What is the true odds

[Flatlander1987]

What do y’all think the true odds of a non resident killing a elk in let’s say 2nd rifle over the counter .

 

[camelcluch]

About 12%

 

[nphunter]

Depends on the hunt, state, areas. Lots of places I can think of with an OTC cow tag that is probably close to 90%+ for a person who puts in some effort.

I assume your talking second season CO but most every western state had 2nd season tags. OR had 2nd season spike tags and general cow tags OTC in most of the state.

 

[Indian Summer]

It baffles me that people ask a question like this assuming Colorado is all we ever talk about. What the heck is second season? Or better yet why? Montana, Wyoming…. One license all of archery season AND the entire gun season in 50 units on a general license. Yeah buddy!

 

[Crowmangler]

If you don't go, it's always 0%

 

[Hoodie]

Is it the non-resident's first elk hunt or his fifth? Or tenth?

Can't get experience if you're too worried about failure. I hate failure and am irrationally scared of it, but it's a necessary part of learning how to hunt OTC unit elk. The more you hunt, the more you learn. The more you learn, the less you fail.

 

[cgasner1]

How much did you pay for access


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[cnelk]

I have no idea what the success rate would be for killing an elk, but it’s 100% you’re gonna have lots of company

 

[Deerhunter6250]

10 percent of the elk hunters kill 90 percent of the elk. Depends on how much time and effort you put in to it.

 

[waitforit]

This is just mental masturbation. The overall odds don't matter in the slightest. There are characteristics of hunters who kill every season vs. ones who never do. Not having any idea how you hunt means nobody can give you any idea of what your odds are.

Personal story.. Last year I talked to a guy driving the NF roads in his Jeep and he gave me all the reasons he couldn't find any elk (not enough time, too hot, too dry, too much pressure, wrong moon, too windy). I wished him "safe travels" and he got the message and headed off.

I was studying my map and noticed a small area I'd overlooked before. From my spot on the road, I glassed back up the canyon and stumbled onto some elk basically from the spot we were talking at and killed a cow later that morning. Just sharing this to illustrate that what you do matters much more than unit statistics. These elk were about 2 miles from a road that hunters drive up and down all day long... I guess nobody thought to look where I looked.

 

[Indian Summer]

Man these are some good answers so far. Really good! I hunt a unit with a success rate in the mid 20% range. But I’m borderline insane when it comes to elk hunting. Nothing stops me. Not elevation not shitty weather and not even my own physical limitations. That’s because I have no mental limitations. Over 10 years my success rate is right around 100%. And I’ll be killing number 11 there in exactly 6 months. But I’ll also be watching hunters and even guides hit and run the spot for a day or two leaving to find somewhere better. Their rate is zero going up the same trail.

If every single year me and my partner and 8 other guys go up that trail the success rate will be the same for that unit barring the occasional lucky dog.

 

[Ron.C]

Don't worry about your odds. You could very well be the one to defy them.

Do your homework, pick your dates, commit to your area, and work hard once you are there.

For what it's worth, some of my best and most memorable days/years elk hunting never resulted in a kill.

 

[Flatlander1987]

this will be my fourth year hunt the same spot first year weather got bad and I had my wife with me so I took her and the horses home .
Next year I return I took a buddy we killed 2 bulls opening morning was packed out to the truck by dark. This guy had never been out of Arkansas.
This past year I went by myself On first rifle and killed a nice bull the evening hunt of opening day .
This year I plan to go second season I found there to be way more hunting pressure on 1st rifle than on second rifle .

 

[Pony Soldier]

Three years out of 35, we limited out shooting from the front porch on opening day. I would class that as a miracle. Historically I have found the weather more on my side around vets day in Montana. Weather gives me an edge but most of it is just pure luck.

What you get in Colorado I haven't a clue.