Colorado draw odds- any bets?

[blackdawg]

I wonder how many people that draw the 0-1 point units and spend the cash to hunt will want to get another dose of that mediocrity again. There are legit reasons why those units have been easy to draw and undersubscribed. I felt froggy last year and did the easy draw trick, about 3 days in and I realized I should get the spice out for a bowl of tag soup with a dose of turd unit spice. Fortunately it wasn’t my main game for the trip just a way to waste some money if I had extra time after an elk hunt. Yes, reality check for this Old bird. The hunters numbers are finite and I really don’t see how all of a sudden that many more guys would be all of a sudden itching to shoot a deer in 0-1 point units. I suspect the novelty will wear off next season.


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[vanish]

I've already answered what the application fee change will be. It was signed in to law two days ago. CPW can't just change fees to their liking, it has to go through the legislature.

Up to $10 for residents and up to $20 for NRs.

I may eat my words, but I really don't think 0 point units are going to get hit hard this year. The new people who put in bought the $3 preference point because it was cheap and easy. Actually committing to hunt is not easy for a lot of people. I'll bet 95% of them put in for PP only.

 

[ckleeves]

It’s not that guys will be itching to draw a 0-1 point unit. Those 0-1 point units will slowly become 2-3 point units because guys will have a few points and nowhere to draw but what (was) a 0-1 point unit.

Let’s say a Frank has 3 points and can’t draw any good units.

He sees the writing on the wall and would rather hunt then build points for a unit he may not catch. He puts in for a sure thing with his 3 points. Now Ted has been drawing this same tag every other year for a decade. All of the sudden Frank has Teds tag and now Ted goes into the draw the next year with 2 points.

Well this bumps Jack out of the draw that year and now he is in with 2 points the following year.

It’s a slow cycle but it certainly happens. I don’t think anybody knows what % increase this new move will fuel this trend but it certainly won’t help.


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[Foldem]

Guys, please if you are not happy take the time to give your input as Robie lined out in post #91. We need to voice our opinions in a meaningful fashion to the right people. If you are unhappy and replying to this post you have a responsibility to let the CPW know so that they can at least hear and consider your input and ideas of how to fix things.

 

[30338]

When Utah required you to start buying a nonresident hunting license in order to build points years ago, I said screw it and left my 7 points in the system and stopped applying there. I am going to bet that many folks who applied due to the $3 application fee, have no idea that their credit cards are going to be hit for the point fees coming to their cards in June. Maybe it will lose some of the novelty when they see $200 plus in fees for points.

 

[robby denning]

OK, this is been a great thread, but I’d like to start another one on draw updates, like we did with Nevada. Do you guys know if there’s already been one put up somewhere? I know it’s my site, but it seems like half the times you guys know more about it than Ryan and I do ha ha ha ha


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[sndmn11]

I never thought a government entity saving a crazy amount of money over the old ways would have so many people upset. Every single year there are leftover tags, there are over the counter tags, there are list B tags....there are unused opportunities and I am sure there will be the same this year. I harvested twice off of list B tags last year, while having a blast and adding points, and it is hard not to think that some of the complaints are well past over dramatic.

*My reference to over the counter tags was due to thinking this was a General discussion thread, and not in the Mule Deer section.

 

[Joe Schmo]

I am going to bet that many folks who applied due to the $3 application fee, have no idea that their credit cards are going to be hit for the point fees coming to their cards in June. Maybe it will lose some of the novelty when they see $200 plus in fees for points.

What??

 

[sneaky]

What??

You thought a deer preference point was only $3? That was just the application fee

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[El General]

You thought a deer preference point was only $3? That was just the application fee

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Not if you had a 2017 license.

 

[Thomas11]

Not if you had a 2017 license.

That’s what I thought too about PP fee correct? It’s 40 bucks a species for NR or 65 for fishing license unless u had a 2017 license there. But realistically since it was so many new app for the trophy species there, the question is was it existing customers there that always apply for elk and deer or was it totally new ppl that decided to jump in that never apply for elk or deer? Idk but my guess is that the elk and deer new applicants won’t change much and that this massive influx for sheep and goat were existing guys that apply for elk and deer there but we will c!

 

[sndmn11]

That’s what I thought too about PP fee correct? It’s 40 bucks a species for NR or 65 for fishing license unless u had a 2017 license there. But realistically since it was so many new app for the trophy species there, the question is was it existing customers there that always apply for elk and deer or was it totally new ppl that decided to jump in that never apply for elk or deer? Idk but my guess is that the elk and deer new applicants won’t change much and that this massive influx for sheep and goat were existing guys that apply for elk and deer there but we will c!

This is my perspective here, at least for resident licenses which I am.
I personally had never applied for moose, goat, sheep, but deer and elk regularly, with points only for pronghorn. This year I was able to apply for the expensive three. I haven't looked at the numbers floating around at how many additional applications were for those three, and it would be interesting to see how many were residents vs non. I don't think applications will increase any more than recent trends for residents on deer, elk, pronghorn, and bear simply because you could apply for all four for about the cost of a nice date at The Fort followed by a movie.

 

[Gunnersdad49]

I personally had never applied for moose, goat, sheep, but deer and elk regularly, with points only for pronghorn. This year I was able to apply for the expensive three.

This is why some of us that have been applying for moose for 16 years grumble about the system change. Of course, we grumbled about having to give the state an interest free loan for 3 months in the past, so I guess we are just happiest when we are unhappy.

 

[sneaky]

That would be assuming that everyone had one. I'm gonna guess that a bunch did not. We'll find out soon enough.

Not if you had a 2017 license.

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[Joe Schmo]

Seems legit. Those of us who’ve been buying a fishing license every year need not worry

 

[sndmn11]

This is why some of us that have been applying for moose for 16 years grumble about the system change. Of course, we grumbled about having to give the state an interest free loan for 3 months in the past, so I guess we are just happiest when we are unhappy.

I can understand why you are grumbling, absolutely I do. If the system were just straight preference points like deer/elk etc. (like I think it used to be?) then the new policy would have no bearing on your 16 points..but then folks (would) complain that point creep made it so they would never draw. So again, I like how you put it that we are happiest when we are unhappy. I think a super complicated system could be created where there are tons of options, maybe even something that cycles through those options...
2018 Unit 10 Bull
1st season weighted draw
2nd season straight points
3rd season true lottery
2019
1st season straight points
2nd season true lottery
3rd season weighted
2020
1st season true lottery
2nd weighted
3rd season straight preference points

But then again folks would complain how wonky and complicated that is....

In the end, I choose to look at the whole and be happy that my state is saving money by altering the way they process big game applications.

 

[Gunnersdad49]

yeah, the weighted points thing is a bit of black magic already!

 

[El General]

That would be assuming that everyone had one. I'm gonna guess that a bunch did not. We'll find out soon enough.

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You could buy a $56.00 2017 NR license and get the point fees waived. I am assuming that alot of people did that if they were applying for two or more species. I could be wrong for sure.

 

[Thomas11]

You could buy a $56.00 2017 NR license and get the point fees waived. I am assuming that alot of people did that if they were applying for two or more species. I could be wrong for sure.

that’s why I think it was existing customers that were already applying fir deer or elk or had a license from previous yr. honestly it’s about the same price as Utah and u can get two yrs outta Utah license so I think these folks that were applying for elk /deer just threw their names in for 3 bucks and prolly didn’t elect to buy the PP

 

[elkduds]

I would have lost that bet. The biggest increases were among resident applicants: