Do you really understand Nevada Draw Odds?

[tipsntails7]

I'm very confident in my knowledge of math/statistics and feel that Toprut described it best.

Except you can't have a negative probability. I'm not aware of anywhere in math that that's an acceptable outcome.
I'm not going to act like I understand the draw odds better then anyone else, but that's the only flaw I see in his explanation.


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[ChukarUp]

There has to be another forum on the web for debating mathematical philosophies. There just has to be. lol.

...back to hunting...if you put harder to draw units on your application after easier to draw units, you are not giving yourself any kind of realistic chance to draw the harder units. Whether that is a negative percent, zero percent, or stranger things have happened and there is somehow a very small chance, I don't know, but that's the simple answer to this part of the thread.

Once you understand how the Nevada draw works, it will seem like common sense.

The take away for me on this thread is that gohunt bases their odds on multiple draw simulations. Pretty cool, and given the mathematical complexity of calculating draw odds in Nevada, this seems like the most sound approach. I'd bet gohunt has the most realistic numbers based on this approach.

Thanks again for the thread, and good luck to everyone this year in the draw.

 

[Grundy53]

There has to be another forum on the web for debating mathematical philosophies. There just has to be. lol.

...back to hunting...if you put harder to draw units on your application after easier to draw units, you are not giving yourself any kind of realistic chance to draw the harder units. Whether that is a negative percent, zero percent, or stranger things have happened and there is somehow a very small chance, I don't know, but that's the simple answer to this part of the thread.

Once you understand how the Nevada draw works, it will seem like common sense.

The take away for me on this thread is that gohunt bases their odds on multiple draw simulations. Pretty cool, and given the mathematical complexity of calculating draw odds in Nevada, this seems like the most sound approach. I'd bet gohunt has the most realistic numbers based on this approach.

Thanks again for the thread, and good luck to everyone this year in the draw.

Agreed

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[trail@goHunt]

Haha...ok bear with me for one more post which I think will help out with some of the confusion, it may be overkill but here goes. If you aren’t the type of person that really geeks out on the nitty gritty and math involved then you might skip to the last few bullet points. But for those interested, as a team we worked with our data scientist and went though the scenario provided.

A few highlights before we get into the numbers.
1.) a formula that could result in a negative probability cannot be correct.
2.) compounding probabilities affect each other multiplicatively, not simply through addition or subtraction
3.) if you have multiple choices your overall odds of drawing one of your choices is higher than your single best choice odds.


With our calculations, our data scientist ran the scenario toprut provided through 100 million simulations just to make sure we are confident and the results listed below are solid.

1st choice odds = 0.1
2nd choice odds = 0.135
3rd choice odds = 0.153
4th choice odds = 0.153
5th choice odds = 0.138

So the first choice odds, as we both agreed are 10%. 2nd = 13.5%, 3rd = 15.3% etc…
You get a 67.87% chance for the app as a whole, meaning that once your application is being evaluated you have a 68% chance of having one of your hunts awarded to you, not simply 30%. This might sound strange, but remember the coin flip analogy. You flip a coin once, 50% odds..you flip it 5 times the odds compound that you’ll get at least one heads.

Now lets say we reversed the order (going from easiest to hardest) on that same hypothetical application. The overall odds for the application stay the same at 67.87% (which makes sense) but the odds of drawing each specific choice change significantly:

1st choice odds = 0.3
2nd choice odds = 0.175
3rd choice odds = 0.105
4th choice odds = 0.063
5th choice odds = 0.036

Now before you jump to the conclusion that you should put you best odds hunt as your first choice it’s very important that you understand…the odds of your 5th choice in the first scenario are only lower because there is a better probability that you will have drawn one of you first few choices. In the second scenario where the odds are in inverse order from how they should be, notice how poor your odds are for the good hunts at the bottom. You’re essentially wasting those because the odds of drawing your first few choices are higher.


* To maximize your odds to draw, you should use all 5 choices.
* You always have better odds overall with more choices.
* Put your most desired hunts first so you draw them if they're available..followed by your best odds hunts.

 

[Nomad]

I'm sold on all that. Sell me on your service. What's the good stuff and how many $s.

 

[trail@goHunt]

I'm sold on all that. Sell me on your service. What's the good stuff and how many $s.

Our subscription service is called goHUNT Insider. It's $149 annually and gives you access to all of our Insider information, which includes a unit profile for every unit and species in nine western states. Each unit profile includes information on trophy potential, access, camping/lodging, terrain descriptions, tag quotas and trends, harvest success and trends, monthly precipitation and average temperatures. We also cover draw odds extensively and have a filtering system where your can filter a state by species, odds, harvest success, trophy potential. It's a catch all if you are trying to research opportunities throughout the west. If Rokslide forum members are interested in signing up we can offer a $50 Sportsman's Warehouse gift card with your subscription. Just head over to gohunt.com and sign up to be an Insider and use the promo code ROKSLIDE

 

[Nomad]

Sold

 

[robby denning]

Post #44 nailed it down even better for me.


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[itsTyrtruion]

I think theres a few vital pieces of information missing from this whole thread. In a way, you are not really going to find an accurate draw odds number for hunt units missing the choice 2-5 data. but I can (with some humor) make sense of how the system works and why an earlier comment you made Robby is somewhat incorrect.
lets say youre a guy, a single guy, at a bar, and are looking for some romance that evening.
you look around and see there are about 99 other guys in the bar with you and there are 25 gals that are not wearing a wedding ring.
2 of those gals are extremely good looking and its apparent from the cluster of other guys around them its a tough draw... lets say these 2 gals represent your dream hunt... are you going to be the guy that decides because the chances are so low that youll get her number you wont even attempt to talk to her?
I mean... over in the corner by the air hockey theres a gal whos a solid 6 that looks kinda lonely... it might be easier to skip the hot girls and just go talk to her instead. And seeing how the odds are good youll take her home that night (because none of the other guys are putting in for her first, and you happened to draw a super low number) the only thing youre guaranteed is that you don't even have a chance of drawing that hot girl. its not a horrible thing to end up hunting area 10 for the rest of your life. but if you put it first youll never know if you could have drawn megan fox...

 

[MuleyFever]

I am going to be honest, I really dont understand this thread. What I do understand is that no one can accurately predict NV draw odds. No matter what simulations are run you cannot account for what units people will put in for year-to-year. Since all your choices are looked at before the next guy gets a chance it is always better to put your dream units before your go-to units.

 

[elkstabber]

I think theres a few vital pieces of information missing from this whole thread. In a way, you are not really going to find an accurate draw odds number for hunt units missing the choice 2-5 data. but I can (with some humor) make sense of how the system works and why an earlier comment you made Robby is somewhat incorrect.
lets say youre a guy, a single guy, at a bar, and are looking for some romance that evening.
you look around and see there are about 99 other guys in the bar with you and there are 25 gals that are not wearing a wedding ring.
2 of those gals are extremely good looking and its apparent from the cluster of other guys around them its a tough draw... lets say these 2 gals represent your dream hunt... are you going to be the guy that decides because the chances are so low that youll get her number you wont even attempt to talk to her?
I mean... over in the corner by the air hockey theres a gal whos a solid 6 that looks kinda lonely... it might be easier to skip the hot girls and just go talk to her instead. And seeing how the odds are good youll take her home that night (because none of the other guys are putting in for her first, and you happened to draw a super low number) the only thing youre guaranteed is that you don't even have a chance of drawing that hot girl. its not a horrible thing to end up hunting area 10 for the rest of your life. but if you put it first youll never know if you could have drawn megan fox...

You didn't clarify if the single guy was straight. He could greatly improve his odds if he swung both ways. This way he would have 124 other choices

 

[itsTyrtruion]

You didn't clarify if the single guy was straight. He could greatly improve his odds if he swung both ways. This way he would have 124 other choices

I would assume if he swung both ways it wouldn't really improve his odds as most of the guys are flocking towards the hot chic... but to relate to the Nevada draw... we have a 2nd draw that opens up100% of the remaining deer tags to non resident instead of the initial 10%

wouldn't that be similar to finding out they swing both ways? like... BAM!!! more opportunity!!!

 

[robby denning]

I think theres a few vital pieces of information missing from this whole thread. In a way, you are not really going to find an accurate draw odds number for hunt units missing the choice 2-5 data. but I can (with some humor) make sense of how the system works and why an earlier comment you made Robby is somewhat incorrect.
lets say youre a guy, a single guy, at a bar, and are looking for some romance that evening.
you look around and see there are about 99 other guys in the bar with you and there are 25 gals that are not wearing a wedding ring.
2 of those gals are extremely good looking and its apparent from the cluster of other guys around them its a tough draw... lets say these 2 gals represent your dream hunt... are you going to be the guy that decides because the chances are so low that youll get her number you wont even attempt to talk to her?
I mean... over in the corner by the air hockey theres a gal whos a solid 6 that looks kinda lonely... it might be easier to skip the hot girls and just go talk to her instead. And seeing how the odds are good youll take her home that night (because none of the other guys are putting in for her first, and you happened to draw a super low number) the only thing youre guaranteed is that you don't even have a chance of drawing that hot girl. its not a horrible thing to end up hunting area 10 for the rest of your life. but if you put it first youll never know if you could have drawn megan fox...

I think we're on the same page. I don't need to draw Megan Fox to kill a big deer so I'm not wasting my time on her. I'd rather hunt than hold out for a long shot.


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[Grundy53]

I think we're on the same page. I don't need to draw Megan Fox to kill a big deer so I'm not wasting my time on her. I'd rather hunt than hold out for a long shot.


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But the point is. If you put in for "Megan Fox" first you won't be wasting your time. If you would draw that easier to draw hunt with your first choice you would draw it with your fifth choice. Unless you got extremely lucky and drew "Megan Fox".

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[robby denning]

Sure, but I've watched too many guys crash and burn on premium hunts (including me). It's often not "the tag" that gets you the big deer. Most of my good bucks have come from tags not highly sought after in areas I could learn by hunting repeatedly. Areas that would most likely be 3rd-5th choices for many hunters.


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[Grundy53]

Sure, but I've watched too many guys crash and burn on premium hunts (including me). It's often not "the tag" that gets you the big deer. Most of my good bucks have come from tags not highly sought after in areas I could learn by hunting repeatedly. Areas that would most likely be 3rd-5th choices for many hunters.


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True. I was just looking at it as a purely statistical thing. I wasn't adding strategy. Adding in strategy and I definitely agree with you. I would rather hunt every year than hold out for 10 years for a "dream hunt".

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[trail@goHunt]

Sure, but I've watched too many guys crash and burn on premium hunts (including me). It's often not "the tag" that gets you the big deer. Most of my good bucks have come from tags not highly sought after in areas I could learn by hunting repeatedly. Areas that would most likely be 3rd-5th choices for many hunters.


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That's the beauty of Nevadas draw system, it's random and you can list the best hunts as your first choice and likely still pick up a decent tag as a 4th or 5th choice. I certainly understand and agree with that hunt strategy over the long term, not only in Nevada, but all states when it makes sense. Goes back to the probability example. Hunt one time in a good area in twenty years, your chances are decent you'll kill a good buck. Hunt an average area area ten times in twenty years and your chances are good you'll kill at least one good buck and who knows..maybe more.

 

[Travis Bertrand]

I am going to be honest, I really dont understand this thread. What I do understand is that no one can accurately predict NV draw odds. No matter what simulations are run you cannot account for what units people will put in for year-to-year. Since all your choices are looked at before the next guy gets a chance it is always better to put your dream units before your go-to units.

You are semi right. Gohunt can accurately predict your odds based off of last years data. Obviously they can't predict what people will do on application day. GOHUNT, get on that would ya

 

[Nomad]

Just now finally signed up... Here we go.

 

[robby denning]

Just now finally signed up... Here we go.

Let us know what you think. Be prepared to look up at some point and realize you've been on their site for 2.5 hours hahaha


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