More elk killed by mtn lions than wolves?

[Praxeus]

Except that many areas of North Idaho and Western Montana have wolves that weren't reintroduced...

If creating a "bogus" report, why show such a slight difference in how many "more" elk are killed by lions than wolves?

I mean, get real, if you're going to falsify a report to push an agenda, then show a 10%, 20% difference...

Some people still think the world is flat...so there is that.

The indigenous populations of wolves prior to reintroduction? Why re-introduce them if they were doing so good Mr. BuzzH? The fact of the matter is, it was highly politicized by liberal special interest groups like the Sierra club. With a democrat president and environmentalism propaganda gaining ground, it was a damning combination. The wolf populations of both north and central Idaho and NW Montana has skyrocketed since reintroduction. This conversation is actually a waste of time. Time to go back out and SSS

 

[a_noob_hunter]

I believe it but not grown elk. Mtn lions and bears kill more calf elk but wolves easily kill more grown, mature elk

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[ChrisS]

Here's a link to the abstract. If you want to read the whole study, you can probably do so through a university library computer system or pay $7 for 48 hours access to the paper.

Here was the objective of the study: "To better understand the implications of predator management on elk populations, we monitored survival of 1,244 adult female elk and 806 6‐month‐old calves from 29 populations distributed throughout Idaho, USA, from 2004 to 2016"

Here was their take away, which is pretty weird for an alleged pointy-headed liberal scientist pro-wolf group: "Our study indicates managers can increase elk survival by reducing wolf pack sizes on surrounding winter ranges, especially in areas where, or during years when, snow is deep."

Here's where the headline came from (bold) that got everyone riled up and started making their observations that the study is flawed and stupid: "Although our study was prompted by management questions related to wolves, mountain lions killed more elk than wolves and differences in selection of individual elk indicate mountain lions may have comparably more of an effect on elk population dynamics. Although we were unable to relate changes in mountain lion populations to elk survival in our study, future research should seek a better understanding of multi‐predator systems, including how management of one predator affect others and ultimately how these interactions affect elk survival. "

The underlined is the more relevant information. This is how science works. You make a hypothesis, design a study, and then evaluate what you saw. The most interesting information that can be drawn from a study usually isn't a "ha, take that, I'm right!", it's "huh, that's unexpected, why is that?"

 

[Dos Perros]

I’m not sure why an elk wouldn’t be an opportunistic prey source for a cat? Haha “this “study” “...

This was conducted by some of the words best Wildlife Research Biologists. It’s science, it’s unbiased as it can get. They reported their findings. If you want to know where they did the study, read the paper- because it might tell you that.

One thing that carries weight with me, which was previously stated...cats were on the landscape (in varying densities) making their living and people became used to that level of predation. That level of predation may or may not have been noticeable to some people. Add another predator into the system and it changed what “normalized” prey densities are to hunters. Now it seems that wolves do all the killing, and the cats are flying under the radar so to speak because everyone is hyper aware of wolves.

As others have said too; that’s not to say that wolves aren’t forcing cats to kill more, or putting elk in a lower fitness level making them easier to kill, or pushing them to cats, etc.

I listen to Rinella too!

 

[slick]

Or have worked with those folks..

 

[TheTone]

What happened in North Idaho where it’s to brushy and steep to have four-wheelers or long shots with bow or rifle. Have you hunted in any of these places?

. No atvs or long shots in North Idaho? That certainly hasn’t been my experience. One group of long rangers that hunts near me can’t figure out why elk hunting sucks on years after they have really high success pounding elk at over a 1000 yards

 

[IdahoHntr]

After reading the actual study, I have no qualms with the information presented. For the purposes of this study, there was no sizable bias. Their whole purpose taken straight from the abstract was merely, "To better understand the implications of predator management on elk populations..." They did the study and they now know that mountain lions are killing a few more elk than they thought.

Now what the news articles and people in this thread are trying to do is to compare the effects of mountain lions and wolves on elk mortality using this study. This study was not intended to do that and so there is large amounts of bias in this comparison. Some examples off the top of my head are that the elk were not evenly distributed between the 29 populations chosen and the wolf and mountain lion populations were not taken into consideration or accounted for.

It is impossible to do a broad study like this without bias, especially when you have findings that you didn't expect or when people try to make conclusions from the data that weren't intended by the study. Completely unexpected results introduce elements that you didn't even know you should have been controlling to prevent bias.

A few interesting things that I think can add perspective to the findings of this study:

1. Population of wolves and mountain lions in Idaho - There are no real accurate estimates of populations of either wolves or mountain lions in the state of Idaho. "Current unofficial estimates put Idaho's wolf population over 1000 animals" according to the Idaho Governors office. The Idaho Fish and Game has never tried to estimate mountain lion populations. Predators are notoriously hard to estimate populations for. Some population estimates can be made through harvest statistics though. In 2016 (the most recent year with both wolf and lion harvest statistics available) there were 267 wolves killed by hunters compared to 629 mountain lions killed by hunters. I will let you guys decide where that puts population levels. (I believe the wolf harvest statistics include trapping, but don't quote me on that as I can't find a for sure yes or no.)

2. Predator dispersal throughout the state of Idaho - There are 99 different game management units in Idaho. In 2016 wolves were killed in 46 of these units. Mountain lions were killed in 80 of these units. 12 units had no predators of either species killed in them. While this obviously doesn't show either animals entire range, it does show that mountain lions are found and killed in many more areas of the state than wolves.

3. The #2 factor for predicting elk mortality in an area (#1 for calves was body size, #1 for adult cow elk was age), was the average size of the wolfpack in the area. This was before snow depths which was #3. This is taken straight from the abstract of the study itself. It wasn't the the lion population in the area, it was the wolf population in the area that had the greatest impact as far as predators on an elk's chance for survival.


Make your own conclusions from that added data, but in my opinion, it shows a couple things. One is that Idaho can't be lumped into one sum. Wolves are not distributed throughout all the places elk live in Idaho, but mountain lions are. The second is that even with this biased comparison (which is completely one way bias I might add), elk mortality by lion and wolf was very similar. Even though mountain lions are found in more places than wolves and arguably have a much larger population than wolves, they still only killed a similar amount of elk as wolves did in this study. I think that tells us that wolves can and will be more detrimental to an elk population than cats.

Not a wolf hater. I kill elk in units with decent wolf populations in Idaho. I'm not here to say "kill them all", but to say they have little to no effect on an elk population as some here all to often try to say (ESPECIALLY in areas with large populations of wolves) is just stupid and plain wrong.

 

[BeaverHunter]

After reading the actual study, I have no qualms with the information presented. For the purposes of this study, there was no sizable bias. Their whole purpose taken straight from the abstract was merely, "To better understand the implications of predator management on elk populations..." They did the study and they now know that mountain lions are killing a few more elk than they thought.

Now what the news articles and people in this thread are trying to do is to compare the effects of mountain lions and wolves on elk mortality using this study. This study was not intended to do that and so there is large amounts of bias in this comparison. Some examples off the top of my head are that the elk were not evenly distributed between the 29 populations chosen and the wolf and mountain lion populations were not taken into consideration or accounted for.

It is impossible to do a broad study like this without bias, especially when you have findings that you didn't expect or when people try to make conclusions from the data that weren't intended by the study. Completely unexpected results introduce elements that you didn't even know you should have been controlling to prevent bias.

A few interesting things that I think can add perspective to the findings of this study:

1. Population of wolves and mountain lions in Idaho - There are no real accurate estimates of populations of either wolves or mountain lions in the state of Idaho. "Current unofficial estimates put Idaho's wolf population over 1000 animals" according to the Idaho Governors office. The Idaho Fish and Game has never tried to estimate mountain lion populations. Predators are notoriously hard to estimate populations for. Some population estimates can be made through harvest statistics though. In 2016 (the most recent year with both wolf and lion harvest statistics available) there were 267 wolves killed by hunters compared to 629 mountain lions killed by hunters. I will let you guys decide where that puts population levels. (I believe the wolf harvest statistics include trapping, but don't quote me on that as I can't find a for sure yes or no.)

2. Predator dispersal throughout the state of Idaho - There are 99 different game management units in Idaho. In 2016 wolves were killed in 46 of these units. Mountain lions were killed in 80 of these units. 12 units had no predators of either species killed in them. While this obviously doesn't show either animals entire range, it does show that mountain lions are found and killed in many more areas of the state than wolves.

3. The #2 factor for predicting elk mortality in an area (#1 for calves was body size, #1 for adult cow elk was age), was the average size of the wolfpack in the area. This was before snow depths which was #3. This is taken straight from the abstract of the study itself. It wasn't the the lion population in the area, it was the wolf population in the area that had the greatest impact as far as predators on an elk's chance for survival.


Make your own conclusions from that added data, but in my opinion, it shows a couple things. One is that Idaho can't be lumped into one sum. Wolves are not distributed throughout all the places elk live in Idaho, but mountain lions are. The second is that even with this biased comparison (which is completely one way bias I might add), elk mortality by lion and wolf was very similar. Even though mountain lions are found in more places than wolves and arguably have a much larger population than wolves, they still only killed a similar amount of elk as wolves did in this study. I think that tells us that wolves can and will be more detrimental to an elk population than cats.

Not a wolf hater. I kill elk in units with decent wolf populations in Idaho. I'm not here to say "kill them all", but to say they have little to no effect on an elk population as some here all to often try to say (ESPECIALLY in areas with large populations of wolves) is just stupid and plain wrong.

Best post on this thread thus far, in my opinion.

 

[Mike7]

After reading the actual study, I have no qualms with the information presented. For the purposes of this study, there was no sizable bias. Their whole purpose taken straight from the abstract was merely, "To better understand the implications of predator management on elk populations..." They did the study and they now know that mountain lions are killing a few more elk than they thought.

Now what the news articles and people in this thread are trying to do is to compare the effects of mountain lions and wolves on elk mortality using this study. This study was not intended to do that and so there is large amounts of bias in this comparison. Some examples off the top of my head are that the elk were not evenly distributed between the 29 populations chosen and the wolf and mountain lion populations were not taken into consideration or accounted for.

It is impossible to do a broad study like this without bias, especially when you have findings that you didn't expect or when people try to make conclusions from the data that weren't intended by the study. Completely unexpected results introduce elements that you didn't even know you should have been controlling to prevent bias.

A few interesting things that I think can add perspective to the findings of this study:

1. Population of wolves and mountain lions in Idaho - There are no real accurate estimates of populations of either wolves or mountain lions in the state of Idaho. "Current unofficial estimates put Idaho's wolf population over 1000 animals" according to the Idaho Governors office. The Idaho Fish and Game has never tried to estimate mountain lion populations. Predators are notoriously hard to estimate populations for. Some population estimates can be made through harvest statistics though. In 2016 (the most recent year with both wolf and lion harvest statistics available) there were 267 wolves killed by hunters compared to 629 mountain lions killed by hunters. I will let you guys decide where that puts population levels. (I believe the wolf harvest statistics include trapping, but don't quote me on that as I can't find a for sure yes or no.)

2. Predator dispersal throughout the state of Idaho - There are 99 different game management units in Idaho. In 2016 wolves were killed in 46 of these units. Mountain lions were killed in 80 of these units. 12 units had no predators of either species killed in them. While this obviously doesn't show either animals entire range, it does show that mountain lions are found and killed in many more areas of the state than wolves.

3. The #2 factor for predicting elk mortality in an area (#1 for calves was body size, #1 for adult cow elk was age), was the average size of the wolfpack in the area. This was before snow depths which was #3. This is taken straight from the abstract of the study itself. It wasn't the the lion population in the area, it was the wolf population in the area that had the greatest impact as far as predators on an elk's chance for survival.


Make your own conclusions from that added data, but in my opinion, it shows a couple things. One is that Idaho can't be lumped into one sum. Wolves are not distributed throughout all the places elk live in Idaho, but mountain lions are. The second is that even with this biased comparison (which is completely one way bias I might add), elk mortality by lion and wolf was very similar. Even though mountain lions are found in more places than wolves and arguably have a much larger population than wolves, they still only killed a similar amount of elk as wolves did in this study. I think that tells us that wolves can and will be more detrimental to an elk population than cats.

Not a wolf hater. I kill elk in units with decent wolf populations in Idaho. I'm not here to say "kill them all", but to say they have little to no effect on an elk population as some here all to often try to say (ESPECIALLY in areas with large populations of wolves) is just stupid and plain wrong.

Great post. I have to laugh whenever I hear someone tell me that this or that study is the final word or definitively prooves A or B for all wildlife, and I cringe when I hear a biologist say those words. The above post by IdahoHntr is an excellent conclusion I think.

Anecdotally...
I had only seen lion kills of deer prior to wolves being present in the NW, but have found mature elk killed by lions after wolves were around in high numbers (not sure why, maybe coincidental).

Contrary to what someone else said earlier, it seems much easier to blunder upon a wolf kill than a lion kill from what I have seen. Lion kill = relatively undisturbed carcass with neck and chest partially eaten and all of it hidden under a pile of sticks. Wolf kill or kill wolves took over = grass matted down everywhere, pieces of animal spread all over, wolf crap, etc.

In N. ID, the wolves to lions that I have seen on game cameras are 10-1 at least in favor of wolves (not sure how that relates to actual population given that wolves may be more active than cats).

Have had both lions and wolves come into cow elk calls, but only ever see wolves chasing and trailing elk on game cameras.

I don't know where "Buzz" is referring to in N. ID, but there are many, many fewer ATV trails and roads that are open than there were in the past (that is everywhere in the NW, not just N. ID), and if long range hunters are destroying elk somewhere, then it has to be in small areas where that is even possible...because large swaths of N. ID have neither open areas to shoot from or shoot to, and that is assuming the elk are even out during the daytime during the season in the few open areas that are present.

 

[DWBMontana]

Another thing to remember, in their journals, Lewis and Clark wrote that elk were most numerous in the plains area, not found very often in the mountains. Elk were pushed into the mountains by settlement of the west, they have adapted well. Now with the re-introduction of wolves into this environment, they are being forced to adapt once again.

 

[Ross]

This was before snow depths which was #3. This is key to the survival when hopping tree well to tree well and five wolves are chasing you day after day in 6 plus feet of snow eventually your luck ends

 

[Broomd]

Twenty five years ago I hunted the bighorn mnts in Wyo for mule deer. It was remote country.
I found close to two dozen bighorn skulls over a four day period, these were mostly ewes that were all mountain lion kills.

 

[MattB]

We had a similar phenomenon in CA in the mid/late 1990's when pig populations were high (El Nino), and lions were killing more and more deer because pigs were cleaning up their kills and lions were having to move onto the next one much more quickly.

 

[MattB]

This was happening in CA with black bears too, bases on a study in the Mendocino Nat'l forest trying to determine predation impacts on blacktail. And it wasn't 6 bears trying to take over a lion kill, just 1. The researchers did find a bear that a lion killed when the bear tried to take over the lion's kill.

I'd think even a flat earther would be open to considering that scavenging of predator kill sites could increase the rate at which a predator needs to kill to sustain itself.

 

[freebird134]

I wish they would break it down to regions. Lots of micro-climates in Idaho.

They didn't point out how wolves make cats kill more because they do take over cat kills.

Wolf packs also push elk much more in the snow. Making them easier targets for all predators.

The study is publicly funded, do the results should be publicly available. I found the paper as a pdf at the link below. If anyone can’t access it, let me know and I’ll get the paper for you. I’m an ecology professor, so I may have access through my university that others don’t

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jon_Horne/publication/333845733_Effects_of_wolf_pack_size_and_winter_conditions_on_elk_mortality/links/5d28dbac92851cf4407e7ac7/Effects-of-wolf-pack-size-and-winter-conditions-on-elk-mortality.pdf

Regarding your first point, they do break analyses into some coarse regions (fig 1 and table 4). As you’d expect, wolves kill fewer elk in the southern part of Idaho.

Table 4 really highlights to me that the studies results should be taken with a grain of salt. They list as many or more deaths as “unknown” as they do for predators (eg, cows: 39 by wolves, 42 by cougar, AND 109 UNKNOWN!!!). There is a lot of variance in those data that I’d be hesitant to trust. Do, the real conclusion is we don’t know what is killing most cows.

Interestingly, the lead author of the study was my TA as an undergrad at U of I. Small world...




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[freebird134]

After reading the actual study,.....


The #2 factor for predicting elk mortality in an area (#1 for calves was body size, #1 for adult cow elk was age), was the average size of the wolfpack in the area. This was before snow depths which was #3. This is taken straight from the abstract of the study itself. It wasn't the the lion population in the area, it was the wolf population in the area that had the greatest impact as far as predators on an elk's chance for survival.

They didn’t have lion density in the models. See the last sentence of the abstract, as well as parameters estimated in tables (eg, table 3).

So they can’t say lion density didn’t matter. They can’t say wolf density mattered more than lion density. They simply have no casts on lion density, so you can’t say wolf density is more important than lion density.





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[BuzzH]

The study is publicly funded, do the results should be publicly available. I found the paper as a pdf at the link below. If anyone can’t access it, let me know and I’ll get the paper for you. I’m an ecology professor, so I may have access through my university that others don’t

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jon_Horne/publication/333845733_Effects_of_wolf_pack_size_and_winter_conditions_on_elk_mortality/links/5d28dbac92851cf4407e7ac7/Effects-of-wolf-pack-size-and-winter-conditions-on-elk-mortality.pdf

Regarding your first point, they do break analyses into some coarse regions (fig 1 and table 4). As you’d expect, wolves kill fewer elk in the southern part of Idaho.

Table 4 really highlights to me that the studies results should be taken with a grain of salt. They list as many or more deaths as “unknown” as they do for predators (eg, cows: 39 by wolves, 42 by cougar, AND 109 UNKNOWN!!!). There is a lot of variance in those data that I’d be hesitant to trust. Do, the real conclusion is we don’t know what is killing most cows.

Interestingly, the lead author of the study was my TA as an undergrad at U of I. Small world...




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As to the unknowns, they probably have a pretty good idea what killed a lot of them. But, if a researcher isn't very sure they cant draw conclusions that would bias data. If animals are killed and very little evidence is left, they get classified as unknowns.

I know in the Bitterroot study, that found nearly identical results, they also had a lot of unknown mortality. Sometimes, we just cant conclude what happened.

 

[freebird134]

As to the unknowns, they probably have a pretty good idea what killed a lot of them. But, if a researcher isn't very sure they cant draw conclusions that would bias data. If animals are killed and very little evidence is left, they get classified as unknowns.

I know in the Bitterroot study, that found nearly identical results, they also had a lot of unknown mortality. Sometimes, we just cant conclude what happened.

Right. So they could be underestimating or overestimating any specific cause of death.


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[idelkslayer]

1. Population of wolves and mountain lions in Idaho - There are no real accurate estimates of populations of either wolves or mountain lions in the state of Idaho. "Current unofficial estimates put Idaho's wolf population over 1000 animals" according to the Idaho Governors office. The Idaho Fish and Game has never tried to estimate mountain lion populations. Predators are notoriously hard to estimate populations for. Some population estimates can be made through harvest statistics though. In 2016 (the most recent year with both wolf and lion harvest statistics available) there were 267 wolves killed by hunters compared to 629 mountain lions killed by hunters. I will let you guys decide where that puts population levels. (I believe the wolf harvest statistics include trapping, but don't quote me on that as I can't find a for sure yes or no.)

The 267 does include trapping. But also keep in mind that Wildlife Services killed 70 wolves during 2016 as a direct result of livestock depredation. And in February 2016, IDFG killed 20 wolves in the Lolo zone. So total human-caused wolf mortality in 2016 in Idaho was 357.

 

[BuzzH]

Right. So they could be underestimating or overestimating any specific cause of death.


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Very possible, or it could be that there is a very similar distribution of mortality causes within the unknown portion of the study. We don't know, so your guess is no better than my guess.

I contend its better to not "guess" if you don't know for sure, in particular on a 15 year study.