Bitcoin

[Bowfisher]

I agree with some of your points, but the " absolutely outpacing inflation" clause, I have issue with. Lots of shells being moved around when measuring actual price increase per specific entity of material...and if you can guarantee me 10% return for the next 25 years, I will send you a bunch of capital.

The reason BTC is going up is because there is a limited amount available, the reason prices are going up is the dollar is worth less every year. It's lost a triple digit percent of buying power in the last 100 years.

The fact that you have to have your money, make money is correct, that's the only way you can hope to make up for the difference of buying power that inflation robs you of....but wages haven't kept pace...and we are in a situation where a person is going to be a landowner, or they're not. If your family doesn't own land, you won't ever make enough to buy any. Farm ground near me has gone from 3200/ac in 2005 to 16,000 today. Pretty sure the " diversified market " returns have not done that....Most assets are just out of reach for the average guy now. Sad day for all of us, our leadership has failed us with their monetary policies.

 

[180ls1]

I agree with some of your points, but the " absolutely outpacing inflation" clause, I have issue with. Lots of shells being moved around when measuring actual price increase per specific entity of material...and if you can guarantee me 10% return for the next 25 years, I will send you a bunch of capital.

The reason BTC is going up is because there is a limited amount available, the reason prices are going up is the dollar is worth less every year. It's lost a triple digit percent of buying power in the last 100 years.

The fact that you have to have your money, make money is correct, that's the only way you can hope to make up for the difference of buying power that inflation robs you of....but wages haven't kept pace...and we are in a situation where a person is going to be a landowner, or they're not. If your family doesn't own land, you won't ever make enough to buy any. Farm ground near me has gone from 3200/ac in 2005 to 16,000 today. Pretty sure the " diversified market " returns have not done that....Most assets are just out of reach for the average guy now. Sad day for all of us, our leadership has failed us with their monetary policies.

What data are you looking at?

 

[Stave]

Sad day for all of us, our leadership has failed us with their monetary policies.

I wholeheartedly agree with Bow Fisher on this point

 

[fmyth]

I’m curious how many guys are playing with “real money” on this thread.

All through Covid everyone was a winner on stock picks. Then reality set in. I was surprised see how many of the people that posted often on the Rokslide stock traders thread didn’t really have much invested. Multiple people only had a couple grand or way less it seemed after the market tanked. When it was going up, you would of thought they were all in.

Are most of you guys 50 percent of net workers in crypto?

10 percent of net worth in crypto?

1 percent of net worth in crypto?

50% of my investment portfolio is in crypto and crypto related investments:

BTC
ETH
MSTR
SOL
BTC ETF's: IBIT and FBTC
Coinbase
BTC Miners: MARA, CLSK, WULF, CIFR, HUT8 & RIOT

I believe BTC will outperform all other assets over the next 5 to 10 years and have invested my money in alignment with my beliefs.

 

[Stave]

I believe crypto is going up because people believe it will go up. It's utility is yet to be actualized. That is, there are no things priced in Bitcoin.

If commodities ever become priced in Bitcoin, it will no longer skyrocket relative to commodities.

If commodities never become priced in Bitcoin, it will ultimately crash into irrelevance.

 

[Foldem]

I agree with some of your points, but the " absolutely outpacing inflation" clause, I have issue with. Lots of shells being moved around when measuring actual price increase per specific entity of material...and if you can guarantee me 10% return for the next 25 years, I will send you a bunch of capital.

The reason BTC is going up is because there is a limited amount available, the reason prices are going up is the dollar is worth less every year. It's lost a triple digit percent of buying power in the last 100 years.

The fact that you have to have your money, make money is correct, that's the only way you can hope to make up for the difference of buying power that inflation robs you of....but wages haven't kept pace...and we are in a situation where a person is going to be a landowner, or they're not. If your family doesn't own land, you won't ever make enough to buy any. Farm ground near me has gone from 3200/ac in 2005 to 16,000 today. Pretty sure the " diversified market " returns have not done that....Most assets are just out of reach for the average guy now. Sad day for all of us, our leadership has failed us with their monetary policies.

Can you explain how it's gone down greater than 100%? Not arguing that it's lost a significant amount of buying power, just having a tough time grasping a triple digit decrease.

 

[fmyth]

Can you explain how it's gone down greater than 100%? Not arguing that it's lost a significant amount of buying power, just having a tough time grasping a triple digit decrease.

The US dollar has lost over 96% of its value since 1913, when the Federal Reserve took over the dollar. That means today’s dollar would be worth less than 4 cents back in 1913.
The Fed devalues the dollar by printing more dollars without creating any value.
Nixon ended the gold standard in 1971, skyrocketing inflation.

Printing more money causes monetary inflation. That means there are more dollars in circulation, but just because there is more paper money floating around, that doesn’t mean value has been created.

The chart below shows the history of the dollar inflation. Look closely at what happened to the money supply in 2020. If you were sitting on a pile of cash or living on a fixed income you got screwed hard.

 

[Foldem]

The US dollar has lost over 96% of its value since 1913, when the Federal Reserve took over the dollar. That means today’s dollar would be worth less than 4 cents back in 1913.
The Fed devalues the dollar by printing more dollars without creating any value.
Nixon ended the gold standard in 1971, skyrocketing inflation.

Printing more money causes monetary inflation. That means there are more dollars in circulation, but just because there is more paper money floating around, that doesn’t mean value has been created.

The chart below shows the history of the dollar inflation. Look closely at what happened to the money supply in 2020. If you were sitting on a pile of cash or living on a fixed income you got screwed hard.

View attachment 689748

Oh I get it, but that's not triple digit %. That would mean it was worth zero or negative?

 

[Stave]

For those investing 'real money' in Bitcoin, you owe it to yourself to 'steel man' alternative arguments.

On the subject of money, the best thinker I have found is Keith Weiner. He argues that gold (yes gold, the shiny pet rock) is money and that nothing else is money.

Here is an example of his line of thinking.

Fwiw, he developed and sold a software company right before the dotcom bubble crashed. Since then he has created a company based in Arizona that pays a yield on gold in more ounces of gold. His belief is that when interest is paid on gold, gold will enter the real economy again and that it is even capable of unwinding the debt crisis.

Edit: Keith's Lexicon is a good introduction to his theory and contains links to many thought-provoking articles

 

[ozyclint]

The US dollar has lost over 96% of its value since 1913, when the Federal Reserve took over the dollar. That means today’s dollar would be worth less than 4 cents back in 1913.
The Fed devalues the dollar by printing more dollars without creating any value.
Nixon ended the gold standard in 1971, skyrocketing inflation.

Printing more money causes monetary inflation. That means there are more dollars in circulation, but just because there is more paper money floating around, that doesn’t mean value has been created.

The chart below shows the history of the dollar inflation. Look closely at what happened to the money supply in 2020. If you were sitting on a pile of cash or living on a fixed income you got screwed hard.

View attachment 689748

Not to mention the expansion of currency supply as a result of fractional reserve lending.

 

[Afhunter1]

My retirement funds currently are:

75% diversified stocks
25% rental real estate

I bought into bitcoin for the first time last week and I think I’m going to keep weekly buying for a few months and reevaluate what my plan is at the end of the year. I’d like to add some exposure to coins but I only trust Bitcoin will be around for long. I just can’t seem to grasp where the value is going to come from when it is no longer the hot item and there is going to be so many coins in the future they are going to dilute the sector. I don’t see how we can have dozens of traded coins that all have no intrinsic value. For me I’d say I’m gambling and bitcoin is not a long term investment. It may prove to be a good short term item though. I definitely don’t think I’d pass more than 5% of my portfolio value in alt coins and I will be ready to sell at first serious issues that show up.

 

[TX_Diver]

How do you guys that are invested in sol or other coins with no limit (unlike btc which has 21M if I understand right) view the investment. Is it just based on the value or potential of what can be done on that particular blockchain?

Other criteria? Also what’s the next sol ?

 

[*zap*]

In 1920 an ounce of silver bought you 5 gallons of gasoline.
Today an ounce of silver buys you 8 gallons of gasoline.

In 1920 an ounce of gold was worth $20.
Today an ounce of gold is worth $2200.

And you can hold it in your hand. You can carry $50,000 of gold (23 ounces) in a cargo pocket.

 

[Afhunter1]

How do you guys that are invested in sol or other coins with no limit (unlike btc which has 21M if I understand right) view the investment. Is it just based on the value or potential of what can be done on that particular blockchain?

Other criteria? Also what’s the next sol ?

This is exactly my hang up with alt coins. I sort of buy in on the limited availability concept of Bitcoin but what does SOL have other than FOMO driving prices currently. I also see people eventually using Bitcoin as a currency and that’s why I think it will be the only one to have any staying power but its great swings in price will be long over by then.

 

[MountainTracker]

In 1920 an ounce of silver bought you 5 gallons of gasoline.
Today an ounce of silver buys you 8 gallons of gasoline.

In 1920 an ounce of gold was worth $20.
Today an ounce of gold is worth $2200.

And you can hold it in your hand. You can carry $50,000 of gold (23 ounces) in a cargo pocket.

Well if you’ve been holding gold or silver since 1920 you’d be doing real well but…..

Since none of us were alive over 100 years ago let’s look at a more recent time frame, how about just the last ten.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/bitcoin-vs.-gold:-which-one-is-a-better-investment-0

And it seems to me if you were carrying around 23 ounces of gold in your cargo pocket you’re carrying too much weight but that’s bc I’m a weight weenie.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[*zap*]

If I was holding gold from 1920 it would have been confiscated by the US government for $20 an ounce in 1933.

 

[MountainTracker]

If I was holding gold from 1920 it would have been confiscated by the US government for $20 an ounce in 1933.

Yep

Also forgot to mention, at current prices, I can buy 19,278 gallons of fuel with one btc.


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[mattferg84]

 

[mattferg84]

Imagine holding one of the oldest assets in the world and getting taken over by something that was created 14 years ago

 

[Stave]

Sorry I can't let this go
So, I'm not saying Bitcoin won't work, but IF it doesn't work, here are my reasons why:
Differences between Bitcoin and gold

• Bitcoin doesn't exist
• The ledger is recording interactions, not counting things.
• Gold is a part of the universe with unique properties: weight, malleability, reflectivity, conductivity, non-reactivity etc. It is used in alloys, electronics, phones, satellites, telescopes, jewelry, gilding, artwork, religious items, athletic awards, royal regalia, status symbols, chemistry, dentistry, utensils and architecture. If we had more gold we would be meaningfully more wealthy because we could afford to use it more often in place of inferior elements. For example, if we had more gold, many electronics would be higher quality and less expensive. In fact, if we had enough gold, we could use it in gold core bullets since it is non-toxic, soft as lead, and twice as dense. Yet we don't use the giant stockpile of undeployed gold to make bullets. Why? Because it has one use that is more valuable than the rest: it is an economic measuring stick. Everything is priced in gold in a free market. That is, gold is money
• Why is gold so good at being money? Well, gold is a commodity. And it is the most marketable commodity: it commands the lowest bid-ask spread. The combination of low spread and high liquidity make it naturally the commodity in which all others are priced and traded in a free market. Gold is money: the economic measuring stick.
• Gold's money properties (low spread and high liquidity) are not arbitrary. They are the result of its physical properties. Gold is value-dense, simple to store, does not go bad, is perfectly fungible, infinitesimally divisible, universally desirable, uniquely useful, difficult to fake and easy to verify. Its role as money–the most liquid and trade-able thing in the economy–is the natural result of its properties and our needs.
• Bitcoin is artificial
  • The Bitcoin code is written by people, updated by people, and at risk of attack by malevolent states–but also well-meaning crowds!!! It can be corrupted and eventually it probably will be corrupted either by malice or mistake. At any rate, the possibility is non-zero.
  • Gold is natural and it's the thing in nature that doesn't change. Since it actually is incorruptible and indestructible it is a good measure of the value of things that do change.
  • Gold’s monetary, technological, and aesthetic roles in human life arose independently and repeatedly in disparate ancient cultures, strongly indicating that the traits of human behavior and of gold will continue to interact in natural, understandable, predictable, unchanging ways.
• Bitcoin is credit
  • It is credited to miners as an implicit ‘IOU.’ There is an implicit promise by the Bitcoin community to accept the miners’ IOU-tokens as payment (for dollars typically). However, the debt tokens, like dollars themselves, are not ultimately redeemable. They are passed from creditor to creditor like children passing IOUs or people exchanging dollars or mine-town employees passing scrip. Bitcoins, like all fiat, are irredeemable credit tokens that circulate endlessly.
  • Gold is not credit. If you have gold no one owes you anything. You have not become a participant in anyone's scheme. It is a commodity, a useful part of the natural world, not an implicit financial arrangement existing only in the minds of willing participants.
  • Gold extinguishes credit. Not only is gold not credit, but as a commodity, gold can be leased productively in industry and, as money, it can be loaned in finance credibly and the debt can be extinguished at the end of the term by returning the gold.
• As credit, Bitcoin depends on human confidence
  • If people stop thinking Bitcoin will work, Bitcoin will stop working, just like a loan or scrip or IOUs or dollars.
  • People might doubt that banks have the gold, but they never doubt the gold itself. Gold’s properties don't depend on opinion. Combined with free markets and a robust legal system, gold has always emerged as dependable money, funding human economic activity
• Bitcoin’s supply is fixed
  • When the market values gold greater than the labor, energy and material required to mine gold, the market is signaling a need for greater money supply
  • Bitcoin cannot respond to market demand. It is inelastic to economic dynamics.
• Bitcoin has no value
  • If the supply of Bitcoin were not finite, it's value would be obvious: zero
  • On the contrary, there is an enormous stockpile of idle gold above ground–yet goldmining is still profitable! More is always better because it actually has value. The more gold humans have, the more they use it as money and in countless other ways.
• Bitcoin doesn't have a fair price
  • Because it has no value, its price is determined by speculation.
  • Gold price is determined by people doing real things in the real economy (mining, refining, crafting, researching, trading, banking . . .)
• Bitcoin doesn't have a stable price
  • Because it has no value, the price is not stable. This means it can't be used as capital to fund business.
• Bitcoin consumes capital
  • Just like at a casino, because there is no value added by bitcoins/chips, capital is put to no use and is even lost when speculators speculate for the sake of speculating
  • Gold is capital. It can be loaned honestly and redeemed profitably
• Bitcoin is centralized
  • Gold is scattered across the earth’s crust very evenly, can be mined out of streams or dirt by anyone, and requires no network to use. It is peer to peer!
• Bitcoin is traceable
  • State actors will do ALL they can to observe Bitcoin transactions and piece together the whole transaction history
  • Gold transactions can happen offline
• Bitcoin losses are not recoverable
  • If someone takes your gold, you or law enforcement can physically go get it. Shipwrecked gold can be recovered after centuries with no loss of value. Gold cannot be permanently lost

The bottom line is this. Anything can function as currency: pokemon cards, Trump NFTs, scrip, US dollars, Bitcoin. However, none of those things are money. The solution is not inventing a new kind of money. The solution is good governance, free markets and just courts. That will unlock gold.

That's the best steel man I can do against Bitcoin. I hope it helps someone clarify their own position