Unraveling The Mystery Of Point Creep, By Dr. Michael Street

[Justin Crossley]

Perfect timing on this article about point creep since we are right in the middle of application season. Applying for tags in multiple states can be confusing and overwhelming. Different point systems make it more so. In this article, Dr. Michael Street (@street) helps to explain how point creep affects which tags he chooses to focus on.

Unraveling The Mystery Of Point Creep



Dr. Michael Street is a Minnesota-born engineer and scientist with a background in physics, mathematics, and computer science. He earned his Ph.D. in Physics with a focus on magnetoelectric materials from the University of Nebraska, Lincoln in 2018. Mike is now an Electrical Engineer with a computer technology company and resides in the beautiful state of Colorado with his wife.

A lifelong hunter, Mike's outdoor interests began with small game hunting and were magnified with a childhood trip to Wyoming with his father and brother. He enjoys shed hunting, scouting, hiking, fishing, camping, and deer hunting with his friends and faily.

 

[realunlucky]

I consider myself well versed in point creep and still learned a few new things from the article. Thanks definitely worth the read.

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[slick]

I was glad to see a statistical approach and a well written methodology section.

I’ve had some upper level management from an unknown state’s agency (who holds a lot of sway) look me dead in the eyes and say “point creep isn’t real”.

I might email this to him


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[westonadkins]

Great article! Figure two is beautiful, telling graph.


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[dtrkyman]

Things really get jacked up when all the guys with 15 or more points realize they will never catch up and start grabbing tags that take under 10 so they can hunt!

 

[street]

I was glad to see a statistical approach and a well written methodology section.

I’ve had some upper level management from an unknown state’s agency (who holds a lot of sway) look me dead in the eyes and say “point creep isn’t real”.

I might email this to him


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Thanks for the comments slick. Let me know if you need any more data (ammo) to prove your point to him

 

[street]

Thanks for the comments guys. Happy to answer any questions if there are any.

 

[kscowboy01]

I would really be nice to now how many of those with 10+ points are 60+ years in age. My father has a lot of points and will be 71 this year. He doesn't move like he used to. It sucks.

He is one below max in CO for sheep (applied for Desert one year) and I have to talk him into applying now. I'd go with him and have visited with a guide that would accommodate him the best he could, should he draw. I think the sheep, goat, and moose tags are all going to be grabbed by the 3+0 guys this year.

 

[CLB38]

Thanks for the comments guys. Happy to answer any questions if there are any.

Do you mind sharing how this analysis influences your personal approach to accumulating points?

I’m an adult onset (aka total noob!) hunter in the East trying to establish the cost/benefit of points to formulate a long range (5+ yrs) plan for future western backcountry hunts with my son (14 now).

thanks!

 

[street]

Do you mind sharing how this analysis influences your personal approach to accumulating points?

I’m an adult onset (aka total noob!) hunter in the East trying to establish the cost/benefit of points to formulate a long range (5+ yrs) plan for future western backcountry hunts with my son (14 now).

thanks!

Here are a couple good articles from Robby you might want to check out.
Points Paralysis: The Treatment - Rokslide
Application Strategy: My Personal Strategy Part I - Rokslide
Application Strategy: My Personal Strategy Part II - Rokslide

There are many others on RS if you search for them. But the Points Paralysis one is my favorite since he goes over questions you really need to ask yourself before getting too deep in the weeds.

That doesn't really answer your question but I think you're the only one that really can answer it. But from the analysis, I find it hard to justify building a lot of points as a nonresident in true preference point states like CO.

 

[CLB38]

Here are a couple good articles from Robby you might want to check out.
Points Paralysis: The Treatment - Rokslide
Application Strategy: My Personal Strategy Part I - Rokslide
Application Strategy: My Personal Strategy Part II - Rokslide

There are many others on RS if you search for them. But the Points Paralysis one is my favorite since he goes over questions you really need to ask yourself before getting too deep in the weeds.

That doesn't really answer your question but I think you're the only one that really can answer it. But from the analysis, I find it hard to justify building a lot of points as a nonresident in true preference point states like CO.

Thanks!
https://www.rokslide.com/application-strategy-my-personal-strategy-part-ii/

 

[wapitibob]

You need to have both the applicants per point level as well as the point only guys per point level to see the whole picture. Some states publish that info but in a state like WY, that data requires public info requests for the draw and points databases. There were over 950 people with 14 Elk points in WY last year that never applied for a hunt vs slightly over 400 who did. Those 950+ aren't in the odds reports.

 

[street]

You need to have both the applicants per point level as well as the point only guys per point level to see the whole picture. Some states publish that info but in a state like WY, that data requires public info requests for the draw and points databases. There were over 950 people with 14 Elk points in WY last year that never applied for a hunt vs slightly over 400 who did. Those 950+ aren't in the odds reports.

Edit: Sorry wapitibob, I misread your comment the first time. This data is with the preference point only applicants lumped into everyone else applying for specific tags. But you're right, it is not broken out between preference point only applicants and applicants applying for actual hunt codes. Out of curiosity, I subtracted out the preference point only applicants, and the trends are visually indistinguishable from the data in Figure 2.

 

[CamoPirate]

I'm curious about the math behind everything, and how to use it to graph data for our own units, instead of the X,Y,Z units. Any chance you have a way to summarize it so I can do some research and build my own?

 

[street]

I'm curious about the math behind everything, and how to use it to graph data for our own units, instead of the X,Y,Z units. Any chance you have a way to summarize it so I can do some research and build my own?

Hey Pirate, here is a procedure that should work for most people(windows Excel or google sheets).


Made up data in columns A and B. Right click on a data point in the scatter plot and then Add Trendline.


Depending on software and version you'll have these types of options for trendlines: linear, log, etc. Display the Equation will have it show up on the plot( y = mx + b ). So in this scenario, the slope, gives a point creep(with a linear regression) comes in at ~0.3 Preference Points per Year.

This procedure is similar in google sheets which is a free software in case you don't have excel. This type of thing can be done in tons of different types of software, it's personal preference.

I hope this helps you out. I can help you via PM if you have specific questions trying to get it to work. But I figure posting this can help others as well.

 

[CamoPirate]

I hope this helps you out. I can help you via PM if you have specific questions trying to get it to work. But I figure posting this can help others as well.

You're a gentleman and a scholar, I highly appreciate that. I think I was ending up getting there, but it would've taken me a bit longer than asking for the help.

I've been trying to figure out what states are even worth buying points in, as I'm just starting from ground zero and this is just the tool to help figure out the math behind the money.

 

[Bghntr416]

Very interesting. I quit applying years ago. To those still applying, you're welcome. I realized that for me it would be better to find other opportunities and come to terms with the fact that some species just are not in the cards for me. Plenty of other adventures to seek.

 

[Josh Kuntz]

As a guy who loves spreadsheets and graphs, I just wanted to say THANK YOU for creating such a quality article and articulating your methodology in an easily digestible way.

The various nuances that affect point systems in each state are quite a challenge to understand and untangle. And each time a state makes a change to their point system or tag allocations it obviously can impact point holders in a variety of ways.

 

[Billinsd]

Excellent article!! Best of both worlds, engineering and science. Physics is one of my favorite subjects by far!! Great people too!! I enjoyed electrical magnetism the best in Physics. I have an MS in civil engineering and a BS in Geology, fun stuff.

 

[loggerchas]

Great article. I'm curious if in your examination you developed a feel for what resident trends might be?

As a stats and spreadsheet guy I loved the methodology used!