I live an hour away. Here are some other things that often are not mentioned as contributing factors. Wolves have surely had an impact. I haven't read the entire thread, but I doubt anyone would argue that.
When wolves were introduced n 1995, the herd was at its highest recorded count in the current trend cycle. YNP and MT FWP decided the herd needed to be reduced. It was argued to what level would be targeted. Depending upon who you talked to, the target varied from 10K to 12K, a 40-50% reduction.
To get there, MT issued 2,200 cow tags for a late Jan/Feb period. That was an increase in cow tags over what had been issued prior to the "knock down the numbers" strategy. These were pregnant cows, so if you figured even a 25% calf recruitment rate for that herd, having an 80% harvest on 2,200 cow elk resulted in 1,760 cows and another 440 calves not recruited.
That went on for many years. When calls were made to reduce cow tags or stop the seasons because of plummeting numbers, increased age of cows, and low calf recruitment, it was met with resistance, mostly by hunters who enjoyed that hunt. Finally, FWP did close the late season, but it was too late. The damage was done.
Add that on top of wolves, a hard winter or two, and then have the highest density of grizzly bears in the lower 48 and a calf hardly had a chance. Bear predation is the leading cause of calf loss in the first three months of life; both black bears and grizzly bears.
To make it even worse, the MT legislature passed some laws that hammered elk even worse, In 2003, HB 42 was passed that required FWP to hammer any elk unit that was over objective according to the MT elk management plan. If you have ever seen a map of the units that are over objective, you would laugh. What we as hunters find to be over objective is not close to what politicians consider over objective. Needless to say, a lot of surrounding areas in units just north of this wintering range continued to have late cow seasons. Not sure if any of these Norther herd elk went that far north.
Most hunters who have not followed the politics or read the MT elk management plan are not aware that under the current rule of HB 42, even if every wolf, bear, and lion in MT died tomorrow, most of our elk units would not be allowed to expand, as the numbers are supposedly over the very low objectives the politicians forced us to adopt in our elk management plan. A map shows that the majority of elk units are "over objective," per the politically influenced objectives shown in that elk management plan. By law, if a unit is over objective, the most liberal season types are to be implemented with the focus on high harvest. See the map below. Anything in green or red is not allowed to increase, per the current elk management plan objectives. You will see that in the Paradise Valley north of Gardiner, only Unit 313 is below objective.
View attachment 32524
Additionally, the MT Legislature passed a required for FWP to implement an aggressive strategy for management of brucellosis in SW Montana. Two hot spots are the area where the Northern Yellowstone herd lives and west of the park where the elk migrate from YNP to the Madison Valley. To try reduce elk-cattle incidence of brucellosis, elk have been shot on the winter range every year. Yup, even at these lowest of low numbers, pregnant cows were being shot to keep them from possibly infecting cattle with brucellosis, albeit not at the high numbers as before.
The wolf surely made a difference. But, when you consider all the other pressures placed on these elk, I think a case could be made that too much hunting pressure put them in a steep decline that amplified the impact of wolves, and other predators.
A lot of moving parts to the history of that herd since wolves were introduced. Living here, watching it unfold, and seeing how the politics was as much an enemy of the elk as were the wolves, it is very refreshing to see calf numbers and total numbers starting to make some modest gains in that herd.