crashed the economy, it appears it is no where near as deadly as we were led to believe, the WHO is questionable putting it nicely, many will view the response as a boy who cried wolf and ignore future warnings.
I guess I would fall into the group of not feeling it was worth it. Subject to change

Where did the economy crash?

The market is still crushing it. Everyone that has been temporarily laid off is getting paid. A huge number are doing much better than they were before. The wealthy are still disproportionately wealthy compared to the general populous.

I hear people saying this, but it's just not accurate. At some point, maybe, but it absolutely hasn't crashed. Temporarily shut down, yes, but that's where it ends.