Historically Low Alaska Sheep Harvest

[flanman85]

Well, I will be the first to say that I'm extremely surprised by the BOG's vote to shut down 19C to nonresident hunting. I'm not sure anyone saw that coming. I particularly don't agree with it and would've rather seen NR limited by draw or state-managed concession. But something had to happen and I guess the BOG saw this as a good first step. The guides in the area strongly opposed NR limits at the meeting 3 years ago. A bit of a lesson in sacrificing the good for the perfect and coming out with nothing. It will be interesting if this precedent will carry to other struggling units.

It wasn’t the BOG right? It was the subsistence board which did it.


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[Chumsnagger]

Yes, it was BOG.

 

[Cynoscion]

Well, I just thought I was going on my first sheep hunt in 2024! Sucks to be me I guess but I don’t really see what this will solve If harvest restrictions are already in place and being adhered to but what do I know?

 

[Homer]

I’m surprised to see them limit just NR but something had to be done and I think it was a good move on their part. Much better than switching it to a draw for everyone like they did for most of unit 13. I’m curious if changes like this will affect any outfitters decisions of allowing clients to book hunts 3-4 years out.

 

[smg]

You must be looking at different numbers than I am. Preliminary numbers I'm looking at are showing lower harvest in most major units as we all expected. Overall harvest right around the 400 number that Bambistew called.

View attachment 462349

*disclaimer, these may not be final numbers, but they are from an ADF&G source. We are now sitting at HALF the pre-2020 typical harvest.

Some long time producers such as 20A and 19C have numbers that are tragic. TMA was a total bust.

We won't have good success rate numbers until all of the laggards turn in their harvest reports, but it does appear that people are self regulating after last season and pressure is trending down. So at least that is good. I know I ended up sitting this one out after a conversation with the pilot.

Yk

It looks as if 25% of the decrease (from 800 to 400) is with just 19C? Is there any other units that make up such a large portion of the decrease in harvest from 2019 to 2022?

 

[diamond10x]

wolves are taken opportunistically by guided hunters now they won’t be there to do that. It would have been nice to see grizzly bear open starting august 10th in 19c. The wolves have the caribou about beat.

This is where I’m at with it. They have now effectively removed all the restraints on predators for sheep.

I wonder what it would look like if they took away the guide requirement for grizzly bears in sheep units?

 

[diamond10x]

Anybody know when they will publish harvest reports for 2022?

 

[Gadjet]

I'm guessing that we'll see Alaskan dall hunts shoot north of 50 grand real soon. And Canadian hunts will stay a ways above that.

 

[ColeyG]

I think it is going to be really hard for many guides to still be able to maintain an 80% success rate on sheep hunts. As such, hunters are going to have a hard time swallowing a bigger bill with a smaller chance of success.

It is going to continue to get harder for guys on the ground with no ability to scout extensively from the air to take rams.

Obviously the cub crowd has enjoyed the benefits of scouting and access for a long time, but it is feeling more and more like you have to fly and scout to stack the odds in your favor.

In years past I've felt pretty confident that I could hike a little farther and work a little harder than some of the competition and squeak out a ram from some overlooked nook or cranny. There were enough animals that if you looked long enough and hard enough, you could almost count on finding one eventually. I don't feel like that is the case in a lot of places any more.

 

[fatbacks]

I am super happy about this decision. About the only instance i can think of where they actually voted in favor of resident preference.

I think we need to get to a point of limiting the amount of guides in each GUA for sheep. About the only thing the feds do right up here is limit the amount of guides on Preserve and Refuge land.

 

[Htm84]

This is where I’m at with it. They have now effectively removed all the restraints on predators for sheep.

I wonder what it would look like if they took away the guide requirement for grizzly bears in sheep units?

It wouldn’t do anything. Every study I've ever read points to low predation in general with eagles being the major predators on sheep. Weather patterns seem to kill sheep more than anything. Brown bears kill next to none.

 

[WalterH]

I am super happy about this decision. About the only instance i can think of where they actually voted in favor of resident preference.

I think we need to get to a point of limiting the amount of guides in each GUA for sheep. About the only thing the feds do right up here is limit the amount of guides on Preserve and Refuge land.

And limit the # of hunters and sheep those guides can take. In some cases guides in the Brooks are taking 10+ rams in a season from their areas.

 

[william schmaltz]

It looks as if 25% of the decrease (from 800 to 400) is with just 19C? Is there any other units that make up such a large portion of the decrease in harvest from 2019 to 2022?View attachment 533874

Here's the 20A figure. Not quite as bad, but trending there.


TMA went from 54 rams taken in 2019 to 8 in 2021. Likely less this year since tags were decreased by 2/3 from 2021 to 2022.
DCUA went from 47 to 19 in the same time frame.

Here's the population trend by range shared last fall in the working group meeting:

 

[Bighorn80]

wolves are taken opportunistically by guided hunters now they won’t be there to do that. It would have been nice to see grizzly bear open starting august 10th in 19c. The wolves have the caribou about beat.

What are the harvest numbers of wolves taken opportunistically by guided hunters in 19C the last 5 years? My guess is 0. I agree the wolves and bears need thinned out in that area, but using it as a reason to keep guides taking sheep hunters there doesnt hold water IMO.

 

[IBen]

What are the harvest numbers of wolves taken opportunistically by guided hunters in 19C the last 5 years? My guess is 0. I agree the wolves and bears need thinned out in that area, but using it as a reason to keep guides taking sheep hunters there doesnt hold water IMO.

Its not zero and Im not using it as an argument. Just saying that the numbers of predators will be treading in the wrong direction with less hunters. Opening grizzly bear for guides that can also take black bear and wolves for cheap would move the predator number in the right direction.

 

[ColeyG]

I am super happy about this decision. About the only instance i can think of where they actually voted in favor of resident preference.

I think we need to get to a point of limiting the amount of guides in each GUA for sheep. About the only thing the feds do right up here is limit the amount of guides on Preserve and Refuge land.

I'll preface my opinion with a note, I did not guide a sheep hunt in 19C last year nor did I have plans to guide in 19C this year but I guided a sheep hunt last year and plan to guide one this year as well. While I don't wholly agree with the particular change BOG made, I'm happy to see them do SOMETHING in an attempt to help sheep.

First, I will eat my own words and say I'm shocked that BOG made the change that they did. Never saw them implementing a non resident exclusion with no changes for residents aside from the 19C youth season closing (if I heard right). For the majority that don't own, can't afford or don't want to use planes this isn't helping you. It's actually going to hurt you when the outfits from 19C jump units and guide in other areas that are predominantly easier to access for the average Joe. There will however be a few sky hunters who'll be tickled to know those pesky guides won't be around to call them in for spotting during the season.

What I would have liked to see changed would be the following:

For non residents statewide, I would rather see an outfitter quota implemented and mandatory publishing of harvest success within 30 days of close of the season. By my judgement this could help cure the two big problems, overbooking and shooting squeakers. If outfit XYZ is only allowed to take 2-3 rams each year, those become more valuable and hopefully makes a guide second guess giving the go ahead. Mandating statistic publishing will keep outfitters from booking 17 hunters and taking 2 sheep (that's a real ratio).

For residents, I'd like to see the following implemented:

Shoot a 5 year old full curl, wait 3 years to hunt sheep again.
Shoot a 6 year old full curl, wait 2 years to hunt sheep again.
Shoot a 7 year old full curl, wait 1 year to hunt again.
Shoot an +8 year old ram, hunt each year.
Shoot a running average age of +10 year old rams and you get a medal. **You know who you are.**

Good stuff and agreed.

I remember being shocked by some of the avg age statistics that ADFG shared in their presentation a while back. I think it was around half of the rams taken last year were 7 or younger? That is a disturbing trend.

The Brooks seemed to have kicked out quite a few, or a higher percentage at least, of older rams the last few years.

 

[Bighorn80]

Grizz, black bear, wolverines and wolves get taken in there every year. More than you'd guess but I 100% agree that it isn't enough to make a huge difference, that would take structured predator control.

Thank you- this is a more accurate way of wording my thoughts on it. I was just suggesting the idea of guided sheep hunters (non res.) incidentally taking predators while on a sheep hunt is low enough not to be considered in this context.
For that matter there are an awful lot of resident sheep hunters that will let a bear or wolf walk away because they dont want to "deal" with it...

 

[IBen]

Thank you- this is a more accurate way of wording my thoughts on it. I was just suggesting the idea of guided sheep hunters (non res.) incidentally taking predators while on a sheep hunt is low enough not to be considered in this context.
For that matter there are an awful lot of resident sheep hunters that will let a bear or wolf walk away because they dont want to "deal" with it...

no one pays a guide in 19c for black bears, wolves, wolverines. They are all taken incidentally. And grizzly bear doesnt open till sept 1 and moose till sept 5 so Id say around half are taken by sheep hunters

 

[ColeyG]

I am curious what others might propose to solve the problem of too many young rams dying under the full curl restriction.

I looked back through my notes from the ADFG meeting and based on the numbers shared there, approximately 47% of the rams killed last year were 7 or younger. I'd be willing to bet this has been the case for the last 2-3 years at least if not longer.

This is obviously contrary to one of the stated goals for and intended effects of the full curl requirement, which is to take animals that are at the end of their useful and likely life, making no significant impact at the population level in years to come.

Kyle's matrix above seems like a pretty good proposal to me. A good starting point at least.

 

[AlaskaMark]

I'm just back from the BOG meeting in Soldotna, and I gave testimony for RHAK telling the board that it would be shameful to impose any restrictions on residents at all after decades of allowing unlimited nonres sheep hunting, closing the subsistence hunt in RY20 due to "biological concerns," and continuing to allow unlimited nonres opportunity last year on a known severely declining populaiton that led to 90% nonres sheep harvest.

I also wrote an op-ed in the Anchorage Daily News about this that came out the week of the meeting: https://www.adn.com/opinions/2023/03/13/opinion-alaskas-nonsensical-dall-sheep-management-decisions/

The main takeaway from this meeting as far as sheep is that finally FC selective harvest mgmt is being questioned. And ADFG did not really come across well imo in their consistent position that FC mgmt is sustainable under all conditions. I asked them, well you said there are currently some 300 sheep in Unit 23 in NW AK, that you advised the board to close down in 2015. The stated reason they wanted it closed was because that is the farthest northwest range of Dall sheep in NA and they didn't believe it could support any more harvests. Unit 23 is still closed for any state sheep hunts. But If FC mgmt is always sustainable, why haven't you opened Unit 23 up again? How does that make sense? The answer: "Good point."

There was a proposal to eliminate any sheep hunts on Kenai Peninsula, due to such low sheep populations. There was also one for restrictions there. The Dept stated they saw 1 FC ram during the last survey. They said there are other areas in the state where there are distinct smaller populations where only 2 or 3 legal rams are taken every year. FC mgmt is working, we can't take every legal ram. No need to close the Kenai or impose any restrictions.

So when they were asked during deliberations on prop 204 to close 19C, how low does the sheep population have to get in 19C before they support restrictions or closures?, the answer the Dept gave was "We don't know, we don't have an answer to that. " That's cuz there is no number too low according to FC mgmt theory.

Over all these years, RHAK has put in proposals to limit nonres sheep hunters with a limited allocation in 19C. We started years ago with 50 permits, then as sheep further declined we went to 30, then 20, and in our last proposal, 10 permits. APHA & guides opposed any limits on their clients across the board. No draw permits ever (unlses we have an exclusive concession) cuz they don't provide stability to a guide business. All these years, I've told them, so you're gonna be fine when it closes down for everyone? And the answer I got was that would be better than draw permits, cuz when it comes back again they go back to no limits. It's just crazy. All this other bs, oh we can't limit nonres cuz that would mean less money to the Dept, less income to guides. So this is somehow better for the Dept and guides?

There are very few legal rams left in 19C, and in other areas of the state as well. We have been killing evermore 7 & 8 year-olds, sub-legal take last year by guided and unguided sheep hunters was around 13% of total harvests, with guided sheep hunters accounting for nearly 40% of the sublegal take. We don't really account for wounding loss we know happens.

The guides who testified at the meeting in opposition to a closure stated: "If we don't take these legal rams, they will just die on the mountain this winter." Really? Most 7 and 8 year-old rams die every winter? How are we missing the intrinsic and biological value of more 12-year-old rams out on the landscape? And what killing so many of the younger cohorts can lead to?

It never had to come to this. But I'm glad the board finally voted for the sheep and resident hunters.