The Rokslide Stock Traders Thread

[fmyth]

CEP is up 26% today and 216% for the 8 days I've owned it. I fully expect this to crash and burn but for now I will enjoy the ride.

 

[MountainTracker]

CEP is up 26% today and 216% for the 8 days I've owned it. I fully expect this to crash and burn but for now I will enjoy the ride.
View attachment 874021

I expect it to go fully nuts when they announce a buy, and then pull back.

I was looking at it this morning think shoulda coulda but didn’t haha


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[stevewes2004]

My Feb/Mar/April buys for MSTX

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[fmyth]

I expect it to go fully nuts when they announce a buy, and then pull back.

I was looking at it this morning think shoulda coulda but didn’t haha


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Yeah I should have bought more in my IRA when I made that initial purchase last week. 2 days ago I bought a little in my SEP and its up 68%. Not life changing amounts but it is fun to catch a rocket ride every once in a while.

 

[fmyth]

My Feb/Mar/April buys for MSTX

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I thought I was a degenerate gambler but you sir, you win with the MSTX bet! Congrats!

 

[signing off]

MSTR has earnings reports today after hours. I believe this is the first time they will be able to include BTC on their balance sheets.

It will be interesting to see how that plays out in that area today. Btc up, MSTR up 4%, msty and etfs up 2.5%.


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That's good info. I'm clearing some funds in a Roth to buy more MSTY this week. I might end up paying more than I planned. Or less?

 

[chanson_roland]

That's good info. I'm clearing some funds in a Roth to buy more MSTY this week. I might end up paying more than I planned. Or less?

I'll simply say this:

I did a deep dive analysis on MSTR when they started recruiting me, and visited the company HQ.

There's virtually no one there. Their core applications business is so eroded, and existing customers are fleeing to other BI tools so quickly that the company has become little more than a leveraged shell to acquire BTC.

In my opinion, when the leverage goes south, this thing goes "boom".

I don't own it. I bought BTC Greyscale ETF instead.

 

[MountainTracker]

I'll simply say this:

I did a deep dive analysis on MSTR when after they started recruiting me, and visited the company HQ.

There's virtually no one there. Their core applications business is so eroded, and existing customers are fleeing to other BI tools so quickly that the company has become little more than a leveraged shell to acquire BTC.

In my opinion, when the leverage goes south, this thing goes "boom".

I don't own it. I both BTC Greyscale ETF instead.

Out of curiosity were you being recruited for btc applications or other? You don’t have to reply if you’re not comfortable with it. Just curious.


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[chanson_roland]

Won't go into too much detail, but my analysis came down to this:

- There are really two companies here: (1) a dying applications software company with an installed base being eroded by Microsoft, Tableau, and others, and (2) a leveraged BTC holding company.

- The two businesses aren't linked; for example, there is no ability of the BI software to provide analytics on the BTC holdings (*which could be an interesting fintech*)

Saylor and Phong Le are essentially using public stock to borrow and acquire more BTC.

- The company is issuing a ton of corporate debt to finance those acquisitions

- The interest on the corporate debt can't be paid by the net income of the apps business

Their ability to borrow is based on the company's market capitalization; if the BTC increases, they can borrow, but if it doesn't, they cannot access the debt market. If they can't borrow for some other macro reason, it's also not good.

Now, if they spun the holding company out as a standalone, that might be interesting, but there's nothing to differentiate them from an ETF.

So, if you've got some play money, it might be worth it for the entertainment value.

If you think about any of the fundamentals of a sustainable business, this ain't it.

The entire place reminds me of this scene from Margin Call.

 

[Historybuff]

I'll simply say this:

I did a deep dive analysis on MSTR when they started recruiting me, and visited the company HQ.

There's virtually no one there. Their core applications business is so eroded, and existing customers are fleeing to other BI tools so quickly that the company has become little more than a leveraged shell to acquire BTC.

In my opinion, when the leverage goes south, this thing goes "boom".

I don't own it. I both BTC Greyscale ETF instead.

You were recruited by the company with the greatest business model in the world? You do realize, there's no second best?

 

[chanson_roland]

You were recruited by the company with the greatest business model in the world? You do realize, there's no second best?

LOL. Every lead in the series "Narcos" said the same thing....

 

[Poser]

I don't own it. I bought BTC Greyscale ETF instead.

Same here. Not opposed to it, but Microstrategy just seemed like a 3rd party way to achieve the same ends long term.

 

[fmyth]

You were recruited by the company with the greatest business model in the world? You do realize, there's no second best?

I'll just follow the money:

"Cantor Fitzgerald, under the previous leadership of Howard Lutnick, purchased more than $1 billion worth of MicroStrategy (MSTR) shares in the fourth quarter of 2024, making it the company's largest shareholder. The average purchase price was $229, and the value of these shares has now risen by 47%.

Lutnick is currently the head of US President Trump's newly established sovereign wealth fund and also serves as Secretary of Commerce."

 

[fmyth]

Same here. Not opposed to it, but Microstrategy just seemed like a 3rd party way to achieve the same ends long term.

Over the past five years, Strategy is now up 2,758%, compared to Bitcoin's 956%.

 

[stevewes2004]

Over the past five years, Strategy is now up 2,758%, compared to Bitcoin's 956%.
View attachment 874064

There are plenty of nay-sayers and doubters. But you cannot argue with results.


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[Poser]

Over the past five years, Strategy is now up 2,758%, compared to Bitcoin's 956%.

Completely valid and I don't dispute it. However:

-Direct Exposure & Purity: Investing directly in Bitcoin gives you pure, unadulterated exposure to the asset itself. MSTR stock price is heavily influenced by Bitcoin, but it's not a perfect 1:1 correlation. You avoid exposure to MicroStrategy's underlying software business performance.

-Operational Risk of MicroStrategy: MSTR is still an operating software company. Its stock price can be affected by factors unrelated to Bitcoin, such as the performance of its core business intelligence software, competition, management decisions, and general market sentiment towards tech stocks. Poor performance in the software division could drag the stock down even if Bitcoin's price rises.

-Management Risk: Investing in MSTR means you are also investing in the decisions and strategy of its management team, particularly Michael Saylor. Changes in leadership or strategy could impact the company's direction and stock value, independent of Bitcoin's price.

-Leverage Risk: MicroStrategy has often used debt to finance its Bitcoin purchases. This leverage magnifies both potential gains and potential losses. If Bitcoin's price drops significantly, the debt burden could become a major risk for MSTR, potentially more so than for an individual holding unleveraged Bitcoin.

-Premium/Discount Risk: MSTR often trades at a significant premium to the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings. This means you might be paying more per "share" of Bitcoin through MSTR than buying Bitcoin directly. This premium can evaporate quickly based on market sentiment, causing MSTR to underperform Bitcoin. It could also sometimes trade at a discount, but the risk of the premium changing is always there.

-Complexity & Fees: Buying Bitcoin directly can be simpler and potentially have lower holding costs depending on the storage method.

-Dilution Risk: MicroStrategy may issue more stock in the future to raise capital (potentially to buy more Bitcoin or fund operations), which dilutes existing shareholders. Bitcoin itself has a fixed supply cap and isn't subject to this type of corporate dilution.

-Direct Ownership & Control: Holding Bitcoin directly gives you cryptographic ownership and control (if held in a self-custody wallet). Owning MSTR stock gives you ownership in a company that owns Bitcoin, which is a layer removed.

investing directly in Bitcoin is a focused bet on the asset itself, while investing in MicroStrategy is a leveraged bet on Bitcoin plus a bet on the company's operational success and management strategy. If your sole goal is Bitcoin exposure, the direct route is simpler and avoids company-specific risks.

 

[chanson_roland]

There are plenty of nay-sayers and doubters. But you cannot argue with results.


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MSTR was at $294 in March of 2000.

It took until Nov of 2024 to get back to that level, adjusting for all splits/stock issuances.

Almost 25 Years to get back to where you'd started.

I'm just saying be aware of what you're getting into.

 

[fmyth]

Completely valid and I don't dispute it. However:

-Direct Exposure & Purity: Investing directly in Bitcoin gives you pure, unadulterated exposure to the asset itself. MSTR stock price is heavily influenced by Bitcoin, but it's not a perfect 1:1 correlation. You avoid exposure to MicroStrategy's underlying software business performance.

-Operational Risk of MicroStrategy: MSTR is still an operating software company. Its stock price can be affected by factors unrelated to Bitcoin, such as the performance of its core business intelligence software, competition, management decisions, and general market sentiment towards tech stocks. Poor performance in the software division could drag the stock down even if Bitcoin's price rises.

-Management Risk: Investing in MSTR means you are also investing in the decisions and strategy of its management team, particularly Michael Saylor. Changes in leadership or strategy could impact the company's direction and stock value, independent of Bitcoin's price.

-Leverage Risk: MicroStrategy has often used debt to finance its Bitcoin purchases. This leverage magnifies both potential gains and potential losses. If Bitcoin's price drops significantly, the debt burden could become a major risk for MSTR, potentially more so than for an individual holding unleveraged Bitcoin.

-Premium/Discount Risk: MSTR often trades at a significant premium to the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings. This means you might be paying more per "share" of Bitcoin through MSTR than buying Bitcoin directly. This premium can evaporate quickly based on market sentiment, causing MSTR to underperform Bitcoin. It could also sometimes trade at a discount, but the risk of the premium changing is always there.

-Complexity & Fees: Buying Bitcoin directly can be simpler and potentially have lower holding costs depending on the storage method.

-Dilution Risk: MicroStrategy may issue more stock in the future to raise capital (potentially to buy more Bitcoin or fund operations), which dilutes existing shareholders. Bitcoin itself has a fixed supply cap and isn't subject to this type of corporate dilution.

-Direct Ownership & Control: Holding Bitcoin directly gives you cryptographic ownership and control (if held in a self-custody wallet). Owning MSTR stock gives you ownership in a company that owns Bitcoin, which is a layer removed.

investing directly in Bitcoin is a focused bet on the asset itself, while investing in MicroStrategy is a leveraged bet on Bitcoin plus a bet on the company's operational success and management strategy. If your sole goal is Bitcoin exposure, the direct route is simpler and avoids company-specific risks.

I bought my first 2 BTC for 8k and have been buying daily since. I have MSTY, GBTC, IBIT, FBTC, MSTR, CEP, and several BTC miners in my Roth, SEP, and traditional IRA that don't allow me to own actual BTC.
MSTR is the fastest horse in the race. It also has the highest risk which may not be appropriate for all investors. I am 57, retired, have 0 debt, and live off the dividends I receive from my MSTY and PLTY shares in my traditional brokerage account. Everyones situation is different.

 

[fmyth]

MSTR was at $294 in March of 2000.

It took until Nov of 2024 to get back to that level, adjusting for all splits/stock issuances.

Almost 25 Years to get back to where you'd started.

I'm just saying be aware of what you're getting into.

MSTR had a completely different business model in 2000. I started buying it in late 2020 after they adopted a new business model. "Since adopting a Bitcoin strategy on August 10, 2020, the company has achieved an annualized return of 124%, outperforming all major asset classes."

 

[Crowmangler]

@Poser has good points. If I was in your position @fmyth I'd ride that train too.
MSTR is a very intriguing company & I've sat on the sidelines & watched them without buying for years.
As of today, I can say that was a mistake.
Saylor has my respect as a great example of Roosevelt's "the man in the arena".
But listening to him turns a lot of people off because you never hear anything but moon boy platitudes.
Keep in mind that there's not a single person on the planet that has more to lose than him if BTC shits the bed one day.