Bitcoin

[Dos Perros]

Matt,

I've attached the fundamentals you've been searching for. M2 money supply tells the story of the fiat money Ponzi in pure black and white.

You may not like Bitcoin for whatever reason but these charts are pure signal.

If your investment vehicle of choice is not outpacing M2 then you are being debased. In the charts below you will see I have changed the denominator to M2 and picked some common numerators (SPY) S&P 500/ (QQQ) NASDAQ/ (GLD) GOLD/ (XOM) EXXON MOBILE and BITCOIN

The only way you can disagree with this data moving forward is if you think the US GOVT will stop printing money and expanding the money supply. Im betting it only accelerates from here personally as we are now adding 1 Trillion a year in debt just to pay interest expense which is also now the largest line item in the US budget.

Also this is just the US... Every G7 nation has the same issue.

Im also seeing in this thread a lot of you saying you will sell your BTC for fiat at 100K or whatever price you have in your head. This is a fundamental misunderstanding of why you should be invested in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is the EXIT!

Can you now articulate why this is wrong, or why others might think this is wrong?

 

[fmyth]

I think Elon Musk, while appearing on SNL best decried Bitcoin.

Tesla currently holds 11,510 BTC, valued at approximately $780 million, distributed across 68 addresses.
Additionally, the data also shows that SpaceX boasts its own Bitcoin treasure chest, with holdings totaling 8,290 BTC, valued at approximately $560 million, dispersed across 28 addresses.

Watch what they do, not what they say.

 

[The_Dinkmaster]

Tesla currently holds 11,510 BTC, valued at approximately $780 million, distributed across 68 addresses.
Additionally, the data also shows that SpaceX boasts its own Bitcoin treasure chest, with holdings totaling 8,290 BTC, valued at approximately $560 million, dispersed across 28 addresses.

Watch what they do, not what they say.

The problem will be when he decides to drop that on the market. Talk about a collapse

 

[fmyth]

The problem will be when he decides to drop that on the market. Talk about a collapse

GBTC has sold 200,000 Bitcoins since the day the ETF was approved less than 2 months ago and the price of Bitcoin has increased from 42k to 68k. The ETF's are buying just under a billion dollars a day of Bitcoin. Elons 1.2 billion in BTC will be absorbed by the market in one day. If he dumped it all in one day it may cause a 10% dip that trading day but the next day the ETF's will buy another billion which is currently 10 times the number of BTC mined. Come April that will represent 20 times the number of BTC mined.

 

[fmyth]

Can you now articulate why this is wrong, or why others might think this is wrong?

Are you asking why increasing the amount of USD in circulation is bad?

 

[Dos Perros]

Are you asking why increasing the amount of USD in circulation is bad?

No, I'm asking the author to articulate why another investment vehicle may be better than bitcoin.

 

[Historybuff]

Lots of good questions on here and lots of great answers from some helpfilul guys. It's a shame people didn't look closer during the bear market when it was 16k, 18k, 20k, 25k, 30k, 45k etc. A couple of the good etfs on the exchange are ibit and fbtc. A good miner stock is clsk. And mstr is a good play as well. And the best strategy is to hold the asset long term and study it. Good luck.

 

[william schmaltz]

The problem will be when he decides to drop that on the market. Talk about a collapse

Mini crashes and the bear cycle are baked into the cake at this point. The average time from the halving to the cycle’s ATH is about 70 weeks. For the first 20-30 weeks we will have big money rolling in. This will be the time when all the news people and politicians will be screaming about the warnings and asking for regulation while they’re buying it in the evenings. Then they will change their tone and honey d!ck the average retail investor and drive up price. For 20-30 weeks we will see average Joe who already missed out on 10x gains FOMO in to not miss the next 10x. I’ve said rather tongue-in-cheek sell when Coinbase hits #1 in App Store, well that’s when that part happens. We call those guys exit liquidity. That’s when we see the big institutional sell offs. The headlines about scams and probably something about how China outlawed something will be back. Retail guys that didn’t practice risk management and did zero research who lost their ass go back to the office warning their coworkers. Finally they all give up and get out. That gives us the final push down. If we’re lucky, everything has pulled back 60-80% at this point. This thread gets resurrected with the “I told you so” crowd. Those of us that have already took the ride for 2-3 cycles buy. And this thread gets resurrected in 2028 by someone asking if they should buy.

Or it goes to $0 manage risk accordingly
It doesn’t exactly repeat itself, but it certainly rhymes

 

[Historybuff]

Mini crashes and the bear cycle are baked into the cake at this point. The average time from the halving to the cycle’s ATH is about 70 weeks. For the first 20-30 weeks we will have big money rolling in. This will be the time when all the news people and politicians will be screaming about the warnings and asking for regulation while they’re buying it in the evenings. Then they will change their tone and honey d!ck the average retail investor and drive up price. For 20-30 weeks we will see average Joe who already missed out on 10x gains FOMO in to not miss the next 10x. I’ve said rather tongue-in-cheek sell when Coinbase hits #1 in App Store, well that’s when that part happens. We call those guys exit liquidity. That’s when we see the big institutional sell offs. The headlines about scams and probably something about how China outlawed something will be back. Retail guys that didn’t practice risk management and did zero research who lost their ass go back to the office warning their coworkers. Finally they all give up and get out. That gives us the final push down. If we’re lucky, everything has pulled back 60-80% at this point. This thread gets resurrected with the “I told you so” crowd. Those of us that have already took the ride for 2-3 cycles buy. And this thread gets resurrected in 2028 by someone asking if they should buy.

Or it goes to $0 manage risk accordingly
It doesn’t exactly repeat itself, but it certainly rhymes

This is why you go long term bitcoin only. There is no second best

 

[Craig Van Arsdale]

No, I'm asking the author to articulate why another investment vehicle may be better than bitcoin.

Not sure I fully understand your question. There is no investment that has outperformed BTC.

The 3 best performing stocks in the S&P 500 over the last 30 years are Amazon, Monster Energy and Nvidia

Here are those stocks priced in BTC

The M2 data shows that you can't measure stock performance or any asset denominated in USD without first adjusting for the real adjusted debasement of the dollar.

Gold,SPY QQQ are all flat over a 20+ year period when you adjust for M2...

 

[Dos Perros]

Not sure I fully understand your question. There is no investment that has outperformed BTC.

The 3 best performing stocks in the S&P 500 over the last 30 years are Amazon, Monster Energy and Nvidia

Here are those stocks priced in BTC

The M2 data shows that you can't measure stock performance or any asset denominated in USD without first adjusting for the real adjusted debasement of the dollar.

Gold,SPY QQQ are all flat over a 20+ year period when you adjust for M2...

Whatever you are purporting, now tell me why you're wrong (or why someone else would say you're wrong).

 

[Craig Van Arsdale]

Whatever you are purporting, now tell me why you're wrong (or why someone else would say you're wrong).

I specifically picked this data because its the easiest to understand and undeniable.

If you ask me to Steel Man the data ill be left with the argument that the data is in fact not correct/accurate and can't be used to make these observations.

I've spent thousands of hours trying to find information that supports why this is in fact not true but have found no such data. If all of the data aligns nearly perfectly and you start from first principles which is comparing the denominator to all possibilities you end up here.

Im happy to engage if there's something you think im presenting here that's incorrect.

 

[Historybuff]

Not sure I fully understand your question. There is no investment that has outperformed BTC.

The 3 best performing stocks in the S&P 500 over the last 30 years are Amazon, Monster Energy and Nvidia

Here are those stocks priced in BTC

The M2 data shows that you can't measure stock performance or any asset denominated in USD without first adjusting for the real adjusted debasement of the dollar.

Gold,SPY QQQ are all flat over a 20+ year period when you adjust for M2...

Everything goes to zero against bitcoin

 

[Split toe]

Well it is hovering around an all-time high with the halving coming up. Should be interesting.

 

[Trial153]

I bought in starting April of 16 though end late 17. Total purchase was 13 coins at 4076$ avg price. Havent touched it since.

 

[Split toe]

I bought in starting April of 16 though end late 17. Total purchase was 13 coins at 4076$ avg price. Havent touched it since.

Heck yeah man, that is awesome, congrats!

 

[Stave]

Question about cold wallets:

Aren't cold wallet manufacturers a third party?

How do you know your cold wallet does not contain intentional malware or unintentional mistakes?

 

[Stave]

For that matter, are not the 'gatekeepers' a third party? They are the ones who update bitcoin software.

It seems to me that no software will ever be trust-less. You will always have to trust someone.

I will 'trust' the bitcoin system when:
1) There is a method to recover lost coins
2) An insurance company will insure coins that are not recoverable with something other than crypto (equal value in fiat or precious metal, e.g.)

Until then, it is merely a casino chip, which is fine

 

[Bearwhisky]

Question about cold wallets:

Aren't cold wallet manufacturers a third party?

How do you know your cold wallet does not contain intentional malware or unintentional mistakes?

Yes they are “third party”. There is no “first party”. Bitcoin is not a company or brand.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Stave]

Yes they are “third party”. There is no “first party”. Bitcoin is not a company or brand.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Someone is running and updating the bitcoin software.

So, you have to trust those people to do their jobs perfectly and you also have to trust the folks who make hardware wallets, as well as the miners.

I'm going to need some credible insurance before investing in crypto rather than gambling on it.