What are your thoughts on the Kung Flu?

[MattB]

Local health officials have confirmed the first Santa Clara county COVID death was Feb. 6, weeks before it was known to be in the area. There were 2 other deaths between then and when the virus was acknowledged to be active locally that have since been reclassified based on positive tests.

There may be some truth to the notion that people caught it prior to health officials recognizing it was active in the US.

 

[trazerr]

Facts about Covid19 - All Sourced.

Probably the best info I've found. Make your own conclusions. Just to be 100% transparent, this site is on the 'it's not as bad' side of the spectrum.

So Sweden chose herd immunity over lockdown. More deaths at first, but possibly way better off in the long run.



Whether it was the right choice or not it is still interesting.

 

[jmez]

Local health officials have confirmed the first Santa Clara county COVID death was Feb. 6, weeks before it was known to be in the area. There were 2 other deaths between then and when the virus was acknowledged to be active locally that have since been reclassified based on positive tests.

There may be some truth to the notion that people caught it prior to health officials recognizing it was active in the US.

If true then it doesn't lend a lot of credence to the lockdown/flatten the curve repsonse. Half the county should have been dead were it circulating for weeks prior to anyone knowing.

 

[Foldem]

Local health officials have confirmed the first Santa Clara county COVID death was Feb. 6, weeks before it was known to be in the area. There were 2 other deaths between then and when the virus was acknowledged to be active locally that have since been reclassified based on positive tests.

There may be some truth to the notion that people caught it prior to health officials recognizing it was active in the US.

 

[MattB]

If true then it doesn't lend a lot of credence to the lockdown/flatten the curve repsonse. Half the county should have been dead were it circulating for weeks prior to anyone knowing.

Potentially, depends on the fact pattern in each case.

So Sweden chose herd immunity over lockdown. More deaths at first, but possibly way better off in the long run.

View attachment 174653

Whether it was the right choice or not it is still interesting.

The Swedish death chart on Worldometers has a very different profile, reflecting a generally increasing trajectory with yesterday being the highest death count to date (185). Someone's data is wrong.

Sweden COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Sweden Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

 

[jmez]

There won't be any "herd immunity" anywhere for a long time. These preliminary tests are showing exposure to 2%-4% infection rates. The ones in Europe were higher, none of them have even been 15%. In order to get herd immunity you need around 60% infected. For Sweden that is going to be over 6 million people.

 

[jmez]

Sweden also has a fairly large % of aged people in the country. A lot of confounding factors with all of the different outbreaks. Also if you look at the deaths based on population Sweden still isn't that high. Lower by a factor or 2 than Spain, Italy, and France. They are at 192/ million population and we are at 143.

They are nowhere near the doom that was predicted for them a few weeks ago when they refused to shut the country down.

 

[Evol]

Potentially, depends on the fact pattern in each case.


The Swedish death chart on Worldometers has a very different profile, reflecting a generally increasing trajectory with yesterday being the highest death count to date (185). Someone's data is wrong.

Sweden COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Sweden Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

Swedens death reporting over the weekend is bad, you see the same spike every week.

 

[MattB]

Sweden also has a fairly large % of aged people in the country. A lot of confounding factors with all of the different outbreaks. Also if you look at the deaths based on population Sweden still isn't that high. Lower by a factor or 2 than Spain, Italy, and France. They are at 192/ million population and we are at 143.

They are nowhere near the doom that was predicted for them a few weeks ago when they refused to shut the country down.

It ain't over yet.

 

[jmez]

Yes it will depend on the fact pattern but the two that died weren't shut ins or they wouldn't have contracted the virus. They got if from somewhere, that means that there was already community spread occurring with the virus.
We've been fed the key to containment is to shut down as soon as there is evidence of community spread.

Now you have potentially weeks of community spread occurring with a virus that the world knows about in a densely populated area and there isn't enough evidence around for any concern to be raised? Something isn't adding up with that situation.

 

[jmez]

I didn't say it was but you get back to me when Sweden even starts approaching 400. Not going to happen. They are on the backside of the curve. Their new daily infections graph is following the bell curve like the rest have. They passed the peak.

 

[MattB]

Swedens death reporting over the weekend is bad, you see the same spike every week.

As is ours, but you can't ignore the trends because of bad weekend reporting. When the weekly spikes continue to increase week over week and news articles are broadly reporting an increase in deaths, I am going to be more than a little suspicious of a chart that shows deaths peaked 2 weeks ago - even though it was reported on a website that includes "Facts" in the name.

 

[*zap*]

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Wednesday he favors allowing states struggling with high public employee pension costs amid the burdens of the pandemic response to declare bankruptcy rather than giving them a federal bailout.

 

[Evol]

As is ours, but you can't ignore the trends because of bad weekend reporting. When the weekly spikes continue to increase week over week and news articles are broadly reporting an increase in deaths, I am going to be more than a little suspicious of a chart that shows deaths peaked 2 weeks ago - even though it was reported on a website that includes "Facts" in the name.

Yeah, I'm not sure what's up with that. Here's the raw data I pulled off the Sweden Public Health Ministry. It's not hard to imagine they could be skewing their numbers too.

Experience

experience.arcgis.com

 

[*zap*]

So, the USA and Europe have been very effected by this as compared to the rest of the world........well more than 50% of deaths are between 4 countries. USA, Spain, Italy and France. Seems like this is not too bad in some very overcrowded and poorer countries where so many millions live very, very close to one another...and those countries have cases....

I wonder why that is?

 

[trazerr]

Potentially, depends on the fact pattern in each case.


The Swedish death chart on Worldometers has a very different profile, reflecting a generally increasing trajectory with yesterday being the highest death count to date (185). Someone's data is wrong.

Sweden COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Sweden Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

Yeah, and the website below says peak daily deaths is in 27 days. Hmm...

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

 

[trazerr]

There won't be any "herd immunity" anywhere for a long time. These preliminary tests are showing exposure to 2%-4% infection rates. The ones in Europe were higher, none of them have even been 15%. In order to get herd immunity you need around 60% infected. For Sweden that is going to be over 6 million people.

Apparently they think Stockholm will hit herd immunity in a few weeks.

Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach 'herd immunity' in weeks

Sweden went against the grain by keeping public life as unrestricted as possible when the coronavirus hit. Now, it says its strategy appears to be working.

www.cnbc.com

“In major parts of Sweden, around Stockholm, we have reached a plateau (in new cases) and we’re already seeing the effect of herd immunity and in a few weeks’ time we’ll see even more of the effects of that. And in the rest of the country, the situation is stable,” Dr. Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist at Sweden’s Public Health Agency, told CNBC on Tuesday.

No clue if that should be trusted or not. Stockholm has a population of almost 1 million.

 

[KurtR]

It’s time for personal responsibility to kick in. We all know what to do to take precautions. If some one wants to stay in stay in if some one wants to work should be able to work.

 

[CorbLand]

It’s time for personal responsibility to kick in. We all know what to do to take precautions. If some one wants to stay in stay in if some one wants to work should be able to work.

Sounds like most states are planning on opening back up around the first of May.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Fatcamp]

So, the USA and Europe have been very effected by this as compared to the rest of the world........well more than 50% of deaths are between 4 countries. USA, Spain, Italy and France. Seems like this is not too bad in some very overcrowded and poorer countries where so many millions live very, very close to one another...and those countries have cases....

I wonder why that is?

My opinion? Glad you asked.

For all the badmouthing of health care in America we have been able to keep millions upon millions of people who treat themselves like shit and have stacked co-morbidities alive for far longer than they would ever survive anywhere else. This virus is a final straw sort of event.

I don't think that people outside of healthcare have any idea how many people are brought back from death's door on a regular basis by our ED's, ICU's, and step-down units. Over and over and over and over. I never would have believed it until I became a part of it. It's unreal.