The Rokslide Stock Traders Thread

[aftriathlete]

I’ve been watching a couple different Mortgage REITs since probably January. Thought about dipping my toe in then at “historically cheap prices” but thankfully I didn’t and I watched them fall another 20+ percent from there. How low can they go? It’s a bet on how far the housing market still has to fall.

 

[aftriathlete]

Bizarro world continues, there is still just too much reckless greed in the market. Silvergate Capital. The TLDR story for anyone not following: most shorted stock in the US for a couple months in a row because of serious financial issues somewhat associated with the FTX/Alameda/BTC fallout and just the general crypto fast and loose, irresponsible behavior. Reddit Meme Stock crowd tries to squeeze the shorts last week or the week before, fail on more bad news out of Silvergate, then yesterday Silvergate announces they're closing up shop. Stock tanks as money rushes out after hours yesterday. Then the speculators and Reddit crowd emerge from the shadows to BTFD (buy the ___ dip) and the stock is back up something like 50% since its after-hours low yesterday.

I can only guess what they're betting on -- government bailout, or some other crypto company stepping in to bail them out or buy them out. Or just they're counting on the gambling/speculation that is playing out just like it has been since 2020. But this is literally a company that just announced they are closing because they can't pay their debts. So stupid...

EDIT: I should add, stupid TO ME as a guy that doesn't have the stomach for "trading." Probably doesn't seem so stupid to the gamblers that are up 50% since yesterday.

 

[Danny Hoey]

Snagged another 30 shares of UUUU. Long term hold, with flips in between. Usually doesn't stay under 6 for long.

 

[N.ID7803]

Snagged another 30 shares of UUUU. Long term hold, with flips in between. Usually doesn't stay under 6 for long.

Ive been contemplating selling my GTE and dumping it in UUUU. Good day to get in. Have you looked at URG? Similar to UUUU but cheaper.

 

[Danny Hoey]

Ive been contemplating selling my GTE and dumping it in UUUU. Good day to get in. Have you looked at URG? Similar to UUUU but cheaper.

I have not. Trying to stay diversified and I'm pretty deep in UUUU.

 

[ghostmoney]

Yep, that's nicely summed up I'd say.
That $1-a-share upcoming Q2 divi is a helluva perk, but as you alluded, the barcode has been exhausting.

$1/share Q2 divi?

 

[Beendare]

The SVB story is worth a look as to the “Why” they are undercapitalized.….

could be the one cockroach theory.

 

[Johnboy]

$1/share Q2 divi?

I read it to be $.05/share for the quarter, which amounts to $.20/share/year if issued every quarter. Agree, @Broomd?

 

[Broomd]

Well, I thought PR had proposed two dividends, the .05 quarterly and a one-time special divi. Aggravating.

I posted on this at the ST and received this from another:

View Full Conversation

 

[svivian]

The SVB story is worth a look as to the “Why” they are undercapitalized.….

could be the one cockroach theory.

Being that I work in banking...... this really beat up my retirement portfolio. Luckily I have time on my side.

 

[ghostmoney]

Well, I thought PR had proposed two dividends, the .05 quarterly and a one-time special divi. Aggravating.

I posted on this at the ST and received this from another:

View Full Conversation

The variable dividend is supposed to be paid out quarterly along with the base dividend. I ended up selling all of my PR on Monday figuring we would have another pull back to low 10's - high 9's.

 

[Broomd]

The variable dividend is supposed to be paid out quarterly along with the base dividend. I ended up selling all of my PR on Monday figuring we would have another pull back to low 10's - high 9's.

Yeah, I figured that the two divis would be the case after the latest read. lol. I initially thought the variable was a one time payment rather than a 1/4ly.

Congrats on the ride, I almost sold...still hanging on and always eyeing that exit.
I knew that we'd see $10.68 within a week of $12.05 and damned if we didn't. $14 will likely happen, it's a matter of when.

Still lots of uncertainly out there.

 

[Kilboars]

Bizarro world continues, there is still just too much reckless greed in the market. Silvergate Capital. The TLDR story for anyone not following: most shorted stock in the US for a couple months in a row because of serious financial issues somewhat associated with the FTX/Alameda/BTC fallout and just the general crypto fast and loose, irresponsible behavior. Reddit Meme Stock crowd tries to squeeze the shorts last week or the week before, fail on more bad news out of Silvergate, then yesterday Silvergate announces they're closing up shop. Stock tanks as money rushes out after hours yesterday. Then the speculators and Reddit crowd emerge from the shadows to BTFD (buy the ___ dip) and the stock is back up something like 50% since its after-hours low yesterday.

I can only guess what they're betting on -- government bailout, or some other crypto company stepping in to bail them out or buy them out. Or just they're counting on the gambling/speculation that is playing out just like it has been since 2020. But this is literally a company that just announced they are closing because they can't pay their debts. So stupid...

EDIT: I should add, stupid TO ME as a guy that doesn't have the stomach for "trading." Probably doesn't seem so stupid to the gamblers that are up 50% since yesterday.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[aftriathlete]

Anyone concerned about a bank run tomorrow? When the #18 biggest bank in the US goes tits up in the blink of an eye, my checking account sitting with the #20 biggest bank in the US all of a sudden seems very vulnerable. Or my brokerage with the #8 biggest bank. Headlines are spooky today.

Been researching all morning and can’t really find an answer to my satisfaction to how safe my cash is in Schwab’s money market funds. Schwab stock got crushed Thur/Fri worse than any other big bank. Money market funds are not FDIC insured, but I can’t figure if that just means the possible loss of value if the fund loses its peg to $1 isn’t covered (so chaos ensues and money markets drop to $.97 kind of situation), or if just straight up, you have money in money market funds, the bank goes tits up, you’re screwed and that money is lost. I may sell the money market funds tomorrow to get just back into plain cash balance as that should be FDIC covered up to $250K.

Feels a lot like this is the chickens finally coming home to roost after all the easy money of the last two decades.

 

[Paradox]

You have SIPC for brokerage accounts at $500000, including up to $250000 cash protection.
I think if you and another half million people bail in am it’s just going to trash the market. Which may happen anyway. Another thing, i think funds only settle at end of day so you may not gain anything or may lose quite a bit over sitting tight
but what do I know… Basement Biden seems to be succeeding in trashing the country

 

[eddielasvegas]

Monday is going to be an interesting day. My 2 cents is the markets will be down a fair amount (especially since Yellen said no SVB bailout), but the general population does not care, or is clueless, about these rather troublesome financial matters.

I have had a fair amount of my cash in Treasuries for the past few months for these exact reasons....at some point the chickens will come home to roost (to quote distinguished member @aftriathlete) and I'll continue that approach for the foreseeable future, especially if the Fed continue to raise rates.

OTOH, if our economy and the stock markets go to instant crap over the next few weeks, the FOMC will have no choice but to pivot, and in a big way.

Fasten your seat belts ladies and germs, this week might be a wild ride.


Eddie

P.S. I just checked the Asian markets and those are down ~2% or more.

P.S.S. Even though Yellen said no SVB bailout, I'll be shocked if that holds up as ~97% of SVB's deposits were not insured due to exceeding the 250k limit. Way too many influential people in that 97% for the Fed to just walk away. For example, ROKU had 500 million in SVB, or about 25% of their cash. Mark Cuban had about 10 million in SVB, but that's like a gnat on an elephant's azz to him.

 

[BBob]

ES Mini 03_13_2023 Not crushed at open, early so we'll see how it shakes out.

 

[ThorM465]

Looks like another bank in NY, Signature Bank I think, went tits up and was closed this weekend. I think I saw where there was one more. People are speculating that first republic bank is next.

I'm as close to a libertarian as one can be without being one and this is where it shows. Our financial system is our greatest national defense asset. If the Fed doesn't step in and ensure the depositors (not the bank or investors), this could be the end of our financial system as we know it. Our systems depends on the world's total confidence that your money is safe in an American bank.

Monday is looking like a blood bath.

 

[BBob]

If the Fed doesn't step in and ensure the depositors (not the bank or investors),

The FED response has been just that, they will protect the deposits but not the bank.

MSN

 

[aftriathlete]

You have SIPC for brokerage accounts at $500000, including up to $250000 cash protection.
I think if you and another half million people bail in am it’s just going to trash the market. Which may happen anyway. Another thing, i think funds only settle at end of day so you may not gain anything or may lose quite a bit over sitting tight
but what do I know… Basement Biden seems to be succeeding in trashing the country

Ah yeah, SIPC coverage too, I never think about that one, only FDIC.

Fed just announced first new bailout program — Bank Term Funding Program — to ensure liquidity in the system and “bolster the capacity of the banking system to safeguard deposits and ensure the ongoing provision of money and credit to the economy."

Futures are already WAY up on the news. So this is the big break that the Fed would tighten til (The Fed will tighten til something breaks), and I suppose good chance the whole tightening and raising rates dream is already over. Kinda crazy to think that our leveraged economy couldn’t even get to 5% rates before total electrical failure.

Ha, seeing this new program, BTFP, already being referred to as “Buy the F—ing Pivot.” Anybody’s guess now what happens this week on another hot CPI print. Is that a huge selloff or a huge buy? Volatility is going to be insane this week.