Bitcoin

[rickyw]

Msty just went through a reverse stock split, 5:1. And it has tanked even more since then.

 

[fmyth]

Msty just went through a reverse stock split, 5:1. And it has tanked even more since then.

And despite that investors who purchased 2 years ago are still up 56%. Time in market is always leads to greater gains than timing the market for the average investor.

 

[Dan Carey]

Guess I’ll buy at 50,000.

I would wager you'll never see $50,000. again

 

[KsRancher]

I am hoping to see $134,000 by June 2027 and I will make my exit. I bought in June 2025 and that would give me a 12% annual return for 2yrs

 

[rickyw]

And despite that investors who purchased 2 years ago are still up 56%. Time in market is always leads to greater gains than timing the market for the average investor.

Ah my mistake. For some reason I thought it started beginning of 2025.

 

[Beendare]

Msty just went through a reverse stock split, 5:1. And it has tanked even more since then.

I'n not a strictly Technical Trader but I have found that looking that the charts gives me an idea of the general direction of the asset/Stock/whatever. This MSTY 6 mo chart is telling.




Do you guys even know what MSTY is comprised of?

Nope, It's not Bitcoin, its mostly leveraged Treasuries...derivatives that are leveraged 100%.

 

[fmyth]

I'n not a strictly Technical Trader but I have found that looking that the charts gives me an idea of the general direction of the asset/Stock/whatever. This MSTY 6 mo chart is telling.
View attachment 1019925



Do you guys even know what MSTY is comprised of?

Nope, It's not Bitcoin, its mostly leveraged Treasuries...derivatives that are leveraged 100%.

MSTY doesn't directly own MSTR shares; it creates exposure using options (short puts, long calls) to mimic owning them, allowing it to earn income without buying the stock. The fund sells call options on MSTR, collecting premiums for this income. A significant portion of its assets is held in cash and U.S. Treasury securities to back these positions. When MSTR's price falls, these premiums become a large portion of the payout, leading to a "Return of Capital" (ROC) distribution rather than income from profits. Because it's giving back principal (capital) as distributions, the fund's NAV drops, meaning the ETF's share price falls, offsetting the high payouts. The high yields rely heavily on MSTR's volatility. When MSTR's price drops, or volatility decreases, MSTY's ability to generate income from options weakens, forcing more ROC to maintain payout causing the share price to further decline.

 

[2531usmc]

MSTY doesn't directly own MSTR shares; it creates exposure using options (short puts, long calls) to mimic owning them, allowing it to earn income without buying the stock. The fund sells call options on MSTR, collecting premiums for this income. A significant portion of its assets is held in cash and U.S. Treasury securities to back these positions. When MSTR's price falls, these premiums become a large portion of the payout, leading to a "Return of Capital" (ROC) distribution rather than income from profits. Because it's giving back principal (capital) as distributions, the fund's NAV drops, meaning the ETF's share price falls, offsetting the high payouts. The high yields rely heavily on MSTR's volatility. When MSTR's price drops, or volatility decreases, MSTY's ability to generate income from options weakens, forcing more ROC to maintain payout causing the share price to further decline.

In plain English, what does this mean?

 

[Beendare]

The Financial times came out with a piece [behind a paid subscription] but it can be seen on CNBC

Bitcoin’s value is zero and the scarcity argument is pretend​

CNBC interview Jemima Kelley on CNBC about the logic behind the article HERE...and it's right on the money IMO.

Even the Bitcoin trading desk folks are saying Bitcoin is weak and looking like it has another leg to drop. It would be worth watching ETF inflow/outflows as those are probably the key to direction. Mostly outflows in the last few months...but I saw one where they said it blipped up just a tad in the last week.


Now the Michael Saylor's of the world that own MSTR and a pile of Bitcoins are always going to be talking it up....which is exactly what the Financial Times is saying with their Headless Ponzi scheme comment.


Look, don't shoot the messenger here.......Lots of good recent analysis from trading desks and such if you search CNBC and Google..
If you do that search you find two distinct groups; This that own Crypto and are pushing the lesser fool theory...and those that don't own Crypto for the reasons in that video.

 

[Johnny Tyndall]

In plain English, what does this mean?

MSTY makes money by placing bets on the price of MSTR. In order to place the bets they need some collateral. For collateral they own a lot of treasuries. If they aren't making enough on the bets they have to use some of their collateral for payouts to their shareholders. If they're paying out their collateral, their share price goes down. That's how I read it at least.

 

[RS3579]

I would wager you'll never see $50,000. again

Know! I own zero crypto

 

[2531usmc]

George Noble was Peter Lynch’s assistant at Fidelity Investments. After Lynch retired, he started to manage Fidelity’s Overseas Investment Fund and ended up being the top performing Fidelity fund manager. You can follow him on X.

He is very anti BTC. He said purchasing BTC is like buying air. He thinks it’s complete nonsense

He also has some interesting thoughts about AI. He thinks it will never come even close to the promises being made and the malinvestment is enormous.

 

[fmyth]

In plain English, what does this mean?

MSTY exists to buy/sell options on MSTR (betting on the price going up or down). MSTY borrows the money to purchase the options (leverage) and use their capital (the money you invested in MSTY) to buy treasury bonds to put up as collateral. The money they make from buying/selling the options on MSTR is paid out weekly to the shareholders. If the fund managers fail to reach their target profit for the week they supplement the shortfall by returning some of the funds capital thus causing the value of the fund (share price) to decline. The fund performs great when MSTR is trending up (paid out 200% dividends in 2024). When MSTR is going down the majority of the weekly dividend is a return of capital which causes the share price to decline. Bitcoin has been trending down so MSTR (BTC treasury company) is trending down.

If BTC goes down, MSTR shares go down causing MSTY shares to go down. Owning MSTY is great when BTC is going up. OK when BTC is trading sideways. Bad when BTC is trending down. Still pays a high dividend (65% dist rate ytd) regardless of BTC's price action but when BTC trends down your MSTY share price goes down.

 

[PNW bow hunter]

MSTY exists to buy/sell options on MSTR (betting on the price going up or down). MSTY borrows the money to purchase the options (leverage) and use their capital (the money you invested in MSTY) to buy treasury bonds to put up as collateral. The money they make from buying/selling the options on MSTR is paid out weekly to the shareholders. If the fund managers fail to reach their target profit for the week they supplement the shortfall by returning some of the funds capital thus causing the value of the fund (share price) to decline. The fund performs great when MSTR is trending up (paid out 200% dividends in 2024). When MSTR is going down the majority of the weekly dividend is a return of capital which causes the share price to decline. Bitcoin has been trending down so MSTR (BTC treasury company) is trending down.

If BTC goes down, MSTR shares go down causing MSTY shares to go down. Owning MSTY is great when BTC is going up. OK when BTC is trading sideways. Bad when BTC is trending down. Still pays a high dividend (65% dist rate ytd) regardless of BTC's price action but when BTC trends down your MSTY share price goes down.

That was a very clear, and easy to understand explanation.

Great job

The few sources I have read about this stock didn’t even come close to doing that good of a description!