They are all a gamble anymore to some extent.
Always have been, generally speaking, rigs are no less reliable than they were 20yrs ago, there are models that have good reputations in the past, and models of the same year with terrible reputations
It usually takes 5 years to have a good idea how reliable a model will be. The new tundra started off bad (for a Toyota) but now they could be very reliable, we won’t know until the whole first batch is around 150k
I recently got a 24’ taco, this newest generation is an unknown, but historically, it’s a pretty safe option, but if a Toyota has a problem, it gets a lot more attention than a ford or Chevy.
I would not consider upgrading our 21’ tundra for a gen 3, but if I didn’t have a half ton and needed a new one, I would probably take my chances on a tundra.
I have been kicked in the nuts every time I’ve got a domestic brand pickup, so I do have some bias. On the other hand, I/we have had more Toyotas than anything, from late 80’s little standard cab with a 22re to several 4Runners, tacos and a couple tundras without a single problem that wasn’t wear and tear