Buying a truck in this crazy market?

[z987k]

Unemployed People not looking for work are not considered part of the labor force and so aren't used in the equation for unemployment %. It's a super misleading statistic.

The unemployment rate is figured based on those folks actively LOOKING for work. That excludes a whole gob of folks since Covid. So of course it makes the unemployment rate look low.

I'm very aware. But that doesn't mean we don't have those numbers to. We do. We know there's 1.6M people on unemployment insurance, which is the official unemployment number, and 6M people unemployed that are out of insurance benefits or otherwise need a source of income to sustain themselves.
Those are both very low numbers. They are largely unskilled or skill mismatched. They're not the people that can solve the labor problems at Ford or GE, the local machinist shop or the airlines.

None of that changes the fact that as the boomers leave their jobs, there's not enough people to replace them due to demographics. When there are more job openings that people on unemployment, who are likely not remotely qualified for most of those jobs, you have the problems you're seeing.

 

[Sccritterkiller]

In mid 2020 I bought a 2019 6.2L Gas F-250 with 10,000 miles on it. I had plans to run it to the ground. Seeing how crazy the market is, I don't think I'll ever have the opportunity to upgrade like this again in my lifetime. After owning it for two years, I've put 25,000 more miles on that truck, and I'm confident I could sell it for at least $6k more than what I paid for it. Back in early January, I placed an order for a 2022 F-250 with the 7.3 motor. The dealer thought I'd have it by March or April. So far, my only update from Ford is a very general email saying certain parts are hard to get right now and may cause delays on certain models. They'll let me know when my truck is scheduled for production. Obviously a longer lead time than what the dealership thought, but I'm not in a huge hurry. As long as used prices stay high, my new vehicle price is locked in so I come away a winner with very little extra out of pocket and a new vehicle to drive. In the meantime, I'm wearing down the the tires on someone else's future truck, but don't anticipate I'll have to replace them before I sell.

I just checked Ford's website, and it looks like they've upped prices about 6% for the truck I ordered just since January. That, and it says they are no longer accepting orders for certain 2022 models because they are so far behind. I do feel bad for people who are in a situation where they are stuck needing to buy in this market. If you need something now, it's a really tough time to be a buyer. If you have time to wait, I think ordering well ahead of when you need something is a wise choice.

I am about a year ahead of you..order my F250 7.3 Feb 2021..got it in August. At that time is was steering assist chip that was the delay, it set at KMS for 3ish months. I had to put down a 1k deposit and sign a contract, and some other doc that said I was the buyer, there was issue with dealers putting in fake orders to get inventory last year...With X plan and PCO got it 11k under MSRP. Sold my '10 Expedtion outright with 275k for 8k... got a brand new F250 for like 10k more than the price of a similar option used truck these days...when you consider the warranty and the parts shortage with loaner if needed it's a no brianer if you can wait. First new vechile I ever bought wasnt worth buying new before.

I do agree with comments above...Manufactors have got a taste of demand and the profits that come with it. Ford closed their order books 2 months early this yr. Even if the manufacturers had chips why would they want to flood the market with product and drive down prices?..I too believe thousands of cars on a lot is a thing of the past, unless it's a lot full of post production cars waiting on chips/parts.

 

[z987k]

I am about a year ahead of you..order my F250 7.3 Feb 2021..got it in August. At that time is was steering assist chip that was the delay, it set at KMS for 3ish months. I had to put down a 1k deposit and sign a contract, and some other doc that said I was the buyer, there was issue with dealers putting in fake orders to get inventory last year...With X plan and PCO got it 11k under MSRP. Sold my '10 Expedtion outright with 275k for 8k... got a brand new F250 for like 10k more than the price of a similar option used truck these days...when you consider the warranty and the parts shortage with loaner if needed it's a no brianer if you can wait. First new vechile I ever bought wasnt worth buying new before.

I do agree with comments above...Manufactors have got a taste of demand and the profits that come with it. Ford closed their order books 2 months early this yr. Even if they had chips why would they want to flood the market with product and drive down prices?..I too believe thousands of cars on a lot is a thing of the past, unless it's a lot full of post production cars waiting on chips/parts.

If they decide to do that forever, someone else will come in and eat their lunch. Competition.
If Ford decides to make everyone wait 4 months for a Truck and only make 90% of the demand for them, someone like Toyota or Chevy will seize on that opportunity to take a large portion of those sales by appropriately pricing and, if they can, make enough to meet demand.

If I walk into a Ford dealership and they want 10k over MSRP and/or it's a 4-8 month wait for a Truck, but I can walk over to the Toyota dealership and leave with a new truck at or slightly under MSRP, guess which one I'm buying?

 

[Sccritterkiller]

If they decide to do that forever, someone else will come in and eat their lunch. Competition.
If Ford decides to make everyone wait 4 months for a Truck and only make 90% of the demand for them, someone like Toyota or Chevy will seize on that opportunity to take a large portion of those sales by appropriately pricing and, if they can, make enough to meet demand.

If I walk into a Ford dealership and they want 10k over MSRP and/or it's a 4-8 month wait for a Truck, but I can walk over to the Toyota dealership and leave with a new truck at or slightly under MSRP, guess which one I'm buying?

Manufacturers are publicly owned compaines there primary obligation is to increase shareholder value. Manufacturing cars is second. Straight to consumer model allows them to control and accurately forecast production/labor costs and control supply. It will not just be Ford, or just Chevy, it will be all of them.

 

[CorbLand]

Out of curiosity. Those that are buying new right now and waiting. Are you able to lock in your interest rates to?

 

[twall13]

Out of curiosity. Those that are buying new right now and waiting. Are you able to lock in your interest rates to?

I didn't ask as I don't plan on financing the purchase but I doubt it was an option to lock in the interest rate when I placed the order.

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[gbflyer]

Out of curiosity. Those that are buying new right now and waiting. Are you able to lock in your interest rates to?

We have one ordered. No talk about financing. We are eligible for any incentives upon delivery that we qualify for.

 

[CorbLand]

I am just curious as to what will happen when people go to get them in the next 4 or so months and find out interest rates are pushing 6% currently and are slated to keep going up.

 

[h2so4]

I am just curious as to what will happen when people go to get them in the next 4 or so months and find out interest rates are pushing 6% currently and are slated to keep going up.

It’s going to suck, big time.

 

[z987k]

Manufacturers are publicly owned compaines there primary obligation is to increase shareholder value. Manufacturing cars is second. Straight to consumer model allows them to control and accurately forecast production/labor costs and control supply. It will not just be Ford, or just Chevy, it will be all of them.

Right. What you said is what would happen if we didn't live in a free market.

But we do. Which is why anyone that decides to hold back production for profit will get eaten alive by a company capable of production. Open the door to new manufacturers they have to compete with. It'll be a the 70's Japanese invasion all over again, with other companies and countries. It is a free market, and should all the manufacturers collude to price fix, well ideally the government fines them so badly they can't stay afloat.

Billion dollar fines are really bad for shareholder value. So is the competitor taking the majority of your market share, which under a free market is what would happen in your scenario.

Direct to consumer is what the consumer wants. But the consumer will also happily buy the competitors truck if it's available and not over inflated in price.

 

[Sccritterkiller]

I am just curious as to what will happen when people go to get them in the next 4 or so months and find out interest rates are pushing 6% currently and are slated to keep going up.

I didn't finance so no idea but in my case when the truck arrived I could have purchased it or forefiet my deposit. The dealership would have loved for me to walk away...no doubt they would have put it on their lot and added a market adjustment of at least 10k.

 

[lab-roamer]

To @Kevin Dill first point.....It's not a truck but I ordered a brand new 2022 Ski-doo snowmobile last year. Finally got it this winter 3 months late due to a certain part. 2 months later another electrical part fails, it's on backorder with no delivery date. Sure, it's covered under warranty, but what good is the warranty if they can't get parts. If this was a truck for my business I would be F--ked. Just something else to think about with these new vehicles full of electrical parts coming from the next solar system over.

 

[cmahoney]

Anyone buy a 3rd Gen Tacoma lately? I’m on the fence about selling mine to capitalize on this market.


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[Schism]

I sold a diesel pickup last summer since I didn't have much need for the diesel and I capitalized on the inflated market. I shopped both new and used and ultimately settled on a good used pickup. Dealerships couldn't provide delivery dates or guarantee incentives on new vehicles and I wasn't able to pick and choose my options without facing a much longer wait time for delivery. I decided I wasn't going to deal with all the bs going on with new vehicles or pay MSRP (or more).

After really watching the local market I found a pickup I liked for what I consider a good price and bought it. If you go this route have cash in hand, or financing ready because there will be several other people looking to buy it too. Most good used pickups in my area that were priced fairly didn't last more than 24 hours before being sold.


@CorbLand: Every dealer I talked with during my search wouldn't guarantee incentives or interest rates. Both would be based on the promotions and rates when the vehicle was delivered, not when ordered. I didn't check with any local banks to see if they would lock in a rate and ended up paying cash when I made a purchase.

 

[CorbLand]

I didn't finance so no idea but in my case when the truck arrived I could have purchased it or forefiet my deposit. The dealership would have loved for me to walk away...no doubt they would have put it on their lot and added a market adjustment of at least 10k.

As rates keep going up, less and less people will be able to buy. Not saying that your wrong but rising interest rates should do what it is supposed to and curb demand, increasing supply and lowering pricing. That's what it should do.

I am interested to see what happens when they finally start delivering vehicles.

 

[bojangles808]

Anyone buy a 3rd Gen Tacoma lately? I’m on the fence about selling mine to capitalize on this market.


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i had a 21 DCLB 4x4 for a week and traded it in. not much has changed they are pretty underwhelming. the back was way to cramped for wife and kid with carseat and the seat angle was very poor for me driving (it exacerbated tendonitis in my knee). I jumped the gun on the deal as I was getting under msrp bc of an in at the dealer and forgot i had an 09 acccess cab that was stick that gave me similar issue. I do a lot better with the more upright seats in half tons (was coming from a titan). traded it in for a f150 and am happy. gas mileage a lot better in the f150 too (2.7). I dont tow or really off road though other than going to a couple surf spots so my needs might be diffferent than most.

 

[h2so4]

Anyone buy a 3rd Gen Tacoma lately? I’m on the fence about selling mine to capitalize on this market.


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There is a good article below that is a medium length read. however, I'll sum it up for you with the closing statement from the article, "the best Toyota Tacoma is actually going to be a Toyota Tundra."

Please Stop Ruining Your Tacomas

While it’s one of the most popular adventuremobiles, it’s also one of the most widely misunderstood. Here’s how to upgrade yours without creating a monster.

www.outsideonline.com

 

[5MilesBack]

There is a good article below that is a medium length read. however, I'll sum it up for you with the closing statement from the article, "the best Toyota Tacoma is actually going to be a Toyota Tundra."

What if the full sized Tundra is too big for where you want to use it? Heck, these days even the Tacoma's are bigger than their predecessors......and still too big for some places.

 

[h2so4]

What if the full sized Tundra is too big for where you want to use it? Heck, these days even the Tacoma's are bigger than their predecessors......and still too big for some places.

contrary to what you may think, 4inches isn't that big of a difference. (HA!) Compared a '20 taco (75") to a '20 tundra (79") to find that difference.
A Wrangler JK is 74" wide..

But I'd agree- event the current taco/jeep is to big for some places. I guess the '06 and earlier Jeeps would an answer, or maybe an old Comanche?

 

[DenverCountryBoy]

Out of curiosity. Those that are buying new right now and waiting. Are you able to lock in your interest rates to?

No. Financing based on rates at time of delivery.

If rates are substantially below real inflation or if the stock market crashes, I'll finance and put my money to work. Close to or above 6% APR, I'll pay cash.