Is the current high tag demand a bubble that will crash in the next 10 years?

[FredH]

When you keep adding more wolves and other predators into the mix, there will be less tags available….because there will be less ungulates to hunt. This equates to continued high demand.

This. Yes there are less tags available than there were in 1992 for all involved.

 

[FredH]

The number of nonres applications, resident populations, and OTC tags switching to controlled will all continue to increase, and one day residents in western states will need to travel out-of-state to hunt whitetails if they wish to hunt every year.

The number of applicants MAY increase but the number of tags available to non residents has been severely reduced in many states. If you are lucky enough to draw a bull elk tag in Wyoming by the time you buy a conservation stamp and whatever other fees they screw us with you are getting pretty close to $1000. for a tag with a 14% success rate.

 

[FredH]

NM governor's tag this year is very much an outlier. I ran some numbers out of curiosity earlier this week and for the most part, auction sheep tags are just moving with inflation. An outlier here and there with a particular tag where there's a known giant ram, sure. But inflation since 2007 has been 50%.

It's sort of tangential to this conversation: the prices of outfitted hunts that have gone the most crazy in price are the ones most likely sought by Boomers to check off their bucket list. Stone sheep and RMBH's to finish out a grand slam, guided trophy moose hunts, ranch elk hunts, etc. There's still a lot of affordable stuff out there that isn't on the average Boomer bucket list.

I know I've commented about this topic on other threads, but I do think there is something to demand slowing over the next 10 years with Baby Boomers dropping out. The peak year of births in that generation was 1957, which would obviously make that person 68 years old today. The youngest of that generation will turn 61 this year. We have hard data to show that generation makes up around a third of hunters in the United States. I don't think it's going to suddenly get easier to draw tags in 10 years, but the 2020/2021 Covid peak was probably the high water mark for demand.

Thats funny Gen Z math. Boomers have already killed their Elk, Mule deer, big Whitetail and Antelope. What Boomers are doing now is introducing their Grandkids to the sport and being unable to draw tags. Strange how you MilXGenZ types always act like everything is the Boomers fault. It's like they are all super human super natural do badders. Take a look in the mirror. Game departments are now run by DEI jerks who were more than happy to introduce wolves and have us pay for it. Loving raising prices for tags and rolling in money grifted through point fees and application fees. Your generation did that. Own it.

 

[OMB]

Thats funny Gen Z math. Boomers have already killed their Elk, Mule deer, big Whitetail and Antelope. What Boomers are doing now is introducing their Grandkids to the sport and being unable to draw tags. Strange how you MilXGenZ types always act like everything is the Boomers fault. It's like they are all super human super natural do badders. Take a look in the mirror. Game departments are now run by DEI jerks who were more than happy to introduce wolves and have us pay for it. Loving raising prices for tags and rolling in money grifted through point fees and application fees. Your generation did that. Own it.

Wolf reintroduction kicked off in most western and Great Lakes states in the early to mid 1990's, when the people in charge of those game departments were in their 40's or 50's. I got a C in college calculus, but if my math works out, that wasn't Gen X or Millennials running that. Do you think the 30 year old DEI jerks just appeared out of thin air? Who educated them to think the way that they do?

I don't know what hunting camps you are spending your time in, but I don't think Baby Boomers trying to interest their grandkids in hunting is what took Stone Sheep hunt prices from $40k to $100k in 5 years. It's a verifiable fact that Baby Boomers are 1/3 of all hunters, and that generation is now retiring with a huge amount of wealth and spending that wealth on vacations and experiences. It's nothing to take personally, it just is what it is.

 

[Jethro]

If you are lucky enough to draw a bull elk tag in Wyoming by the time you buy a conservation stamp and whatever other fees they screw us with you are getting pretty close to $1000. for a tag with a 14% success rate.

$1000, good deal for an elk hunt vacation.

 

[OMB]

Tag prices for non residents have gone through the roof already. Have you been paying attention? Many states have also reduced the number of tags available to non residents. Are you happy yet?

Tag prices, especially on the resident side of all 50 states, has not kept up with inflation by a long shot.

You're right, there probably is a limit to how hard states can soak non-residents, but we're not even close to getting there if you want to see demand levels similar to 30 years ago.

 

[PLhunter]

No, wealth and leisure is increasing and scarce objects/possessions will have increasing demand.

This has been something I’ve noticed over the last several years, The expendable income of hunters seems to have skyrocketed. Guys buying a dozen suppressors, several thousands of dollars in guns and optics, and they are absolutely everywhere. Myself included, I spend more over the last several years on hunting than I had in a lifetime.

 

[Bubblehide]

$1000, good deal for an elk hunt vacation.

Every single time I went elk hunting, I wouldn't even dream about calling it a vacation. But then, I've been hunting public lands.

 

[blacktail434]

Wolf reintroduction kicked off in most western and Great Lakes states in the early to mid 1990's, when the people in charge of those game departments were in their 40's or 50's. I got a C in college calculus, but if my math works out, that wasn't Gen X or Millennials running that. Do you think the 30 year old DEI jerks just appeared out of thin air? Who educated them to think the way that they do?

I don't know what hunting camps you are spending your time in, but I don't think Baby Boomers trying to interest their grandkids in hunting is what took Stone Sheep hunt prices from $40k to $100k in 5 years. It's a verifiable fact that Baby Boomers are 1/3 of all hunters, and that generation is now retiring with a huge amount of wealth and spending that wealth on vacations and experiences. It's nothing to take personally, it just is what it is.

And, what does the math work out to for implementing these money grab point schemes we’re all so fond of? Asking for a friend….

 

[NDGuy]

Barring a huge downturn in the economy, war, black swan I don't see how it would ever get easier/better.

Too many eyes on tags now, point system has just created a black hole of waiting. What started 10 years ago for me buying points in 6 states thinking I'd be able to hunt them all is far changed. I'm now looking at WY, UT, MT limited entry tags being OIL tags.

 

[Beendare]

Multi-multi-millionaires aren’t getting younger, just saying.

There are more young millionaires and Billionaires than ever in history.....thankfully most of those don't hunt.

 

[blacktail434]

Still holding out hope, that being a bit on the younger side, I’ll be able to hunt a few really good tags before I’m past prime. In the meantime, just continue to work the “strategic plan” with the points situation and hunt OTC/general tags every year. Cast a wide net.

 

[Jethro]

Every single time I went elk hunting, I wouldn't even dream about calling it a vacation. But then, I've been hunting public lands.

Me too, last 15 years. With tags anywhere from 600-2000$. 10-12 day hunts. Some of them were great, some were good, all were better than being at work. To me, that’s vacation.

 

[Rich M]

Still holding out hope, that being a bit on the younger side, I’ll be able to hunt a few really good tags before I’m past prime. In the meantime, just continue to work the “strategic plan” with the points situation and hunt OTC/general tags every year. Cast a wide net.

You'll be fine. Lots of drama and "end of the world" type attitudes. Go hunt, have fun, enjoy. It is never gonna be better than it is right now.

 

[JeffRaines]

You'll be fine. Lots of drama and "end of the world" type attitudes. Go hunt, have fun, enjoy. It is never gonna be better than it is right now.

Right now is the "good ol days" for a lot of us.

 

[Bubblehide]

Me too, last 15 years. With tags anywhere from 600-2000$. 10-12 day hunts. Some of them were great, some were good, all were better than being at work. To me, that’s vacation.

I come back from hunting trips physically exhausted, but mentally refreshed and ready to go back to work. Simply put, hunting is my reset switch. A vacation is something very different, to me.

 

[Trimbandit]

It's an interesting thought that interest in hunting might decrease over the years. Covid put a LOT more people in the woods than there were previously. Here in Utah our OTC elk tags were available for weeks. After 2020 they were gone in a day or two.
I bet those folks new to the sport will mostly stick it out. That's all they've ever known. Though I am sure some that got into hunting and have not yet harvested an animal will end up losing interest.

 

[Predator_SD]

Do you think the 30 year old DEI jerks just appeared out of thin air? Who educated them to think the way that they do?

Their phones

 

[Predator_SD]

This has been something I’ve noticed over the last several years, The expendable income of hunters seems to have skyrocketed. Guys buying a dozen suppressors, several thousands of dollars in guns and optics, and they are absolutely everywhere. Myself included, I spend more over the last several years on hunting than I had in a lifetime.

Most of those guys you speak of don’t have the money you think they do. But they do have some serious credit card debt.

 

[Slickhill]

My family started hunting out of state in the middle 1950’s. We are still making the pilgrimage every year, same place on national forest. Everyone in camp talks about how there’s less hunters than when they started going, from my Grandfather who started the tradition, to my dad and his brother and friends who started going in the 70’s, I even remember more camps when I started going in 2001.
The forest service road we camp on used to have a camp in every pullout and some of them were big camps with 8-10 guys when I was a kid. Now there’s usually 3-4 camps with no more than 2-3 guys each on average.

Dad says the opener used to sound like a gun battle and they’d see a dozen or more guys out walking throughout the day. I remember truckloads of Texans and Californians cruising the roads, the Cali guys would always ask if I’d seen any elk close to the roads.
In the 80’s they talk about seeing 200 does in a day and few or no bucks, a forkie was in mortal danger. Back in the 50’s and 60’s they’d kill 15-20 bucks in our camp when the limit was 3.

Now the roads I remember seeing the guys sneaking down in pickups and jeeps are closed. Deer haven’t been OtC in a long time and take 3 points to draw now, but you can kill a nice representative 3 or 4 point buck or at least have an opportunity if you put a little effort in. And we generally kill elk most years, usually back in the nasty places but it’s always been that way. And most guys still don’t like to hike way back off the road.

I talk to guys around home who used to go back 20-30 years ago and they all say they miss it but between fuel and tags and the cost of living they can’t make the trip like they used to. Younger guys who want to go but either won’t on their own or say they can’t afford it. When my dad worked civil service on our local military base when I was little there were several groups of a dozen or more guys who would take vacation time together and go west to make a big camp and hunt. I know there were two camps that took all the available leave for 2nd season and another for 3rd, none of them go anymore.

All that to say that I suppose things have never stopped changing and they probably won’t. We sure miss 1 or 0 point deer tags and we’re thankful for OTC bull tags as long as they last. If it weren’t for the internet and available data I don’t think that we’d think there was more demand. And no I won’t say where our spot is at.