Do you really understand Nevada Draw Odds?

[ChukarUp]

Trail, keep me honest here...

What makes Nevada tough to handicap is that no one knows anyone's second through fifth choices. Take this scenario in general terms...

100 people put in for hunt "A" as their first choice. There is only 1 tag in hunt "A". Odds are 1% (1/100), right?

Hunt "B" only has one hunter select it as his first choice. There is also only 1 tag available in hunt "B". The way NDOW would show this in the stats is a 100% chance of being drawn. One first choice applicant, 1 tag.

The problem with this is that everyone that chose hunt "A" as their first choice, may have also chosen hunt "B" as their second choice. So after the one tag for hunt "A" is assigned to the lowest number in the draw, there are in theory 99 other hunters competing for the one tag in hunt "B". This makes the odds that appear to be 100%, actually diminish to 1%. No one would be privy to that data based on what is published.

Add several other hunters with hunt "B" as their 3rd through 5th choice, and whose first two choices get filled right away, and the odds possibly become even worse.

IMO, the bonus data that is published provides a good general idea of your odds. Not even close to perfect though. I'd be willing to bet that gohunt.com has formulated some pretty reliable odds factoring in the bonus points per first choice applicant. Tempted to join. I'm a NV resident, with a whole pile of points in just about every species. Fingers crossed, and thanks for this thread.

 

[trail@goHunt]

Thanks toprut,

Trail, is this right?

The general concept is correct that the odds of later choices are dependent on the odds of the earlier choices. However, the math presented here is definitely incorrect, and a simple example will demonstrate why. We'll start with the approach provided:

Regarding choice order and the impact it has on a hunt's odds, in general you can reliably estimate that with some simple math. For example, let's say you have 5 choices:
Starting at the top, the choice 1 odds are always whatever they are listed at. So in this case 10%. From there, you do some simple subtraction to figure out the rest. Your choice 2 odds would be:
15% (choice 2 odds) - 10% (choice 1 odds) = 5% (odds you will actually draw your second choice)

Just to test the math, we'll use the same example with one change (ignoring that the modification would be a poor application strategy):

• Let's say Choice 1 odds were 50% odds and Choice 2 odds were 10%
• Plugging that into this same equation, we get 2nd Choice draw odds of -40%
• Obviously it's impossible to have a negative probability, so that rules out this calculation pretty definitively.

Also, an application's overall odds (the probability of an application drawing *something*) is not simply the highest odds of any individual choice. Because the odds at each choice after the 1st are dependent on the the earlier choices and their odds, a compound probability has to be applied to determine the overall odds.

The take home message that we can all agree on though is that application choice strategy should be to stagger your picks with better hunts (worst odds) first on down to your best odds. As an application is evaluated from choices 1 to 5, this guarantees you'll get your best hunt and not waste choices.

 

[robby denning]

Trail! You just hit on what I've been trying to verbalize all along, that odds change depending on where that choice is listed between one and five. That is why I'm hesitant to list long shots first as they affect my lower choices that I'd certainly be happy with.

Thanks for all your time on this.

 

[Billinsd]

The draw is administered by a private entity. System Consultants, Wildlife Administrative Services Office (WASO) administers Nevada's hunt application program through their office in Fallon.

Don't these same people do the drawings for Utah too?

 

[weaver]

It just takes into consideration that you could draw your first choice therefore theoretically lessning your chances of drawing the following choices.
The worse your first choice odds are the less it impacts the odds of drawing your following choices.

Sent from my XT1635-01 using Tapatalk

 

[statikpunk]

Yes, I have lived in Northern Nevada my whole life and the draw system is a little confusing to say the least. For instance it took me a solid hour of studying just to get put in for the half dozen different Elk oportunities available this year. This thread did explain it as good as it can be explained though..in a nutshell first choices are your dream areas and last choices are high percentage areas. personally I pick high percentage areas as my first choices and leave the rest blank so that way even if Im not the first guy drawn at least I get to go hunting. I dont mind poor quality deer or poor numbers, as long as I have a tag in my pocket..

 

[robby denning]

statikpunk
me too, I've left choices blank for the reasons clarified in post #22. Even lower quality NV units are better than most OTC hunts in other states.

 

[statikpunk]

statikpunk
me too, I've left choices blank for the reasons clarified in post #22. Even lower quality NV units are better than most OTC hunts in other states.

exactly, it may be just me but I would rather go hunting in area 7 or 10 every year than spend 10 years dreaming about that area 8 hunt. I just like for there to be some tags left when my number finally gets drawn. area 10 archery will get you a tag every year, and that probably goes for out of staters too. of course you will have to deal with throngs of hunters, poor acces, or hipoxia, but nothing the people on this forum shouldnt be able to handle. its funny how the hunters seem to thin out at 10,000 feet

 

[trail@goHunt]

Sorry, perhaps there's been a misinterpretation of the explanation. I'm not saying you better your odds by listing lesser hunts as your first choices. I am not suggesting you should list a easy draw tag as your first choice and not listing additional choices. Not listing multiple choices would decrease your odds of drawing a permit. Think about it like this if you flip a coin the chances are 50%you'll get a heads....if you flip that same coin 5 times your chances are better than 50% that you'll get a heads. Translates over...5 choices give you the opportunity to have all choices considered before moving on.

 

[weaver]

I fail to see how it improves your odds of getting a tag by listing a high odds hunt as a 1st choice vs 5th choice.
Using all your choices for high odds hunts make sense as there's a bigger chance that one of those choices could fall in the draw and one could get lucky without having a high draw number.

Sent from my XT1635-01 using Tapatalk

 

[robby denning]

Sorry, perhaps there's been a misinterpretation of the explanation. I'm not saying you better your odds by listing lesser hunts as your first choices. I am not suggesting you should list a easy draw tag as your first choice and not listing additional choices. Not listing multiple choices would decrease your odds of drawing a permit. Think about it like this if you flip a coin the chances are 50%you'll get a heads....if you flip that same coin 5 times your chances are better than 50% that you'll get a heads. Translates over...5 choices give you the opportunity to have all choices considered before moving on.

No I don't think I misunderstood you. I think I'm coming from a place that lower choice (as in better odds) hunts would work just fine for me and I don't want to decrease my chances of drawing them by listing some pie in the sky hunt first. That's what I'm taking away from this


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Grundy53]

Trail! You just hit on what I've been trying to verbalize all along, that odds change depending on where that choice is listed between one and five. That is why I'm hesitant to list long shots first as they affect my lower choices that I'd certainly be happy with.

Thanks for all your time on this.

I don't understand why you would hesitate. If your number is pulled and you have a hunt choice that is still available as a 4th or 5th choice the only reason you wouldn't get it is if one of your higher choices (presumably more sought after hunt) was still available. Isn't that a good thing? From the sounds of it a guy should just list the hunt choices in the order in which he would prefer to draw them. Even if you list the first four choices as hunts that are near lottery odds if your fifth choice is a 100% draw then you will be hunting every year.

Sent from my E6782 using Tapatalk

 

[trail@goHunt]

Trail, keep me honest here...

What makes Nevada tough to handicap is that no one knows anyone's second through fourth choices. Take this scenario in general terms...

100 people put in for hunt "A" as their first choice. There is only 1 tag in hunt "A". Odds are 1% (1/100), right?

Hunt "B" only has one hunter select it as his first choice. There is also only 1 tag available in hunt "B". The way NDOW would show this in the stats is a 100% chance of being drawn. One first choice applicant, 1 tag.

The problem with this is that everyone that chose hunt "A" as their first choice, may have also chosen hunt "B" as their second choice. So after the one tag for hunt "A" is assigned to the lowest number in the draw, there are in theory 99 other hunters competing for the one tag in hunt "B". This makes the odds that appear to be 100%, actually diminish to 1%. No one would be privy to that data based on what is published.

Add several other hunters with hunt "B" as their 3rd through 5th choice, and whose first two choices get filled right away, and the odds possibly become even worse.

IMO, the bonus data that is published provides a good general idea of your odds. Not even close to perfect though. I'd be willing to bet that gohunt.com has formulated some pretty reliable odds factoring in the bonus points per first choice applicant. Tempted to join. I'm a NV resident, with a whole pile of points in just about every species. Fingers crossed, and thanks for this thread.

You are right, Nevada only provides first choice applicants and tags in a simple report. We have taken the steps to obtain all the data and are able to simulate the draw over and over, allowing us to calculate draw odds. Those are based on the actual draw. It would definitely be beneficial to you if you are sitting on points, not only in Nevada but other states as well.

 

[toprut]

Just to test the math, we'll use the same example with one change (ignoring that the modification would be a poor application strategy):

• Let's say Choice 1 odds were 50% odds and Choice 2 odds were 10%
• Plugging that into this same equation, we get 2nd Choice draw odds of -40%
• Obviously it's impossible to have a negative probability, so that rules out this calculation pretty definitively.

And that's generally one of the points with the math. If you get a negative percentage you've got choices out of order somewhere along the line.

Also, an application's overall odds (the probability of an application drawing *something*) is not simply the highest odds of any individual choice.

Actually - it is (materially) - IF you order your choices correctly. And the data strongly supports it. We'll agree to disagree.

 

[VANDAL]

Thanks everyone for this information. Can't say I totally understand the statistics behind draw odds, but I now have a clear cut strategy on how I position preferred hunt choices in NV.

Also I learned the value of reliable online sources where you go to find accurate draw odds...especially in states like NV. If you compare some of these sites there is a huge discrepancy.

Hope I draw NV this year!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[MuleyFever]

This is one of those threads that gets more confusing the more people talk.

 

[robby denning]

This is one of those threads that gets more confusing the more people talk.

I wouldn't argue with that, but it does show me that I have not always ordered my applications right if I want to get a tag for sure. It also shows me how to order my application if there's a certain hunt that I want best odds for.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[elkstabber]

I'm very confident in my knowledge of math/statistics and feel that Toprut described it best.

 

[trail@goHunt]

Hopefully it's been helpful, although it is somewhat complex to work through. Once again, happy to help or answer any other questions!

 

[Nomad]

I'd love to see all the PMs that have been generated as a result of this thread.