Moose, Sheep, and Goat: Analyzing the Bonus Point System, By Dr. Michael Street

[Justin Crossley]

Application season is here again. And like most years, competition for tags is getting tougher. This article shows how the Bonus Points System works to favor high point holders while giving lower point holders a chance as well.

Moose, Sheep, and Goat: Analyzing the Bonus Point System

 

[robby denning]

Application season is here again. And like most years, competition for tags is getting tougher. This article shows how the Bonus Points System works to favor high point holders while giving lower point holders a chance as well.

Moose, Sheep, and Goat: Analyzing the Bonus Point System

Even though this was based on draw in Colorado I think the bonus point system is still probably the best in trade-offs. Especially if you’re not chasing the very very best tags. But as shown in the article, odds continue to decrease as more people come into the system, at least that’s the way I’m understanding it. Good article Mike


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[street]

Even though this was based on draw in Colorado I think the bonus point system is still probably the best in trade-offs. Especially if you’re not chasing the very very best tags. But as shown in the article, odds continue to decrease as more people come into the system, at least that’s the way I’m understanding it. Good article Mike


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Thanks Robby! The way I see it, these species are like playing the lottery.

 

[PassCreek]

Application season is here again. And like most years, competition for tags is getting tougher. This article shows how the Bonus Points System works to favor high point holders while giving lower point holders a chance as well.

Moose, Sheep, and Goat: Analyzing the Bonus Point System

When Colorado implemented their system, it was supposed to mimic having extra applications in the draw without actually putting in extra applications. The CO draw couldn't handle adding multiple applications per applicant apparently. I was told a mathematician said the CO Bonus Point system was equivalent. After looking at the numbers, is it?

 

[street]

When Colorado implemented their system, it was supposed to mimic having extra applications in the draw without actually putting in extra applications. The CO draw couldn't handle adding multiple applications per applicant apparently. I was told a mathematician said the CO Bonus Point system was equivalent. After looking at the numbers, is it?

That is an interesting piece of historical info!

I would be very hesitant to agree that those two draw systems would be equivalent. It would take some serious analysis to answer that question but at first approximation, those two draw scenarios are fundamentally different probabilistically.

If I find some spare time I will look into it.

 

[CalebClick]

Even though this was based on draw in Colorado I think the bonus point system is still probably the best in trade-offs. Especially if you’re not chasing the very very best tags. But as shown in the article, odds continue to decrease as more people come into the system, at least that’s the way I’m understanding it. Good article Mike


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I think you are correct!

 

[Jordan Budd]

Hey @street I've been thinking about it some more... how do you think this bonus point/weighted system would work in a deer/elk/antelope draw where there are far more tags? Do you think it would scale more proportionally to the bonus points a person had?

I wish I'd have thought of that recording the episode.

 

[street]

Hey @street I've been thinking about it some more... how do you think this bonus point/weighted system would work in a deer/elk/antelope draw where there are far more tags? Do you think it would scale more proportionally to the bonus points a person had?

I wish I'd have thought of that recording the episode.

Jordan - That is a very interesting question. I think your intuition is right, that the odds would scale more proportionally to the bonus points. The biggest reason the data in the article doesn't seem to be as proportional to the bonus points is because of the disproportionate amount of applicants at the lower bonus point counts. If the amount of applicants at each bonus point was uniform, the drawing odds would be directly proportional to the bonus point multiplier.

I think the NV draw system would be the closest data set to investigate to answer your question