Colorado Mule Deer B&C

[idahohikker]

Here are numbers of B&C Entries per state from 2010-2017 per Muley Freak https://muleyfreak.com/2018/02/05/top-10-trophy-mule-deer-producing-states/):

Location	Entries
1. CO	155
2. Sask	68
3. UT	54
4. ID	48
5. WY	39
6. NV	39
7. Mex	28
8. Alb	27
9. NM	26
10. MT	19

So in Colorado we're looking at 8 years and 155 entries or 19 entries per year. This is an outrageously high number and is lapping the field.

What are your predictions on Colorado mule deer entries per year from 2024-2031 and why? I personally am pretty green on the Colorado scene but understand the new season structures and concerns. I selected 3 years into the new season structure so the effects start being felt.

I'm thinking that Colorado drops in entries but doesn't fall off a cliff because they are starting from a really high baseline.

@robby denning your perspective is welcomed by me and others for sure, as usual.

 

[robby denning]

good post!
I think we might see the entries start to decline after the 2021 season as our older bucks are gonna take more pressure with these late seasons.

But this graph is more historical than we might think. Colorado's always had 3-4 more times the entries than UT/ID. I'm grabbing an image right now from Kirt's book, page 52 from the 1981 Edition of B&C and one from 1973.

 

[idahohikker]

good post!
I think we might see the entries start to decline after the 2021 season as our older bucks are gonna take more pressure with these late seasons.

But this graph is more historical than we might think. Colorado's always had 3-4 more times the entries than UT/ID. I'm grabbing an image right now from Kirt's book, page 52 from the 1981 Edition of B&C and one from 1973.

Very interesting charts. So what's your per year best estimate if you had to guess?

 

[robby denning]

Very interesting charts. So what's your per year best estimate if you had to guess?

Just pulling numbers out of my butt—can’t imagine we wouldn’t see a 10 to a 20% decrease in entries.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[idahohikker]

Just pulling numbers out of my butt—can’t imagine we wouldn’t see a 10 to a 20% decrease in entries.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Thanks! I think 20-30% seems reasonably likely. There are going to be some warm years, for example, when 3rd and 4th seasons just are tough hunting.

Part of the reason for the post is that I'm hearing predictions that seem way more dire and that just doesn't strike me as likely.

 

[Pacific_Fork]

Most are saying there will be a big loss of older age class bucks over the next 5 years with the season date changes. I have a feeling it wont be as dire as some are saying but still a decline. I am hunting SW CO 3rd season this year (unless I get lucky and draw elsewhere) and I look forward to comparing my experience when I go back 2-4 years from now to the same area.

 

[robby denning]

Most are saying there will be a big loss of older age class bucks over the next 5 years with the season date changes. I have a feeling it wont be as dire as some are saying but still a decline. I am hunting SW CO 3rd season this year (unless I get lucky and draw elsewhere) and I look forward to comparing my experience when I go back 2-4 years from now to the same area.

sure
something to remember is that even when there was no management of license numbers, Co was still kicking out giant bucks.

Someone look up the entries from '93-99. I'd wager that number of entries will be the very low end of what to expect, and I don't think we'll even get close to that as we're still under limited licenses... but who knows...

 

[dirtytough]

Great discussion. Thanks idahohikker for bringing it up.

My back of the cuff assessment says there will be more entries on average for the next 2 years. Then I think it will drop off. When we get into your range of 2024-2031 there just won't be as many bucks that are allowed to get 3+ years of age on them. Most hunters aren't passing up a 160" buck. Let alone 175" buck. Since that is probably a 3.5 year old buck if it has B&C genetics it just makes it tough for them to grow up.

How many hunters are going to burn 10+ points and not kill a 150" buck on the last day? How many hunters that burn 3 points aren't going to shoot 150" buck on the first day? Most hunters feel they have to shoot something. The later dates are going to allow hunters to hunt bucks that just aren't quite as wary as usual.

This is based on western Colorado. Eastern Colorado should stay the same since its managed by the property owners. And I could be way off on my assessment. Maybe it won't change that much. And maybe the G&F won't issue as many tags. Makes it hard to fully assess without knowing if tag numbers will stay the same, increase, or decrease.

I'll let the experts continue now.

 

[Jd259]

What’s a deer gotta score to make B&C?

 

[bohntr]

All-time record book for typical is 190” net. Nontypical is 230” net.

The Awards Program is 180” net for typical and 215” net for nontypical.

 

[orionthehunter1]

I bet we see an uptick the next three years then after that I would expect to see a decline. The dates for the next three years are a recipe to hammer the older age class bucks. Unless there is a full moon or temps in the 70s then they might survive. Looking at the calendar though 2021 is going to be rough on mature deer. To think there won't be a significant drop off in quality is foolish just how big of a drop is the question.

 

[Jd259]

All-time record book for typical is 190” net. Nontypical is 230” net.

The Awards Program is 180” net for typical and 215” net for nontypical.

Got ya well Wyoming has 40 then I never “officially” scored my buck last year

 

[street]

I bet we see an uptick the next three years then after that I would expect to see a decline. The dates for the next three years are a recipe to hammer the older age class bucks. Unless there is a full moon or temps in the 70s then they might survive. Looking at the calendar though 2021 is going to be rough on mature deer. To think there won't be a significant drop off in quality is foolish just how big of a drop is the question.

Exactly. Just look at the second rifle season dates. Hundreds of tag allocations in that season that is essentially a 3rd season tag now. It will be interesting to see how the point game changes. I would be burning my points if I had a lot.

 

[sndmn11]

The 2nd season is the old 3rd season logic has us spending 9 points on a 2nd season tag that is still years away for 3rd and 4th to try and sneak in and steal a buck before the real heavy point carriers show up.

 

[Jd259]

The 2nd season is the old 3rd season logic has us spending 9 points on a 2nd season tag that is still years away for 3rd and 4th to try and sneak in and steal a buck before the real heavy point carriers show up.

I’m guilty....

 

[sndmn11]

I’m guilty....

Guilty as a rad fox.

 

[Rich M]

When I was checking my buck at the CWD checkpoint they showed me a photo of a 200-inch+ typical taken from the same unit. He was tall & wide & real pretty the way the tips all curled in.

Yes, some bucks will be taken, but the genetics are there and not all get killed.

 

[wyo2track]

If other hunting reports are correct from last year, NW Colorado is already on the decline. Last year there were more 3rd season and 4th season tags in many areas. Many 2nd season tags were reduced and those tags put into 3rd season. Many disappointed experienced CO hunters from last year in traditionally what are fantastic areas. I should get the B&C membership so I can access the records. I'd like to see a breakdown on counties, where the bucks are coming from. With the DOW's assault on mature bucks that started last year, NW Colorado is going to see a major change. Really feels like the CO Parks is rapping the cash cow (hunters) right now. They may not care about trophy quality anymore, just sell the most tags possible and sell they will. I hunted 3rd season that was a 2nd choice tag last year in NW Colorado. Went from 630 tags in 2018 to almost 1000 in 2019. I didn't expect much, but had never hunted mule deer in November so I gave it a shot. Saw 3 bucks in 7 days, a 20" 3x3 was the biggest. Elk frickin' everywhere though. Get at least 1.5 miles away from the truck and stopped seeing the orange pumpkin patch. I hunted 4 different trailheads during that time, snow was over a foot deep above 9000'. Interesting hunt...think I'll keep building points on my 1st choice this year. I may spring for a 2nd season tag in the next 5 yrs instead of waiting for a 3rd with the later dates.

 

[sndmn11]

If other hunting reports are correct from last year, NW Colorado is already on the decline. Last year there were more 3rd season and 4th season tags in many areas. Many 2nd season tags were reduced and those tags put into 3rd season. Many disappointed experienced CO hunters from last year in traditionally what are fantastic areas. I hunted 3rd season that was a 2nd choice tag last year in NW Colorado. Went from 630 tags in 2018 to almost 1000 in 2019. I didn't expect much, but had never hunted mule deer in November so I gave it a shot. Saw 3 bucks in 7 days, a 20" 3x3 was the biggest. Elk frickin' everywhere though.

For units 12, 13, 23, 24, 2018 vs 2019 estimated harvest
2nd season 427bucks / 361bucks
3rd season 387bucks / 408bucks
4th season 15bucks / 56bucks

 

[street]

The second is the new third season idea is an interesting one. If people are hoping for a true rut hunt with this years dates they are going to be very disappointed for the most part.

I agree. Don't get me wrong, I am not saying it guarantees people have a solid rut hunt. What I am saying, is the season shifts will certainly increase the probability of big bucks getting shot. More overlap with hunters in the woods with the Gaussian curve of the rut. Just look at state like MI, MN and WI.