Long draw odds calculator

[louisianahunter]

I'm relatively new to hunting and even newer to hunting out west. Been on 2 trips, one successful (but I've started pilling up hogs, white tail and even a few alligators on public land in LA). It's becoming more apparent from reading rokslide and podcasts etc how bad draw odds are going to be and how preference point creep is going to continue. I'm only 29 and finishing training right now so I'm finally getting the chance to spend some $ on points throughout the west (so far just the typical WY, CO). This spring I'm trying to figure out the draw process/odds etc in every state and really managing expectations. I worry that even if I build points for mule deer/elk/antelope in almost most states I'll still have to heavily rely on OTC (while it lasts) and eventually landowner tags (only getting more expensive) to have a hunt even close to every year. Not that I have the money but I would have to apply for moose/goat/sheep/bison in every state to have the chance at drawing just 1 of those ever.

So what are the chances of drawing even elk/mule deer tags in draw states like NM, NV, ID, AZ and UT? Or is it worth it even ever applying for sheep even though I'm only 29? I knew there had to be a way to really map out my expectation in the best way I knew how and it's really helped me figure where I should send not just my $, but manage the reality of expectations for what I'll be able to chase in my life. I figured others would find it helpful as well. Turns out there's a simple formula

chance of ever drawing = 1-(1-n)^p. Where n=chance of draw in decimal (10% is 0.1) and p is over repeated attempts (number of years of applying with that chance of draw).

So just for something to be "most likely I'll draw it at least once in 30 years", it has to be at least around a 3% draw. And that's still not a guarantee. Probability is a bitch. And the results of every coin flip is intendent. Also that's assuming the chance of drawing that tag isn't getting smaller every year (cause of people like me I know). So going forward what I'm doing in states like NM is asking myself "how often do I want to hunt". If the answer is I'm okay with the odds of an elk tag every 10 years and a mule deer tag every 5, then I need to have my last "options" be be around 12.5% and 20% respectively, knowing that every year the units that fit that draw odds will get worse and worse - again, depressing.

Really long winded post but I think this spread sheet I made can really help a lot of people manage their expectations, whether you're 25 and just getting into this or sitting on 20 points in NV elk and wondering if it's worth it to keep applying. Reading posts on here has helped a lot with planning and I feel like I can finally give something back.

 

[louisianahunter]

And yes, I realize I'm part of the problem. South east coast young guy who fell in love with Meateater in his formative years and found a passion for the outdoors and hunting. I can see how accelerated things have gotten with buying points and I can't help but know at least a part of that is my fault.

 

[summs]

It's cool that you have a passion and wanted a formula for odds, but most states already give you this information. It might even be a law (dont quote me on that). But for the hunts I look at, draw odds are clearly listed, along with harvest rates, and most state sights have amount of public land available. Nice to see a passion, but a head's up before you reinvent the wheel. Some states have poor designed F&G sites, but with a little time on any of them or google, you can usually find the answer quickly.

 

[louisianahunter]

It's cool that you have a passion and wanted a formula for odds, but most states already give you this information. It might even be a law (dont quote me on that). But for the hunts I look at, draw odds are clearly listed, along with harvest rates, and most state sights have amount of public land available. Nice to see a passion, but a head's up before you reinvent the wheel. Some states have poor designed F&G sites, but with a little time on any of them or google, you can usually find the answer quickly.

No this is different, it takes that draw odd and extrapolates what your chance of every drawing a tag is. Like if I keep applying for 5% draw over and over, will I every draw? I haven't seen anything like that out there. Sorry if I didn't explain that part well enough.

 

[BigE]

There are more variables to consider such as units you are applying for as some have significant point requirements. If you are trying to hunt for elk, you can go with cow tags for example. Less points required and you get to go. Or move to a target state and get into a higher percentage draw pool.
Your spreadsheet is a start and was worth the exercise but more information on what you want to do and are willing to do for those options can change all the math.

 

[dirtytough]

It’s cool. I think you should color code the percentages. Make it easier to see the trends.

 

[bsnedeker]

If you haven't gotten into the points game yet I think you would be much better off staying out of it entirely. It costs HUNDREDS of dollars to buy points in these states for miniscule odds of drawing a hunt that is actually of better quality than you can get with an OTC or General (easy to draw) tag.

I think you are MUCH better off taking those hundreds of dollars and putting it into some kind of account for safe keeping so you can buy a guided hunt on private land every 5-7 years, and hunt OTC/General every year/every other year to get some more experience.

At this point the NR points game is for suckers in my opinion.

 

[Rifleman86]

If you haven't gotten into the points game yet I think you would be much better off staying out of it entirely. It costs HUNDREDS of dollars to buy points in these states for miniscule odds of drawing a hunt that is actually of better quality than you can get with an OTC or General (easy to draw) tag.

I think you are MUCH better off taking those hundreds of dollars and putting it into some kind of account for safe keeping so you can buy a guided hunt on private land every 5-7 years, and hunt OTC/General every year/every other year to get some more experience.

At this point the NR points game is for suckers in my opinion.

A NR can still easily hunt every year, and will be able to for quite some time IMO.

Maybe not hunting massive bulls, but if you care about meat and the experience, and not about antlers, it’s not going anywhere. There is still plenty of NR opportunities, but yes the days of buying points to get your glory tag is long gone.

I’m waiting for the guys who care about the instagram bulls to quietly move along to their next way to get attention and validation.

 

[louisianahunter]

If you haven't gotten into the points game yet I think you would be much better off staying out of it entirely. It costs HUNDREDS of dollars to buy points in these states for miniscule odds of drawing a hunt that is actually of better quality than you can get with an OTC or General (easy to draw) tag.

I think you are MUCH better off taking those hundreds of dollars and putting it into some kind of account for safe keeping so you can buy a guided hunt on private land every 5-7 years, and hunt OTC/General every year/every other year to get some more experience.

At this point the NR points game is for suckers in my opinion.

Yeah but even those general tags like wy elk and mule deer are taking more and more points every year. So I'm trying to assess what I can expect from applying in a random state like NM. Especially since it's the closest. I could potentially be in an okay mule deer unit every 3 years at the current draw rate and learn it well. That's just an example of how I've found this useful to build into my strategy.

 

[louisianahunter]

A NR can still easily hunt every year, and will be able to for quite some time IMO.

Maybe not hunting massive bulls, but if you care about meat and the experience, and not about antlers, it’s not going anywhere. There is still plenty of NR opportunities, but yes the days of buying points to get your glory tag is long gone.

I’m waiting for the guys who care about the instagram bulls to quietly move along to their next way to get attention and validation.

Yeah definitely realizing NV elk will never happen in my life. But again using this tool I wonder if NV mule deer archery hunts could be something I get into. Could easily have 4 trips like that in my life.

 

[Legend]

I'm relatively new to hunting and even newer to hunting out west. Been on 2 trips, one successful (but I've started pilling up hogs, white tail and even a few alligators on public land in LA). It's becoming more apparent from reading rokslide and podcasts etc how bad draw odds are going to be and how preference point creep is going to continue. I'm only 29 and finishing training right now so I'm finally getting the chance to spend some $ on points throughout the west (so far just the typical WY, CO). This spring I'm trying to figure out the draw process/odds etc in every state and really managing expectations. I worry that even if I build points for mule deer/elk/antelope in almost most states I'll still have to heavily rely on OTC (while it lasts) and eventually landowner tags (only getting more expensive) to have a hunt even close to every year. Not that I have the money but I would have to apply for moose/goat/sheep/bison in every state to have the chance at drawing just 1 of those ever.

So what are the chances of drawing even elk/mule deer tags in draw states like NM, NV, ID, AZ and UT? Or is it worth it even ever applying for sheep even though I'm only 29? I knew there had to be a way to really map out my expectation in the best way I knew how and it's really helped me figure where I should send not just my $, but manage the reality of expectations for what I'll be able to chase in my life. I figured others would find it helpful as well. Turns out there's a simple formula

chance of ever drawing = 1-(1-n)^p. Where n=chance of draw in decimal (10% is 0.1) and p is over repeated attempts (number of years of applying with that chance of draw).

So just for something to be "most likely I'll draw it at least once in 30 years", it has to be at least around a 3% draw. And that's still not a guarantee. Probability is a bitch. And the results of every coin flip is intendent. Also that's assuming the chance of drawing that tag isn't getting smaller every year (cause of people like me I know). So going forward what I'm doing in states like NM is asking myself "how often do I want to hunt". If the answer is I'm okay with the odds of an elk tag every 10 years and a mule deer tag every 5, then I need to have my last "options" be be around 12.5% and 20% respectively, knowing that every year the units that fit that draw odds will get worse and worse - again, depressing.

Really long winded post but I think this spread sheet I made can really help a lot of people manage their expectations, whether you're 25 and just getting into this or sitting on 20 points in NV elk and wondering if it's worth it to keep applying. Reading posts on here has helped a lot with planning and I feel like I can finally give something back.

This is just the tip of the iceberg.

Some states felt the bonus point system wasn't favoring the high point holders enough so the decided to square the points ( ex. MT and NV). And I think south dakota even cubes the points.

I took one of MTs elk units and squared all the points and you end up with over 455,000 resident applications in the draw for 85 tags. And nonresidents can only draw up to 10%. Assuming they apply again next year there will be over 555,000 applications. So if you like those odds Montana will be happy to take your money.

 

[louisianahunter]

This is just the tip of the iceberg.

Some states felt the bonus point system wasn't favoring the high point holders enough so the decided to square the points ( ex. MT and NV). And I think south dakota even cubes the points.

I took one of MTs elk units and squared all the points and you end up with over 455,000 resident applications in the draw for 85 tags. And nonresidents can only draw up to 10%. Assuming they apply again next year there will be over 555,000 applications. So if you like those odds Montana will be happy to take your money.

Oh yeah I'll only ever be looking at their general tag in reality. Though it's a pain in the ass to plan around that state with the changes they've made.

 

[Legend]

Yeah definitely realizing NV elk will never happen in my life. But again using this tool I wonder if NV mule deer archery hunts could be something I get into. Could easily have 4 trips like that in my life.

As for NV I believe it would take a true statistician to calculate draw odds. What they post are simply wrong. My best guess is that you would have to build a model, something like a monte carlo model, to run a lot of scenarios. From the model results you could get a good idea of NV draw odds.

The devil is in the details and each state has a unique draw process. I am sure someone will correct me but here is my high level memory on NV:

All applicants for a given species have their bonus points squared and then all names go into a pool. This will give you millions of applications for the entire state. Those applications then randomly sorted (this is the draw process). The one on top gets their first choice unit. It then goes down the list and looks at everyone's 1st, 2nd, etc. choice. If the qouta of tags for the units in all of their choices has been filled then they are unsuccessful in the draw. There is no simple way to calculate draw odds for NV.

But they will accept nonresident money and sometimes you just have to play the lottery.

 

[louisianahunter]

As for NV I believe it would take a true statistician to calculate draw odds. What they post are simply wrong. My best guess is that you would have to build a model, something like a monte carlo model, to run a lot of scenarios. From the model results you could get a good idea of NV draw odds.

The devil is in the details and each state has a unique draw process. I am sure someone will correct me but here is my high level memory on NV:

All applicants for a given species have their bonus points squared and then all names go into a pool. This will give you millions of applications for the entire state. Those applications then randomly sorted (this is the draw process). The one on top gets their first choice unit. It then goes down the list and looks at everyone's 1st, 2nd, etc. choice. If the qouta of tags for the units in all of their choices has been filled then they are unsuccessful in the draw. There is no simple way to calculate draw odds for NV.

But they will accept nonresident money and sometimes you just have to play the lottery.

Yeah gohunt for better or worse has basically run these numbers in computer models that can run it thousands of times to come up with the best prediction. Considering how many people put the same first choice it's difficult to come up with a model but theirs seems to be the best.

 

[wapitibob]

No this is different, it takes that draw odd and extrapolates what your chance of every drawing a tag is. Like if I keep applying for 5% draw over and over, will I every draw? I haven't seen anything like that out there. Sorry if I didn't explain that part well enough.

Anybody applying for a hunt that has 5% odds doesn't want to hunt.

Gohunt doesn't predict anything, they run the simulation on last years data to give you a "better" view of what your odds were.

 

[dieselchessy]

You can’t predict odds. All you can do is look at what happened last year and guess what might happen next year.
Calculators don’t work if fed bad data. Crap in = Crap out.

I’ve been applying in Nevada for 10+ years at $220+ a year. Apply for everything. No tag yet, but I do put in for some better tags most years. The elk tag is $1300-ish. If I draw it will be a $3500 elk tag. LOL
Odds just get worse every year.

I could have just bought a landowner tag somewhere and been time and money ahead.

I put in for several states and the story is the same. There is a reason the influencers are swamping Colorado. Cause they can get OTC tags. Wolves and crowding will probably burn that bridge soon enough.

You notice Meat Eater hunts lots of private and outfitted stuff these days?

 

[louisianahunter]

You can’t predict odds. All you can do is look at what happened last year and guess what might happen next year.
Calculators don’t work if fed bad data. Crap in = Crap out.

I’ve been applying in Nevada for 10+ years at $220+ a year. Apply for everything. No tag yet, but I do put in for some better tags most years. The elk tag is $1300-ish. If I draw it will be a $3500 elk tag. LOL
Odds just get worse every year.

I could have just bought a landowner tag somewhere and been time and money ahead.

I put in for several states and the story is the same. There is a reason the influencers are swamping Colorado. Cause they can get OTC tags. Wolves and crowding will probably burn that bridge soon enough.

You notice Meat Eater hunts lots of private and outfitted stuff these days?

Yeah and stuff that doesn't require draw like spear fishing and such. I'm guessing he burned all his points seasons ago in states he could actually draw. Similarly randy Newbergs show is mostly other people's tags he's going hunting with.

Anyways yeah I guess people mostly missed the point of this. I was trying to point out that a lot of these tags aren't worth it. I think if the average hunter realized what I'm trying to demonstrate, there'd be less people building points in NV or trying to draw those goats in CO etc. On the other side you can also use it to see how often you can draw a general elk tag in Idaho if you want.

 

[louisianahunter]

Anybody applying for a hunt that has 5% odds doesn't want to hunt.

Gohunt doesn't predict anything, they run the simulation on last years data to give you a "better" view of what your odds were.

Yes I know this, believe me I've watched every video and read every article on these topics. These are all tools that have to be applied right and know their limitations. Statistics is where propaganda meets math.

 

[dieselchessy]

Yeah and stuff that doesn't require draw like spear fishing and such. I'm guessing he burned all his points seasons ago in states he could actually draw. Similarly randy Newbergs show is mostly other people's tags he's going hunting with.

Anyways yeah I guess people mostly missed the point of this. I was trying to point out that a lot of these tags aren't worth it. I think if the average hunter realized what I'm trying to demonstrate, there'd be less people building points in NV or trying to draw those goats in CO etc. On the other side you can also use it to see how often you can draw a general elk tag in Idaho if you want.

You buy Idaho general elk tags in a messed up random computer selected line. It’s kind of a draw I guess, but no way to calculate those odds.

I didn’t read your post as taking realistic look at the situation. I read it as you trying to math your way into some tags.
You can do that, but the tags tend to come with stipulations a guy has to work within.
Sounds like I misinterpreted your point.

 

[louisianahunter]

You buy Idaho general elk tags in a messed up random computer selected line. It’s kind of a draw I guess, but no way to calculate those odds.

I didn’t read your post as taking realistic look at the situation. I read it as you trying to math your way into some tags.
You can do that, but the tags tend to come with stipulations a guy has to work within.
Sounds like I misinterpreted your point.

Sorry I'm talking about the Idaho "controlled hunts" - those are random, just depends how many people filled out the app for that tag.
The OTC I guess is what residents call the general tag, that obviously there's no way to crunch the numbers.

But yeah this can also be used to limit expectations on hunts you are applying for, like I mentioned NM mule deer. I can apply for "okay" units and kind of gauge how frequently I'll pull.