Look at the numbers...
Tags Drawn 2020 (All Seasons)
Total- 22,371
Res-19,849
NR- 1,022
OP- 1,500
1st Choice Apps
Res- 58,821
NR- 13,353
OP- 9,159
In 2020 rough odds for a NR were .076% (1,022/13,353). The proposed change if say 10% of the outfitter pool are residents would increase odds to .104%(2,237/21,596). Those are rough quick look numbers, take out the units without 10 tags or the tags only a resident is able to draw and it lowers it even more. Add to the fact they're talking about redoing the eplus system and making the unit wide tags from smaller landowners only available to residents and it tightens that number up even more. A lot of NR either use that system as a backup or a complete bypass to the draw each year. I don't think that'll happen but if it does we'll be right back where we started as Non Residents.
Also to note is if you look at the tags the residents apply for and talk to some of them they mostly apply for the best units and then complain about never drawing a tag. There's no strategy. Over 5500 residents didn't put in a 3rd choice, over 15,000 applied for 3,000 tags in the Gila and 34/36. I get it but don't complain if you only put one unit or the hardest to draw units as your only choices. Let's be honest the only reason they're looking at these things are people complaining about residents not having opportunity.
I get it, I do but they also have to look at the non resident license sales contribution to department funding and the infusion of non resident money into the local economy. I love New Mexico, hunted tags I've drawn, bought, public, private, and with an outfitter over the last 25 years. Considering NM is probably the poorest of the "elk" states, no basis on that, just observation, I think they need to sell as many NR tags as possible each year. Don't even get me started on the litter in the forest there, I've went in behind way more locals and picked up trash than non residents, that comparison is not even close. Rant over........