Do you really understand Nevada Draw Odds?

[robby denning]

Do you really understand NV draw odds?

In year’s past, draw odds and application strategy for Nevada has been somewhat confusing. The only information that NDOW has provided is the number of first choice applicants and the number of permits (i.e. 1000 people put in for 10 tags), but they have a draw system where applicants can select up to five hunt choices and every choice is considered before
moving to additional applicants. In theory, someone could draw their 2nd, 3rd, or even 5th choice. My question was always "what does that do to draw odds?" You can see that the odds are not simply 10% for the example given.

Last year, goHUNT tackled the complex system and did something that I hadn't seen done before. They were able to obtain the necessary information and develop a model that simulates the draw and produces accurate draw odds, taking into consideration all the complexities of the Nevada draw. This was super info, I followed their advice and drew a permit that I may not have otherwise.

Honestly, Nevada’s draw is still a little confusing (and I'm even just below complete nerd status when it comes to western draw odds). So I invited Trail Kreitzer, goHunt's Research Manager & Gear Expert, onto this thread to answer some real-world questions regarding draw odds for a few of you guys to help everyone better understand the odds/apps.

This is a real treat and it might just open your eyes on how to order your choices. This is not intended to be a thread to calculate everyone's personal draw odds as that could be overwhelming for Trail, but I'm sure he'll give us some real-world examples. Follow along (you can subscribe at "Thread Tools" top of this post and see if you really understand draw odds.) If you're not already a goHUNT Insider member, you might consider it after this thread, just see gohunt.com if interested.

I'll go first....

What if I was considering this scenario:

Non-resident, 9 points, first choice is early muzzleloader deer Area 6 (so all subunits except 65) but because it's better draw odds, should I put that choice before the low-odds unit 221 late rifle? Or just put it first choice? In other words, I don't want to drop my odds significantly for that muzz tag by applying for 221 late rifle, but 221 late rifle would be my dream hunt.
For other choices, I'd consider hunting the Sheldon 33 rifle hunt, early 14 muzz, and late 114/115 muzz, so how should I order my app?

 

[Nomad]

Last year, goHUNT tackled the complex system and did something that I hadn't seen done before. They were able to obtain the necessary information

I had read that a while back. I assume all they had to do was file a FOI request.

At any rate, it sounds like Nevada has the same process as New Mexico (re: every choice is considered before moving to additional applicants.) I did not understand this simple concept last year. I drew a tag, but I completely botched my choice orders and basically took myself out of contention for the higher quality tag(s) that I really wanted.

I may not draw squat this year, but I understand the process a lot better.

I've resisted subscribing to this type of service as I'm trying to KISS on my western draw philosophy. Maybe they'll change my mind.

 

[trail@goHunt]

Thanks for giving us the opportunity to highlight our product and I'm more than happy to help answer questions about the draw process, strategy, or about our goHUNT Insider Membership. So, diving right in..I'll give you some thoughts and ideas about the scenario you posted. Above and beyond that, if members have questions about the draw I can defiantly answer those too.

For those that may not know, Nevada takes the number of bonus points you have and squares them. They then conduct a random draw, so even with very few points you have some chance of drawing and no tags are set aside for max point holders. Obviously, the more points you have..the better your odds. So with 9 pts, (9x9=81 + 1 for this years application) you'll go into the draw with 82 chances.

It is also important to understand that you get five hunt choices and as you said they consider all of them before moving to the next applicant. Your first two choices should be filled with the hunts that you desire most regardless of your point level or the popularity of the hunt choice. So if 221 late is your dream hunt, it should be your first choice. After your first two “dream” choices are filled in, then you must determine if your intentions are to hold out for only the best of hunts or if you want to try to draw perhaps a lesser permit. If those other hunts will provide you the type of hunt you are looking for and you'd be more than happy to have any one of them then you can list them as choice 3 to 5 (best hunt/lower odds to good hunt/better odds) So using the hunts you've suggested and the Insider draw odds I would advise you to select; 221 late rifle, 114/115 late muzz, 33 late rifle, 14 early muzz, and unit 6 early muzz.

I might add that using the Insider odds, I can see there are 40 different hunts that a nonresident has at least a 50% chance of drawing in the 9 and 10 point level that you could explore and list as your 3 through 5 choices...Hope that helps!

 

[robby denning]

It does but the question I get asked that I can't answer is if I move that 6 muzz choice from fifth to first or second, does that change the odds of drawing it?

Another way of asking is say 6 muzz is 20% odds in the Insider, does that mean 20% for any choice level?


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[VANDAL]

This is great, thanks Robby for initiating this post and thanks Trail for spending the time in answering our questions. Somewhat embarrassing I've invested 8 yrs and over $1k in applications without understanding the NV system. It appears my previous choice strategy is almost opposite of what I should do. I have a few other questions but will wait until Robby's last question is answered as it might change my question.
Thanks

I have


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[trail@goHunt]

So, the quick answer is that it does not increase your chances of drawing that muzzy hunt if you move it from choice 5 up to choice 2 or 1 and the reason why is because they consider all five hunt choices trying to award a permit in order from 1 to 5 before moving to the next applicant. So whether that hunt was your 2nd choice or your 5th, if there are tags available when they consider your application you will be awarded that permit. The potential issue with putting lesser hunts as your 1st and 2nd choice is that you are essentially wasting the possibility of drawing a better tag. You never know when you are going to be the lucky guy, one of the first few off the pile, and if that's the case you would want the best hunt you can draw. In regards to our odds, we simulated the exact draw thousands of times and our odds represent your chances at drawing a permit at your point level at all choice levels. Does that make sense? It is definitely not the easiest draw system to wrap your head around.

 

[robby denning]

Trail, I think so. I've always worried that listing a tough-to-draw tag first lowered my odds of drawing tags at choice 2-5 so several years ago I moved those choices up and drew two tags in three years (I still have points cause I turned the tags back after not scouting up bucks I wanted- and early enough someone else could get them).

Sounds like I just drew no matter the choice level according to your example. I think it's sinking in.

I do notice that you guys typically predict lower odds than some of your competitors. Not doubting that it's true.

Vandal can chime in with his question, I'm good. Thanks!


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[VANDAL]

So my questions are along the same lines (hunt choice ranking) and let's keep with the 9 pt / 82 chances example.

I've read that in NV the "82 chances" place you in 82 separate draws in which you will be generated random numbers. So you will draw 82 different numbers, and your lowest number will be used in the draw. The lowest numbers wins the tag.

So if your hunt choices maintain the same draw probabilities (not dependent on choice ranking) ...are they working in numerical order the numbers people drew? So they start with the person who drew #1, and they get their first choice, then #2, 3, etc. Once a hunt quota is met on that persons (or number) first choice, they move to their 2nd choice. This occurs until all the unit draw quotas are met?

Hopefully that makes sense. I'm thinking now I was confused because my mindset was people are drawing tags instead of people drawing a number that will place them in a line ranking to get a tag.

Thanks
Corey


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[Travis Bertrand]

Awesome thread and great explanation of our system. I've put in many of phone calls to sci in Fallon understanding our complex system.

 

[Travis Bertrand]

So my questions are along the same lines (hunt choice ranking) and let's keep with the 9 pt / 82 chances example.

I've read that in NV the "82 chances" place you in 82 separate draws in which you will be generated random numbers. So you will draw 82 different numbers, and your lowest number will be used in the draw. The lowest numbers wins the tag.

So if your hunt choices maintain the same draw probabilities (not dependent on choice ranking) ...are they working in numerical order the numbers people drew? So they start with the person who drew #1, and they get their first choice, then #2, 3, etc. Once a hunt quota is met on that persons (or number) first choice, they move to their 2nd choice. This occurs until all the unit draw quotas are met?

Hopefully that makes sense. I'm thinking now I was confused because my mindset was people are drawing tags instead of people drawing a number that will place them in a line ranking to get a tag.

Thanks
Corey


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That is correct, they look at number 1, then 2 and so on.

 

[Billinsd]

Thanks for giving us the opportunity to highlight our product and I'm more than happy to help answer questions about the draw process, strategy, or about our goHUNT Insider Membership. So, diving right in..I'll give you some thoughts and ideas about the scenario you posted. Above and beyond that, if members have questions about the draw I can defiantly answer those too.

For those that may not know, Nevada takes the number of bonus points you have and squares them. They then conduct a random draw, so even with very few points you have some chance of drawing and no tags are set aside for max point holders. Obviously, the more points you have..the better your odds. So with 9 pts, (9x9=81 + 1 for this years application) you'll go into the draw with 82 chances.

It is also important to understand that you get five hunt choices and as you said they consider all of them before moving to the next applicant. Your first two choices should be filled with the hunts that you desire most regardless of your point level or the popularity of the hunt choice. So if 221 late is your dream hunt, it should be your first choice. After your first two “dream” choices are filled in, then you must determine if your intentions are to hold out for only the best of hunts or if you want to try to draw perhaps a lesser permit. If those other hunts will provide you the type of hunt you are looking for and you'd be more than happy to have any one of them then you can list them as choice 3 to 5 (best hunt/lower odds to good hunt/better odds) So using the hunts you've suggested and the Insider draw odds I would advise you to select; 221 late rifle, 114/115 late muzz, 33 late rifle, 14 early muzz, and unit 6 early muzz.

I might add that using the Insider odds, I can see there are 40 different hunts that a nonresident has at least a 50% chance of drawing in the 9 and 10 point level that you could explore and list as your 3 through 5 choices...Hope that helps!

Great explanation!!! This is how I understand it too. This is how they have been doing for at least the last 15 years, right?

 

[Nomad]

I've read that in NV the "82 chances" place you in 82 separate draws in which you will be generated random numbers. So you will draw 82 different numbers, and your lowest number will be used in the draw. The lowest numbers wins the tag.

Interesting... out of curiosity, who are the eggheads that develop and implement the methodology?

 

[Billinsd]

I might add that using the Insider odds, I can see there are 40 different hunts that a nonresident has at least a 50% chance of drawing in the 9 and 10 point level that you could explore and list as your 3 through 5 choices...Hope that helps!

That is extremely useful!!

 

[trail@goHunt]

Interesting... out of curiosity, who are the eggheads that develop and implement the methodology?

I'm not entirely sure who came up with the idea. It's interesting to me that pretty much every state does it somewhat differently.

 

[trail@goHunt]

Great explanation!!! This is how I understand it too. This is how they have been doing for at least the last 15 years, right?

To my knowledge this has been their method for the past 15 plus years.

 

[Nomad]

I'm not entirely sure who came up with the idea. It's interesting to me that pretty much every state does it somewhat differently.

Who actually crunches the numbers? I'd be sorta surprised if it's in-house... A State University would make sense.

 

[trail@goHunt]

So my questions are along the same lines (hunt choice ranking) and let's keep with the 9 pt / 82 chances example.

I've read that in NV the "82 chances" place you in 82 separate draws in which you will be generated random numbers. So you will draw 82 different numbers, and your lowest number will be used in the draw. The lowest numbers wins the tag.

So if your hunt choices maintain the same draw probabilities (not dependent on choice ranking) ...are they working in numerical order the numbers people drew? So they start with the person who drew #1, and they get their first choice, then #2, 3, etc. Once a hunt quota is met on that persons (or number) first choice, they move to their 2nd choice. This occurs until all the unit draw quotas are met?

Hopefully that makes sense. I'm thinking now I was confused because my mindset was people are drawing tags instead of people drawing a number that will place them in a line ranking to get a tag.

Thanks
Corey


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Absolutely makes sense and you are spot on. They will take the 82 "chances" and randomly generate a number for each chance or point. Those randomly generated numbers are attached to your application. They start will the lowest generated numbers and work through those applicants choices.

 

[trail@goHunt]

Who actually crunches the numbers? I'd be sorta surprised if it's in-house... A State University would make sense.

The draw is administered by a private entity. System Consultants, Wildlife Administrative Services Office (WASO) administers Nevada's hunt application program through their office in Fallon.

 

[toprut]

So my questions are along the same lines (hunt choice ranking) and let's keep with the 9 pt / 82 chances example.

I've read that in NV the "82 chances" place you in 82 separate draws in which you will be generated random numbers. So you will draw 82 different numbers, and your lowest number will be used in the draw. The lowest numbers wins the tag.

So if your hunt choices maintain the same draw probabilities (not dependent on choice ranking) ...are they working in numerical order the numbers people drew? So they start with the person who drew #1, and they get their first choice, then #2, 3, etc. Once a hunt quota is met on that persons (or number) first choice, they move to their 2nd choice. This occurs until all the unit draw quotas are met?

Hopefully that makes sense. I'm thinking now I was confused because my mindset was people are drawing tags instead of people drawing a number that will place them in a line ranking to get a tag.

Thanks
Corey


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Regarding choice order and the impact it has on a hunt's odds, in general you can reliably estimate that with some simple math. For example, let's say you have 5 choices:

Choice 1, 10% odds
Choice 2, 15% odds
Choice 3, 20% odds
Choice 4, 25% odds
Choice 5, 30% odds

The first thing to note is that your application as a whole has the same odds of being drawn as the highest draw odds hunt in your list - in this case 30%. This is true if you have them ordered the way we do above, or if you flip the order moving the current choice 5 up to choice 1.

So in the list of choices above, how do you figure out what your chances are at each point level?

Starting at the top, the choice 1 odds are always whatever they are listed at. So in this case 10%. From there, you do some simple subtraction to figure out the rest. Your choice 2 odds would be:

15% (choice 2 odds) - 10% (choice 1 odds) = 5% (odds you will actually draw your second choice)

Now you have a new 2nd choice draw odd of 5%, and you will use that value in your math as you progress down the list of choices.

You can use this same logic all the way down the list to choice 5. So, in order from top to bottom:

Choice 1 = 10%
Choice 2 = [original choice2 odds - choice1 odds, or 15 - 10] = 5%
Choice 3 = [original choice3 odds - (choice1 + new choice2 odds), or 20 - (10 + 5)] = 5%
Choice 4 = [original choice4 odds - (choice1 + new choice2 + new choice3 odds), or 25 - (10 + 5 + 5)] = 5%
Choice 5 = [original choice5 odds - (choice1 + new choice2 + new choice3 + new choice4 odds), or 30 - (10 + 5 + 5 + 5)] = 5%

So in the end, actuals:
Choice 1, 10% odds
Choice 2, 5% odds
Choice 3, 5% odds
Choice 4, 5% odds
Choice 5, 5% odds

Sum up the total, you get the 30% for the app as a whole.

So actual draw odds at a specific choice level are completely dependent on how you order your choices. Like has already been stated, do hardest to easiest and you'll have a chance at every hunt in your list with no negative effect on your overall chances on the application.

 

[robby denning]

Regarding choice order and the impact it has on a hunt's odds, in general you can reliably figure that out with some simple math. For example, let's say you have 5 choices:

Choice 1, 10% odds
Choice 2, 15% odds
Choice 3, 20% odds
Choice 4, 25% odds
Choice 5, 30% odds

The first thing to note is that your application as a whole has the same odds of being drawn as the highest draw odds hunt in your list - in this case 30%. This is true if you have them ordered the way we do above, or if you flip the order moving the current choice 5 up to choice 1.

So in the list of choices above, how do you figure out what your chances are at each point level?

Starting at the top, the choice 1 odds are always whatever they are listed at. So in this case 10%. From there, you do some simple subtraction to figure out the rest. Your choice 2 odds would be:

15% (choice 2 odds) - 10% (choice 1 odds) = 5% (odds you will actually draw your second choice)

Now you have a new 2nd choice draw odd of 5%, and you will use that value in your math as you progress down the list of choices.

You can use this same logic all the way down the list to choice 5. So, in order from top to bottom:

Choice 1 = 10%
Choice 2 = [original choice2 odds - choice1 odds, or 15 - 10] = 5%
Choice 3 = [original choice3 odds - (choice1 + new choice2 odds), or 20 - (10 + 5)] = 5%
Choice 4 = [original choice4 odds - (choice1 + new choice2 + new choice3 odds), or 25 - (10 + 5 + 5)] = 5%
Choice 5 = [original choice5 odds - (choice1 + new choice2 + new choice3 + new choice4 odds), or 30 - (10 + 5 + 5 + 5)] = 5%

So in the end, actuals:
Choice 1, 10% odds
Choice 2, 5% odds
Choice 3, 5% odds
Choice 4, 5% odds
Choice 5, 5% odds

Sum up the total, you get the 30% for the app as a whole.

So actual draw odds at a specific choice level are completely dependent on how you order your choices. Like has already been stated, do hardest to easiest and you'll have a chance at every hunt in your list with no negative effect on your overall chances on the application.

Thanks toprut,

Trail, is this right?