Mini crashes and the bear cycle are baked into the cake at this point. The average time from the halving to the cycle’s ATH is about 70 weeks. For the first 20-30 weeks we will have big money rolling in. This will be the time when all the news people and politicians will be screaming about the warnings and asking for regulation while they’re buying it in the evenings. Then they will change their tone and honey d!ck the average retail investor and drive up price. For 20-30 weeks we will see average Joe who already missed out on 10x gains FOMO in to not miss the next 10x. I’ve said rather tongue-in-cheek sell when Coinbase hits #1 in App Store, well that’s when that part happens. We call those guys exit liquidity. That’s when we see the big institutional sell offs. The headlines about scams and probably something about how China outlawed something will be back. Retail guys that didn’t practice risk management and did zero research who lost their ass go back to the office warning their coworkers. Finally they all give up and get out. That gives us the final push down. If we’re lucky, everything has pulled back 60-80% at this point. This thread gets resurrected with the “I told you so” crowd. Those of us that have already took the ride for 2-3 cycles buy. And this thread gets resurrected in 2028 by someone asking if they should buy.
Or it goes to $0
manage risk accordingly
It doesn’t exactly repeat itself, but it certainly rhymes
