Unraveling The Mystery Of Point Creep, By Dr. Michael Street

[Trial153]

Good read.

 

[Jbone62]

Also an engineer... what you outlined validates some suspicions that have been coming to mind.

Bit unfortunate but it seems that nonresident hunting is getting that much more out of reach for the average person.

props for doing the grunt work.

 

[street]

Great article. I'm curious if in your examination you developed a feel for what resident trends might be?

As a stats and spreadsheet guy I loved the methodology used!

Thanks for the comment logger. I looked at the resident data as well. The trends are quite similar for 3 plus preference points. 0 to 2 preference points were fairly stable.

 

[street]

I would really be nice to now how many of those with 10+ points are 60+ years in age. My father has a lot of points and will be 71 this year. He doesn't move like he used to. It sucks.

He is one below max in CO for sheep (applied for Desert one year) and I have to talk him into applying now. I'd go with him and have visited with a guide that would accommodate him the best he could, should he draw. I think the sheep, goat, and moose tags are all going to be grabbed by the 3+0 guys this year.

I've thought about digging up the details and modeling the Sheep and Goat draw process. It's obviously more random but one could quantify how much more of a chance a guy with X amount of bonus points has over someone with 3+0, for example.

 

[Rob5589]

Great article. The recent Exo podcast had the head of Huntinfool on it discussing this exact topic. I had no idea there was a difference between pref points and bonus points. I assumed two names, same thing. The main take away was; generally, anything over about 4 points is a waste of time and money if you're just getting started. Some CO zones are currently 29 pp, and rising. Crazy.

 

[axemill]

I wonder how much money point creep is making? I would believe it is being looked at strategically to see how demand will respond

 

[Rich M]

Bit unfortunate but it seems that nonresident hunting is getting that much more out of reach for the average person.

NR fees should be a barrier but they are not - folks are gonna pay whatever it takes to do what they want. People on a budget, they won't be able to go - or can go once or twice in a lifetime.

@axemill - I believe the pref point fees are keeping the license and other fees lower. IMO, they are used by F&W agencies.

 

[ZH1]

Great Article, learned a lot.

 

[5MilesBack]

I've never really viewed PP's and point creep as a mystery, but I've also been watching and analyzing them for decades. It's quite different I'm sure for NR's........especially those just entering the game. Some of the points it takes for NR's to get certain tags is ridiculous........and I'm not just talking about the quantity of points, but the ratio between "points needed" versus "quality of hunt". It's insane for NR's to spend 18 points on a unit that takes 4 points as a resident........but it is what it is. Plan accordingly and choose wisely is all I can say about that.

 

[dtrkyman]

We need to know the average age of max point holders, I know a guy who passed with 21 CO. Elk points.

 

[DAdams]

I get discouraged when I learn how far behind in the game I really am..

 

[street]

I get discouraged when I learn how far behind in the game I really am..

Don't be, there are plenty of opportunities to be had.

 

[5MilesBack]

I get discouraged when I learn how far behind in the game I really am..

I've been collecting points for my oldest daughter since she was 12 or 13. Well, she's 22 now and has enough points to draw the ML tag I want her to get, but she can't make it this year. I was thinking "no problem" she'll draw next year. Well, I wasn't considering life choices in the matter at all. She's graduating from college in May and is taking a job out of state..........so next year she will be a NON-RESIDENT. Oh crap! Wasn't planning on that. Now she needs a bunch more points to draw.......LOL, plus the extra costs every year just to get a point.

 

[MOhunter46]

Great article

 

[DAdams]

Don't be, there are plenty of opportunities to be had.

I have figured out that if I can apply for units that have a 15% harvest rate, my draw odds definitely go up and if I have the time to hunt, I can make something happen!

 

[cmeadors13]

interesting

 

[ndfb35]

The sad truth of what happens when you want your friends and family to enjoy what you have gotten to enjoy with a rising population. Along with social media and those who make a living off it pushing for others to hunt the West.

The trend of multiple out-of-state hunts by many individuals may be moving towards an end unless you can afford to hunt with an outfitter which also goes along with the trend of hunting becoming pay-to-play.

I can't think of a way to change the course of things. What are some of your guys thoughts?

 

[jaywalker168]

Thanks for the article

 

[mountainshedpro]

 

[LaHunter]

Limited Resource
Limited Habitat (and most likely decreasing, overall, due to development)
Increasing Resident Populations in western states
Increasing Non Resident Demand for western hunting
States currently with point systems dependent on the generated revenue, so the point systems probably are not going away.

Not really a mystery. If you see the amount of point holders in a given state, and the growth of that number annually, you get the picture.