Long draw odds calculator

[louisianahunter]

Trying to math my way into limiting my expectations, and not apply for tags I'll never draw.

 

[louisianahunter]

I guess I was really off on how people might get some use from this.

 

[roadrunner]

Don't waste your time with trying to cipher odds for NM. The printed draw results merely show the distribution of tags given for each choice category. You can't predict the the order in which each choice for a hunt code appears on an application or when that application will even show up in the sequence after the shuffle.

 

[Jethro]

Sometimes you just have to look at the tag as a lottery ticket. I’ve drawn a 6% odds tag 2x in 3 years. Somebody has to draw and the only way to have a chance is to apply.

 

[Legend]

I guess I was really off on how people might get some use from this.

I like your aproach. It is a quantified way to confirm what is a pure gamble and what is a reasonable chance.

 

[hunt1up]

I guess I was really off on how people might get some use from this.

It's a fine idea, but there's a lot of factors that vary from state to state and tag to tag that will influence the math you put forth. For one, an increase/decrease in tag quota will instantly change odds year to year.

In WY, the odds can swing wildly when just a few higher point holders throw in for a draw. Let's say there's 10 NR tags and a tag took 4 points. Next year if a few guys group apply with 6 points the odds are shot to hell and guys at 4 points are out of luck.

In AZ, the bonus pass(the point where a tag is guaranteed to the highest point holders) can move based on applicants as well.

Colorado, well in Colorado you either have the points to draw or you don't. This number moves every year with applicants and point creep.

Your table might work best for applications that are purely random draw, largely consistent in quota and applicant numbers year to year, or very high demand hunts where the odds stay generally low.

 

[Beendare]

Edit; Its true, you can calc out the hunts you have such low odds for that its a waste of $$$ to apply. Many hunters have not figured that out yet. A guy can scan the Nevada archery elk odds and see that even a guy like me that has 20 points has less than a 1% chance of drawing a decent tag- it gets worse every year not better with the squared bonus points rule.

About 20 yrs ago, When I realized what my odds of drawing a non res sheep tag in some states was, I stopped giving them the app money.


#1 be glad you have what you have in La. Many areas in the states are not nearly as game rich

#2. join TopRut or Go hunt and search the odds charts…and allocate wisely.

 

[madtinker]

I’ve spent some time building a draw odds calculator for New Mexico. I also started with a spreadsheet adapted from the full draw report. After a lot of thought, the best I’ve come up with is essentially a Monte Carlo simulation of the draw. As someone said above, you don’t know what order everyone else put their choices. At first this stumped me, but since we do get to know how first, second and third choices are allocated, we can use that to distribute the choices of our simulated populations of hunters. Individually the selected hunt choices might not be realistic, but if you simulate a population of thousands of hunters, if the distribution of choices is true to life, you can get an idea of what your odds will be.

I wrote my Monte Carlo script in MatLab, but you could use Python or any other scripting language to do the same.

The big takeaway I got after running lots of simulations is that in new mexico your overall odds of getting a tag are determined by your third choice. So now I put my dream hunt as first choice, where I actually want to go as second choice, and a last-ditch hunt as third choice. If your first and second choice are about equal draw odds, you’ll only get your first choice, because if your first choice is unavailable your second choice will be too.

If overall odds are what you’re after, you can still use the Monte Carlo method. But also keep in mind that tag numbers change, so extrapolating too far in the future won’t be accurate. Ditto with changing hunter numbers. But considering the cost of just applying, I don’t blame you for trying to get the best picture you can of odds.

 

[ladogg411]

I think the original equation is correct. I used to have one set up also regarding risk of two+ independent events occurring. As I was worried about too many tags in a single year.

I shit canned all that and just apply for almost everything quality now - almost everywhere.

I've drawn 2 trophy tags with overlapping dates twice. Just had to scramble to make both work.

Study return policies carefully.

I don't think my family of 3 applies for anything with odds over 3%. Most well under 1%. And we seem to stay busy every year.

Just too much work to try to quantify odds or even add up what I'm spending.

 

[Basecamphunt]

I went off the deep end on draw odds too. I feel you can save your money, invest and use that money to do a Canada hunt instead of applying for the big 3 tags in all western states for 20 years. I apply for mediocre tags in all western states and have had some great hunts over the years. Usually get one out of state tag each year sometimes two. Use the spreadsheet you have, build points where it makes sense and try to draw one out of state hubt a year or every other year as your time allows. If you’re already buying a license in a state to apply you might as well swing for the fences on some of the best hunts. You might get lucky, somebody had to. Happy hunting

 

[Brent]

Don't waste your time with trying to cipher odds for NM. The printed draw results merely show the distribution of tags given for each choice category. You can't predict the the order in which each choice for a hunt code appears on an application or when that application will even show up in the sequence after the shuffle.

You may be missing an important piece here.

Although, getting the exact odds is quite difficult due to the way NM distributes to tag choices, you can calculate the worst case predictive odds by dividing the total tags available within an applicant pool by the total number of applicants of the three choices in that applicant pool for the desired hunt code.

As a NR applicant, I base my choices off this simple calculation and I stay busy in NM.

 

[Laramie]

Trying to math my way into limiting my expectations, and not apply for tags I'll never draw.

Love your ambition but you are wasting your time imo. Way too many variables to predict any better than what is currently offered. Between fluctuating game populations, changing regulations/quotas, and the every growing hunter numbers, it is a futile endeavor to predict anything other than a general guess from year to year. That said, if you crack some kind of code, you would be better off saving if for yourself and not posting it on the www.

 

[roadrunner]

You may be missing an important piece here.

Although, getting the exact odds is quite difficult due to the way NM distributes to tag choices, you can calculate the worst case predictive odds by dividing the total tags available within an applicant pool by the total number of applicants of the three choices in that applicant pool for the desired hunt code.

As a NR applicant, I base my choices off this simple calculation and I stay busy in NM.

What that calculation shows is the percentage of how many 1st, 2nd, and 3rd choices received tags, or, how many applicants received a tag combing the 3 choices together as all 3 choices are in competition with one another.

Ex: 100 tags. 1000 1st choice, 500 2nd choice, 200 3rd choice. The total vying for those 100 tags are 1700, or 1/170 people would get a tag. If 65 1st choice are awarded a tag, 20 2nd choice are awarded a tag, and 15 3rd choice awarded, you have a 1/15 chance of getting it on your 1st choice, a 1/25 chance on your second, and a 1/13 chance of it being your 3rd.

This scenario will change the next year and the year after that.

 

[Brent]

What that calculation shows is the percentage of how many 1st, 2nd, and 3rd choices received tags, or, how many applicants received a tag combing the 3 choices together as all 3 choices are in competition with one another.

Ex: 100 tags. 1000 1st choice, 500 2nd choice, 200 3rd choice. The total vying for those 100 tags are 1700, or 1/170 people would get a tag. If 65 1st choice are awarded a tag, 20 2nd choice are awarded a tag, and 15 3rd choice awarded, you have a 1/15 chance of getting it on your 1st choice, a 1/25 chance on your second, and a 1/13 chance of it being your 3rd.

This scenario will change the next year and the year after that.

The difficult thing to account for is the guy that drew it as his second or third choice before the next guy drew it as their first choice. This is the wrinkle in the NM system that makes prediction difficult.

I absolutely agree. The long game is difficult to calculate, if not impossible, when considering annual variability.

 

[CMF]

I think the original equation is correct. I used to have one set up also regarding risk of two+ independent events occurring. As I was worried about too many tags in a single year. I've done this once the first year I started applying for multiple hunts for multiple family members. I think I came up with like %90 chance of drawing 1 tag, 48% chance of drawing 2...

Study return policies carefully. This. Getting tags takes strategy. If your plan A draws out later than plan B, your plan B can be getting a tag you can return and waiting for results of plan A.

Just too much work to try to quantify odds or even add up what I'm spending. I've came to similar conclusion, at first I had columns for odds and cost for each hunt and pp we applied for, but just too much, I'm at 242 lines since 2020 and I just put state, person, date, hunt choice now.

@louisianahunter
I like what you got there.
I think another useful calculation would be to take multiple state apps for a species and see the results out to 20-30 years.
Say three sheep applications, %0.5, %0.8, and %1.8%. What are the odds I draw a tag in 30 years?
I figure my cumulative odds will make it worth applying, I just started applying for sheep in last couple years(NM) and I'm adding a couple more states this year. I'm 38.

There are a few states that are just not worth it mathematically, I think it was Oregon sheep I looked at the other day, there were over 600 apps for 1 tag, and the cost to apply would be $188. If you evaluate this like poker odds, the tag would have to be worth $112,800.00 to justify applying. And based on your spreadsheet you'd only have 3% chance after 30 years, On the other hand, that money invested would be almost $30k in 30 years.

I think if you're playing the game in multiple states for multiple species, it will be hard to run out of opportunities unless you're just looking for trophy hunts.

 

[CMF]

Yeah but even those general tags like wy elk and mule deer are taking more and more points every year. So I'm trying to assess what I can expect from applying in a random state like NM. Especially since it's the closest. I could potentially be in an okay mule deer unit every 3 years at the current draw rate and learn it well. That's just an example of how I've found this useful to build into my strategy.

Consider hunting deer and elk in the same unit as well and you can build your knowledge of the areas you hunt even more.

 

[Neckbone]

I was in your position a few years ago.. its very overwhelming looking at all the western states and all the species within. At some point you just have to start applying for tags, racking up points, and getting out in the field. Ive decided to play the long game in a few states (7-10 year out decent changes of draw) and the short game in others (think montana general deer/be the first in line for Idaho/OTC elk colorado). Ive also thrown my name in the NM hat without success. Usually the limiting factor is how much time off of work you can get to actually go hunting. Currently I am a 1-1.5 week trip annually. If I were you I would find easy to draw tags for the short term and get your butt in the mountains. You will learn a lot and after a few years could be positioning yourself for a limited entry tag at the same time.

 

[displacedtexan]

No this is different, it takes that draw odd and extrapolates what your chance of every drawing a tag is. Like if I keep applying for 5% draw over and over, will I every draw? I haven't seen anything like that out there. Sorry if I didn't explain that part well enough.

How does it account for people who didn't used to apply, people who quit applying, and tag allocation changes?

 

[louisianahunter]

How does it account for people who didn't used to apply, people who quit applying, and tag allocation changes?

Been hashed out a while ago. Basically it's just a rough odds calculator for over years. For myself and others I think it can be helpful to mathematically show why it's not worth applying for some tags. It's helped me focus my budget building points.

 

[pokethebear]

Long Draw odds in Arizona for elk. Nonresident Elk Draw Odds in Western States (AZ), Trophy Tags are just 100 Years Out