Wyoming General Elk Draw Odds - Fair warning to rookies

[Eastcoasthunter94]

Do the math on a bonus system it mirrors odds for a preference points if they square them. I did a little study of this last year out of curiosity and was surprised at the results. Either they need to increase % of random or just go full random. The pref point system will be the death of hunting because new hunters late to the game are screwed.

Do you care to share some of your findings on bonus points vs preference? I would be curious to see results

 

[lintond]

Do you care to share some of your findings on bonus points vs preference? I would be curious to see results

Unfortunately I didn't save it, but if you go look at Utah limited entry on GoHunt you'll see where the odds look very similar to preference points where low points has a very small %. If point creep isn't an issue then the bonus point system works, but point creep will always be a thing since there is more demand then supply.

Snip below is random LE elk at the ~15 pt threshold. So if I'm new to the game (youth/new hunter) I have a slim chance to draw. This is why all the point schemes are unsustainable. Idaho & NM have it figured out!

 

[Lancejohn60]

I have seen people blame 90/10 discussions and many other reasons for point creep with Wyoming General Elk. The reality is there has been a steady increase over time that is starting be felt at a more rapid pace due to exponential increases in applicants over the past few years while elk tags have remained very constant. Here are the number of applicants in the regular draw for general elk since 2010 for anyone interested. Essentially this tag is going to become a once every 10+ year tag very soon... Someone just starting out in the points game needs to go into this with eyes wide open - it is a long term investment, even if you choose to do the special.

2010 4052 applicants 1719 tags .5 points to draw
2011 4046 applicants 1603 tags 1 point to draw
2012 4416 applicants 1766 tags 1+ points to draw
2013 4286 applicants 1695 tags 1+ points to draw
2014 4687 applicants 1737 tags 1+ points to draw
2015 5247 applicants 1787 tags 1+ points to draw
2016 5541 applicants 1842 tags 1+ points to draw
2017 5834 applicants 1764 tags 2 points to draw
2018 6002 applicants 1787 tags 2+ points to draw
2019 5982 applicants 1775 tags 2+ points to draw
2020 5777 applicants 1689 tags 3 points to draw
2021 7582 applicants 1608 tags 3+ points to draw
2022 8316 applicants 1575 tags 4 points to draw

The drop in the number of tags can be explained by fluctuating numbers in the LE tags. Wyoming offers a constant number of elk tags yearly. If 90/10 passes, there will be a significant increase in the number of general tags offered. However, if 90/10 passes, there will be a significant number of point holders who choose to use their points on general permits so point creep will likely remain constant.

When you draw those general tags, make the most of them. It will likely be a long time before you get another one!

Agreed!

 

[Bowhuntone]

As long as the number people wanting is greater than the available tags point creep will continue. And Wyomings game and fish’s largest revenue is from bonus points over 12 million dollars in 2020 so they will never get rid of a cash cow like that.

 

[Grousehntr]

Leave that to Californians

I just cant see a californian city slicker living in Gillette lol