This cycle was predictable, this level is unprecedented.
Yes, it is. So is the numbers of new shooters and numbers of firearms being purchased. Have you seen the data lately? Since january 2020, there have been over 1 million firearms purchased
per month. The big months are somewhere between 2.2 and 3 million firearms purchased in a single month. That's roughly the equivalent of a firearm being purchased every second to two seconds...
for two years straight.
Pretty wild to think about the scale of that.
This isn't to say people are shooting more, because I know for a fact they are not. However, I keep seeing pictures of tens of thousands of primers sitting on the shelves of guys that don't shoot more than a couple hundred rounds a year.
Not long ago, customers ran this entire country out of AR15's... the most plentiful rifle in existence... and for a while there were none to buy anywhere. I knew guys that were buying 100 at a time, just to stack in their garage.
Now look at primers. Before all this, they were less than $50 per thousand. Think of just how many someone with enough money to buy a few AR15's can buy and hoard? Then the scalpers buy all that remains, to the last one. Manufacturers are not accustomed to being able to sell all they produce, as primers were commonplace everywhere for virtually ever. No one was out of stock, ever... not since obama, and that shortage was short in comparison.
The primer manufacturers saw what happened to the AR15 manufacturers when they put tons of money into increasing production during a panic, and how many of them folded during the subsequent collapse. So, rather than increase production costs... they will instead increase price until demand is reduced. This will maximize their profits and minimize their risk.