Pay off mortgage or make monthly payments and invest the rest?

If I had only bought those houses when I was in kindergarten. Damn,

Let the lesson be drawn here.

The value of things rise and fall. Much of it is unpredictable. And is getting more unpredictable.

You could have a prepper mindset and pay cash for everything and live in the woods with MRE’s and 100k rounds of ammo and a steel bunker. This person is predicting a worst case outcome. They are well prepared for it. But they’re going to be ill prepared for the likely outcome, relative to those who planned for the likely outcome. Maybe they’re happy with that.

Or, you could predict the most likely outcome - which is that generally life and civilization will go on for you and your kids.

Taking that assumption on board, and knowing that the value of different assets will rise and fall, there’s one constant - liquidity.

Having all of your net worth tied up in an illiquid asset that could rise or fall is not a good strategy for taking advantage of the rise or fall in value of some other asset.

Having liquidity to cover your debts should your income situation change, is a good thing in the most likely scenario. Why? It allows you to take advantage of ways to increase your income when they arise.

It’s risk tolerance and risk aversion. The whole conversation in here though is about a perceived risk that is being overstated.


Also, it should be noted that if the world ends, no one will care if you or the bank owned your house the day before. If I want your house you telling me you paid cash for it isn’t going to matter to me.
 
UPS laying off 20,000 doesn't sound like a great bellwether

I like to believe I’m an independent thinker, and this one of those instances. I don’t believe this is political in any way.

 
I like to believe I’m an independent thinker, and this one of those instances. I don’t believe this is political in any way.


Thanks for the article. Seems in conflict with this article that quotes UPS as saying layoffs are due to "changes in the global trade policy and new or increased tariffs”


Also my original post was supposed to go in the Stock Traders thread. Thats what I get for having 37 open tabs.
 
Listening to smart people talk gives me heartburn. Wish I understood it all better.
Reading this thread is a start. There are a lot of smart comments here one Can use to help develop a strategy. Lots of books on the subject too.

It’s not a lot of math more common sense.

Develop a household budget- know how much you make, how much you pay in taxes, and how much you spend

Do not, under any circumstances, take on debt at a high interest rate (credit cards, high interest, rate, auto loans, etc.)

Your home and mortgage has been covered here in depth.

Investing in the stock market and bonds is all a matter of dollar cost averaging a little bit at a time. VOO is a good and should be a core holding in your portfolio.

It’s all common sense really, just live within your means and save a little bit every month for the future. Then make sure that that money you’re saving is working for you.
 
Thanks for the article. Seems in conflict with this article that quotes UPS as saying layoffs are due to "changes in the global trade policy and new or increased tariffs”


Also my original post was supposed to go in the Stock Traders thread. Thats what I get for having 37 open tabs.
What UPS is not saying is; they lost a couple big shipping accounts, outfits like Amazon now do all of their own shipping and their legacy costs plus union labor are high.
 
The main issue with threads like these...."I could pay cash, but I'd rather invest it" is.....

I don't believe the regular guy making monthly payments on anything, is putting the exact X amount of dollars into stocks or ETF's on the 15th of every month instead.

Now, if you have a mortgage balance of $200K, and you also have $200K+ in your taxable brokerage account that is liquid, then OK, you can pat yourself on the back....I guess. But the reality is, you are in the top 2% of people in the United States, and are really just humble bragging. Most guys anywhere, therefore here, are not in that situation, so this conversation is nothing more than a circle jerk for a few, and for the rest who don't have what you do....a theoretical rationalization to affirm having debt, which anyone who has been on the other side of it knows is not preferrable to being debt free.
 
The main issue with threads like these...."I could pay cash, but I'd rather invest it" is.....

I don't believe the regular guy making monthly payments on anything, is putting the exact X amount of dollars into stocks or ETF's on the 15th of every month instead.

Now, if you have a mortgage balance of $200K, and you also have $200K+ in your taxable brokerage account that is liquid, then OK, you can pat yourself on the back....I guess. But the reality is, you are in the top 2% of people in the United States, and are really just humble bragging. Most guys anywhere, therefore here, are not in that situation, so this conversation is nothing more than a circle jerk for a few, and for the rest who don't have what you do....a theoretical rationalization to affirm having debt, which anyone who has been on the other side of it knows is not preferrable to being debt free.
Posting for the irony..... and to maintain my current title.


 
This confuses me. How is a 2.8% mortgage "Like Free Money"?
one way to look at it is just to consider inflation. I'm not sure ive seen that angle discussed yet.

I.e...$200,000 in 2020 is going to be worth way more than $200,000 in 2050 (and even most likely more than the interest that initial $200,000 has accrued).

But you've locked in the 2.8% at 2020 $ values. And then you add on top of that, the value of the house increasing.

And then you consider that any dollar youd invest in some normal S&P 500 index would return 8+%....

Aint no way im paying off my house early at 3.125% (Current interest rates might change my tune)

If a man really was that pressed to get out of the house payments he should put his extra money into an account that is tracking s&p 500....growing at 8+%...until it hits the payoff amount.

And frankly thats the most conservative play. If shit happens, would you rather have no job and your money locked into equity and have no mortgage payments....or have no job, mortgage payments, and an account sitting there with 50-150K that you could tap into within 3 days? thats a lot of buffer.
 
Posting for the irony..... and to maintain my current title.


Wait…how did you get a cool title?!

Tony just shoots down my good ideas.
 
Honestly surprised that I've been able to stand you guys that long...
Dont worry youll be old and crotchety one day too. Instead of bitching about these young people spending money on starbucks it will be their vape pen addiction.
 
Could it be that a lot of people saying to invest have no choice?
Many people are happy to disclose the low mortgage interest rate they have because they most likely bought in the last 5 yrs, if so they also over paid for their home and have very little if any equity in the house because the housing market has taken a downturn, why would you pay off a house with little to gain?
Also paying off a house you purchased 15yrs ago for $300k is a lot easier than $700k house you purchased in 2020.
Those that say invest should also state how many years they have to go on their mortgage.
I’m probably totally wrong, just had a crazy thought.
 
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