MT Big Game Combo Draw Odds published

[Rifleman86]

Looks like MT NR big game combo and deer draw odds from this year have been posted.

https://myfwp.mt.gov/getRepositoryFile?objectID=106434



Interesting that applications dropped by nearly 9000 from 2021 to 2022. Guess that COVID bump was real, and all is not lost for the western hunter.

I’ll make a bold prediction that they might not sell all 17,000 NR tags next year on the initial draw if gas prices remain insane and the economy continues its downward spiral.

 

[Arctic Hunter]

I think everybody just moved here instead.

 

[cgasner1]

I think they probably sent out the number of tags issued on this instead of draw odds


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[Pacific_Fork]

They all applied for wyo general this year, don’t worry apps will be back up 10k next year lol

 

[Norm555]

Pretty interesting to see how many fewer applications occurred in 2022 than 2021. Clearly the covid effect was real.

 

[Ross]

Those extra $$ the government gave in 2020 bought some tags in 2021…more realistic numbers this year and if things keep tanking and rising on costs the number will shrink again…..saw this back in 2008 tags were easy to come by back then

 

[ez_willie]

Interesting they left off 2022 1 pp draw odds hmmm

 

[George Hamrick]

Probably a bunch of guys having babies this Fall as well. I didn’t apply anywhere because of it. The Covid baby boom is going to be a real thing.

 

[Rifleman86]

Interesting they left off 2022 1 pp draw odds hmmm

Because it was 0%.

In hindsight I was a total idiot applying at 1 PP this year. Had other primary plans anyway… Should’ve just waited for the PP only period and bought a point.

Though I will say the outfitter 2 PP rule didn’t hurt nearly as bad as I thought.

 

[DWarcher]

I think everybody just moved here instead.

I would guess there is definitely something to that theory. New 'residents' in 2021 that became legal residents in 2020.

 

[mossyoak52]

Pretty interesting to see how many fewer applications occurred in 2022 than 2021. Clearly the covid effect was real.

inflation and gas prices

 

[Aa03]

Ya I got drawn first year applying. Couldn’t be more excited

 

[Erict]

Interesting they left off 2022 1 pp draw odds hmmm

If you add up the numbers and subtract, it appears that there were 4364 apps with 0.1-1.9 PP. Looks like someone quickly typed up a document just to get it posted, but if they went that far they might as well have released the data in their "standardized" format . Maybe they will do so later, when their staff is done licking envelopes for the refund checks.

 

[Usi05]

I was regretting not buying my 3rd point to make it a guaranteed draw but felt good about last years draw stars.

Worked out well for me. Next time I’ll likely buy the point and not sweat it but I have other hunts this season so I just figured if I didn’t draw then so be it.


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[ez_willie]

If you add up the numbers and subtract, it appears that there were 4364 apps with 0.1-1.9 PP. Looks like someone quickly typed up a document just to get it posted, but if they went that far they might as well have released the data in their "standardized" format . Maybe they will do so later, when their staff is done licking envelopes for the refund checks.

I agree, first time I've seen decimals incorporated into their statistics as well. Quite a drop off in people applying with 1 PP. I like my conspiracy theory that they just didn't want people seeing that 0 was a higher draw % than 1 again, which cost them close to $1.5 million in PP money. Would be nice to see it in their standard format.

 

[Forkieslayer]

It looks like Colorado had a slight decrease in elk and mule deer applications this year. I believe I’m looking at the right numbers. As far as Montana is concerned I think ill stay out of the preference point system and just start rolling the dice with zero.

 

[fatlander]

Looks like MT NR big game combo and deer draw odds from this year have been posted.

https://myfwp.mt.gov/getRepositoryFile?objectID=106434

View attachment 419790

Interesting that applications dropped by nearly 9000 from 2021 to 2022. Guess that COVID bump was real, and all is not lost for the western hunter.

I’ll make a bold prediction that they might not sell all 17,000 NR tags next year on the initial draw if gas prices remain insane and the economy continues its downward spiral.

Look at the total apps numbers. . . It’s about 1,000 less not 9,000.

They posted different point levels for the different years. This is what point creep looks like.

Leave it to Montana to not even post apple to apples draw odd results.


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[Rifleman86]

Look at the total apps numbers. . . It’s about 1,000 less not 9,000.

They posted different point levels for the different years. This is what point creep looks like.

Leave it to Montana to not even post apple to apples draw odd results.


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Looks like they updated it… My screenshot had different numbers than what is currently posted as far as total apps.

Leave it to Montana…

 

[Gutshot007]

I'm from the Montana fwp and here to help you with your drawing. ........ possibly the most terrifying words an elk hunter could hear -Ronald Reagan