Drug Cartel on Public Land

[Dustin the wind]

I have friends that grow it in their closet's and spare bedrooms. This hysteria will all be a thing of the past soon. On a side note, I have hunted all over the Oregon coast range and not run into any of it. Hunted very close to private land a lot of time as well.

 

[MattB]

The guy on Rinella’s podcast said as much. Did you listen to that or read his books?

I've never listened to a podcast, so no. But what you are describing doesn't make sense economically. There is too much product in the market as is and pricing has plummeted as a result. Over the longer term, the net impact if that will drive a reduction in illicit production.

 

[Dos Perros]

I've never listened to a podcast, so no. But what you are describing doesn't make sense economically. There is too much product in the market as is and pricing has plummeted as a result. Over the longer term, the net impact if that will drive a reduction in illicit production.

Perhaps some research is in order for you:

https://www.amazon.com/Hidden-War-Operations-Reclaiming-Wildlands/dp/1946267619

 

[MattB]

Perhaps some research is in order for you:

https://www.amazon.com/Hidden-War-Operations-Reclaiming-Wildlands/dp/1946267619

Perhaps you shouldn't believe everything you read or hear on the internet?

While the book in question was fairly recently published, it can't take into account current market conditions which are what I am referencing.

 

[Dos Perros]

Perhaps you shouldn't believe everything you read or hear on the internet?

While the book in question was fairly recently published, it can't take into account current market conditions which are what I am referencing.

Where in the world did I reference anything as internet sourced material? I did mention that a published author who is an expert in his field was on a recent podcast. I think you should check it out. Or bury your head in the sand. Whichever, I don't really care.

 

[MeatBuck]

The cartel grows out in cali have dropped off big time, law enforcement flys and is really on it with google earth. Cartels tend to grow on land managed by the state that does not allow hunting, allows them to not worry about folks off trail since its "against the law" to go off trail in many of those places. Be safe, carry a sidearm and as far as man traps...its unlikely you'll encounter anything like that with the price if cannabis at an all time low..its a numbers game anyway for those guys.

Don't keep up on your cannabis prices huh?
It's like any crop, prices go up after they bottom out.
Also black market prices are much different than the legally regulated prices.
Lastly when somethings worth less, you need more of it to make that $.

 

[MattB]

Where in the world did I reference anything as internet sourced material? I did mention that a published author who is an expert in his field was on a recent podcast. I think you should check it out. Or bury your head in the sand. Whichever, I don't really care.

Did you dial up the podcast on you land line?

I don't think you appreciate how drastically legalization has impacted markets and how things that were the case 1 and 2 years ago are no longer the case. Mind you, I am basing my perspective on talking with people who live in the Emerald Triangle, in communities whose economies have become heavily reliant on pot, whose neighbors/customers are growers and hence have direct insight into current market dynamics, and who have been impacted by cartel grows - not reading a book or listening to a podcast.

An alternate hypothesis is that perhaps they are too close to the situation and simply lack the sort of balanced perspective they could form if they lived in Kansas?

 

[MattB]

Don't keep up on your cannabis prices huh?
It's like any crop, prices go up after they bottom out.
Also black market prices are much different than the legally regulated prices.
Lastly when somethings worth less, you need more of it to make that $.

Prices don't go lower after they bottom out? Huh.

Supply and demand dictates pricing, and a very interesting dynamic has occurred in the illicit market. Lots of growers cannot shift to the legal market due to regulatory constraints (Mendo in particular) so the illicit market has become flooded. Folks with mortgages or no alternatives may be forced to keep growing and hope for a price rebound which will put a floor on supply, but that doesn't change the fact that much of the profit potential has been erased from that segment of the market and that will reduce production (and I think particularly on public land) in the near term.

This isn't purely speculative either. This shift has already caused a massive correction in land prices in parts of Mendocino county. A friend has a peice of property listed up there and the market value is about 60% of what it was 3 years ago.

 

[MeatBuck]

Here's the bottom line imo, it's here, it's there, it's everywhere and it ain't goin away. It will be grown legally and illegally. It will be bought and sold legally and illegally. And it will be imported and exported legally and illegally. It will be used for medicinal purposes as well as recreational purposes. And one day if we're lucky it will help you and I both in the recovery of our own mental and physical illness or disease without stigma or fear of ruthless Mexican cartels.

It's like anything unknown, once we figure it out, there will be nothing to fear. We're just not there yet.

 

[jspradley]

Here's the bottom line imo, it's here, it's there, it's everywhere and it ain't goin away. It will be grown legally and illegally. It will be bought and sold legally and illegally. And it will be imported and exported legally and illegally. It will be used for medicinal purposes as well as recreational purposes. And one day if we're lucky it will help you and I both in the recovery of our own mental and physical illness or disease without stigma or fear of ruthless Mexican cartels.

It's like anything unknown, once we figure it out, there will be nothing to fear. We're just not there yet.

Yup, I have to wonder what things would have been like had the internet been around when alcohol prohibition was repealed.

 

[MeatBuck]

Prices don't go lower after they bottom out? Huh.

Supply and demand dictates pricing, and a very interesting dynamic has occurred in the illicit market. Lots of growers cannot shift to the legal market due to regulatory constraints (Mendo in particular) so the illicit market has become flooded. Folks with mortgages or no alternatives may be forced to keep growing and hope for a price rebound which will put a floor on supply, but that doesn't change the fact that much of the profit potential has been erased from that segment of the market and that will reduce production (and I think particularly on public land) in the near term.

This isn't purely speculative either. This shift has already caused a massive correction in land prices in parts of Mendocino county. A friend has a peice of property listed up there and the market value is about 60% of what it was 3 years ago.

The pieces of land in mendo that aren't worth anything are the ones that aren't worth growing pot on or don't have potable water/proper sewage and power. Many of the worthless properties are too close to methhead neighbors or require expensive dirt work and tree removal just to access. Then there's the cost of running pg&e lines in before building a home or what have you.

The price of "illicit" pot doesn't control the price of land. That's blasphemous.

Perhaps people who can't sell pot in today's market are being forced to sell their land and the more desperate they become for money the lower the prices go but I don't see any other direct correlation between the two

 

[Dos Perros]

Did you dial up the podcast on you land line?

I don't think you appreciate how drastically legalization has impacted markets and how things that were the case 1 and 2 years ago are no longer the case. Mind you, I am basing my perspective on talking with people who live in the Emerald Triangle, in communities whose economies have become heavily reliant on pot, whose neighbors/customers are growers and hence have direct insight into current market dynamics, and who have been impacted by cartel grows - not reading a book or listening to a podcast.

An alternate hypothesis is that perhaps they are too close to the situation and simply lack the sort of balanced perspective they could form if they lived in Kansas?

I definitely have zero appreciation, as I am neither a user, grower, distributor, retailer, etc. I have no idea and couldn't hardly give two shits. But I do appreciate an expert's perspective on the situation. However, I now don't recommend you spend any time researching further, because I'm quite certain you won't learn anything as you clearly already know it all. Take it easy.

 

[MeatBuck]

MattB... Maybe it's as simple as your mendo buddies grow shitty dope?

Thinking they need to get into the extraction game, maybe make hash or oil with the old dope their sitting on?

 

[MattB]

4/8/19 Nat Geo Article on illegal grows on public land:

"In 2018, the number of new sites seemed to decrease slightly. The Forest Service cleaned more sites then it raided, which may be because of cannabis legalization in California (on January 1, 2018)."

Illegal marijuana growers are poisoning public land—and these people are trying to stop it

Despite changing marijuana laws, illegal grow sites threaten protected land in California. These experts are trying to stop it.

www.nationalgeographic.com

 

[Azone]

Yawn.....a bunch of guys who have a habbit of being pigs and trashing places are loosing their ass after investing their time and money in an illegal/gray area market.....the world keeps spinning.
The illegal market will always be relevant till it's legal everywhere, yeah the days of growing a hundred pounds of grass and making over six figures are gone but there is still demand for a product. Who wants to pay the 30 percent tax from a state sanctioned outfit when you can call the guy down the street and get your stuff 30 to 40 dollars cheaper? So what, a bunch of stoners gotta go get a job and pay taxes, big f'n whoop. Until you can kill all the illegal demand there will always be a black market and assholes on public ground trashing places poisoning animals and birds and damming streams into reservoirs and dumping insecticides, fungicides and fertilizers into that water that absolutely destroy the natural environment. Sorry for the rant but I've seen firsthand what these slobs do on forest land and they can go take a flyin leap off a cliff as far as I'm concerned.