Is the current high tag demand a bubble that will crash in the next 10 years?

[Macintosh]

Not to single out any one reply, but there's a lot of observations in this thread that are anecdotal such as "I see lots of 20 somethings getting into the sport" or "I'm still going to be elk hunting at 75." Those are all valid observations, but there's actual peer reviewed research out there that that shows those things to simply not be true. This is from 2016, and I'd love to see how the models have played out 9 years later, but almost every age cohort of hunters has shown a steep decline at age 70.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/disappearance-hunting-fishing-loren-chase/

Some of the the slipping away of the Baby Boomer generation is going to be offset with more people hunting more states, less tags available for a variety of reasons, population growth in the West, etc etc. I'm not an R3 advocate whatsoever, so don't take it that way, but there's most likely not a 1:1 replacement happening.

Again. Yes but also no. Nationally thats what the data shows. And the age cohort thing is also part of the demographic info earlier in this thread. But also look at the double digit increases in licenses sold per state also posted in this thread. We get nowhere in this conversation unless both the national as well as the state and regional trends are acknowledged. Its perfectly clear that whatever the reason—perhaps rapid increase in population in many western states, media playing up western hunting, etc—the national trend is simply not whats happening if your view is only confined to specific states.

From my earlier post looking at linked data on hunting licenses sold per state:

Looking at the CHANGE during the period from 2015 thru 2019,

• the western states combined increased license sales by 12.8% (CA -1.5%, CO 6.3%, Or 27%, Id 14%, MT -1%, UT 17.7%, AZ 55%, WA -.8%, WY -1.1%, AK 16%, NM 9.8%, NV 6.4%). Unlike other areas this was a steady increase each year.

 

[Idaboy]

This is the new norm,unless there is mass exodus from social media (including rokslide) that's where all the marketing is, we are all part of the algorithm. I like learning on rokslide and I do watch the occasional YouTube hunting video, so I am guilty too. But that is unfortunately how it's evolving

 

[CMF]

I passed a guy that was 81 on a trail in New Mexico 2 miles deep. He had a shovel and a fanny pack, headed to dig for some kind of rocks. I hope I'm in as good a shape then. We also saw a group of people clearing trails in the wilderness with handsaws, they were all over 70. The only other person we saw on that hunt was trail running and was surely over 60.

 

[alexnelon]

I passed a guy that was 81 on a trail in New Mexico 2 miles deep. He had a shovel and a fanny pack, headed to dig for some kind of rocks. I hope I'm in as good a shape then. We also saw a group of people clearing trails in the wilderness with handsaws, they were all over 70. The only other person we saw on that hunt was trail running and was surely over 60.

Yeah 80%+ of the guys I see in the back country are over 60. They're out there in full force and are still getting after it.

The question this whole thread is asking is how many of the elder woodsmen have more than ten years of hustle left in the tank before they hang their hat.

 

[Caseknife]

I would guess a pretty high percentage of those you already see in the back country. I am 63 and my main hunting partner is 64 and he actually gets a kick out of out hiking the young guys and is quite impressed when one is actually able to keep up with him. I would not be surprised if we both are out there for another 20+ years. We like our wild game meat.

 

[Moosehunter]

The thing is that looking at demographics of hunters in general, there are no where near enough younger people to replace the ones aging out regardless of finances or free time.

And so far, statistically, people don't start hunting after they retire.

I hear this all the time
But is it real?
In my area the young hunters and "competition" if u will. Is insane.

 

[Beendare]

Not to single out any one reply, but there's a lot of observations in this thread that are anecdotal such as "I see lots of 20 somethings getting into the sport" or "I'm still going to be elk hunting at 75." Those are all valid observations, but there's actual peer reviewed research out there that that shows those things to simply not be true.

....

I didn't say the comment about the 20 year olds....I just don't know that many so I can't say whether thats true or not.

Yes, my info on older guys is anecdotal...and accurate. I too think you would be shocked at the stud guys still hunting in their 60's and 70's. I know an awful lot of them. There is no doubt ALL of the older age range guys I know hunt smarter and not as hard as in their 30's and 40's.

Factor in part of that "Smarter" ^ is applying in good units in multiple states. What does it take to screw up the odds for a young guy? 50,000 or so 60 and 70 year old with a lot of points in multiple states would probably do it.

It's all relative. Point creep continues in many states. 15-20 years for a decent elk tag....and climbing every year. Even if it does back off in 5-10 years...it's not going to be 5 years and, "Here's your primo elk tag". My odds in Nevada [elk] is less than one percent for the top 5 units ...and thats with 21 points.

I dunno. I haven't looked at any peer reviewed research. These days I tend to trust my gut over much of the hack science out there.....BTW, thats what we old guys do- trust our gut as it's been very good to us over the years.

 

[bowhuntercoop]

I hear this all the time
But is it real?
In my area the young hunters and "competition" if u will. Is insane.

Yaaa the south is over run with young hunters and fisherman. Have yet to see a boat launch empty on a weekend year round on the Harris chain of lakes.

I won’t even turkey hunt public land in the south, and our 5 month long deer season means 5 months of constantly trying to avoid other hunters on public.

Not a chance hunter numbers are declining in the South east.

 

[Beendare]

The question this whole thread is asking is how many of the elder woodsmen have more than ten years of hustle left in the tank before they hang their hat.

As I said, it's a lot...and 60 is the new 40. I think about my grandpa and man was he beat up at 60. My dad stayed in pretty good shape at 60 but nothing like myself or the other guys I know.

My one buddy my age just climbed Annapura [spelling?] and another that regularly runs the stairs out of Castlerock.

I think there are many guys like myself that use the upcoming hunt seasons as a goal to keep in shape.

I don't doubt there is a high % that start dropping out in their late 60s and early 70's but regrettably its not going to be enough to drop the points needed for the relatively small amount of good tags in the western states.

 

[PredatoronthePrairie]

I don't doubt there is a high % that start dropping out in their late 60s and early 70's but regrettably its not going to be enough to drop the points needed for the relatively small amount of good tags in the western states.

I guess that's the great part about hunting. What you might not consider a good tag. Could be an amazing experience for someone else.

 

[Customweld]

I guess that's the great part about hunting. What you might not consider a good tag. Could be an amazing experience for someone else.

Damn straight! I'll take an Idaho otc elk tag every year, have the time of my life and feel like I'm the luckiest guy on Earth while I'm out there!

 

[Crowmangler]

Damn straight! I'll take an Idaho otc elk tag every year, have the time of my life and feel like I'm the luckiest guy on Earth while I'm out there!

Amen to this. If someone really wants to go hunt an elk, you have a really good chance to get a tag at least every other year in one of a handful of states. I'd rather hunt a "good" unit every other year than a "great" unit every 10 years. You still have to put in the effort, find them & make a lethal shot. As far as I'm concerned going elk hunting is always better than not going