What is the best way to calculate NM odds?

[timberland]

I know it is impossible to be accurate, but do you have a system that gets you close or you are confident in?

 

[idahohikker]

I was just looking at the Toprut calculator. I paid for their service. I think the odds calculation is off. I’m not a statistician but did well in basic high school and college classes. I’d be interested in the opinion of someone with a more extensive stats background.

They added together the odds for each choice, 1-3. So 2% for 3 choices means 6% chance overall.

I was calculating my odds of drawing a random tag in Idaho as a resident within the next five years. I posted here and was given a formula where you multiple odds of not drawing. I think that’s the direction you go.

 

[Thomas11]

Toprut odds tobme are pretty accurate. Actually they run a draw simulation that is run over thousands of times to get odds if I’m not totally off base. Also taken into acct is group applications which hadn’t been done before until toprut. Basically your overall odds as per their model is about as accurate as u can get in my opinion

 

[idahohikker]

Toprut odds tobme are pretty accurate. Actually they run a draw simulation that is run over thousands of times to get odds if I’m not totally off base. Also taken into acct is group applications which hadn’t been done before until toprut. Basically your overall odds as per their model is about as accurate as u can get in my opinion

I was impressed by their process. But is their adding process correct? Seems doubtful to me.

Also, Toprut seems fishy sometimes. The draw odds listed on the unit pages are vastly different than in the calculator. What gives there?

 

[seldomseensmith]

NM Game and fish puts out an odds report on their website every year.


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[timberland]

Haven't found it, got a link?

 

[Nickofthewoods]

NM Game and fish puts out an odds report on their website every year.


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If I remember correctly from last year, the odds report that NM releases requires a calculator, pen, paper, and a fair amount of time to figure out on your own. Toprut made it much simpler, but if you don't trust their simulator or don't want to pay then I guess you do it by hand and trust your own arithmetic skills. If I'm wrong and there is an easier way to do it please someone enlighten us all.

 

[idahohikker]

Where is the math major that just will give us the straight scoop?

 

[Trial153]

Top rut for sure

 

[bobr1]

 

[Forest]

The way I see it your odds of getting a tag are the unit with the best chance. Say 2, 4, and 11% odds. Your odds of getting a tag are 11%. Sure you could draw one of the others first, but your best chance at getting a tag is the 11.

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[idahohikker]

The way I see it your odds of getting a tag are the unit with the best chance. Say 2, 4, and 11% odds. Your odds of getting a tag are 11%. Sure you could draw one of the others first, but your best chance at getting a tag is the 11.

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Your odds will be higher than 11% where you get there cracks at it.

 

[Forest]

Your odds will be higher than 11% where you get there cracks at it.

I dont think so, the other choices are only as good as they are. In a sense it's like getting to apply 3 times in the same state

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[idahohikker]

If you got to apply three times in the same state, you’d calculate it by multiplying the odds of not drawing. So your odds with three chances as you would expect would be higher than one chance.

 

[Thomas11]

I was impressed by their process. But is their adding process correct? Seems doubtful to me.

Also, Toprut seems fishy sometimes. The draw odds listed on the unit pages are vastly different than in the calculator. What gives there?

Because the draw odds on unit page are first choice. When the calculater is used then that can depending on the other two choices and how u order them. Does that make sense?

 

[idahohikker]

Because the draw odds on unit page are first choice. When the calculater is used then that can depending on the other two choices and how u order them. Does that make sense?

I could buy that. Someone explain the additive calculation though. That seems wrong to me based on other probability calculating I’ve read here.

 

[Thomas11]

I could buy that. Someone explain the additive calculation though. That seems wrong to me based on other probability calculating I’ve read here.

The best way I can do Explain it is your total odds are no better than basically your last choice or your highest probable choice. If your first choice odds are 3% if u didn’t add any other choices then your odds are 3%. If u add two other choices and the last choice is 10% then your first choice goes to say 2% because u stand a chance of drawing your last choice over your first since they look at all three but your total odds are still 10%. I don’t know if that makes sense?

 

[FLAK]

Just Roll Those Dice Baby!!!!

 

[Forest]

The best way I can do Explain it is your total odds are no better than basically your last choice or your highest probable choice. If your first choice odds are 3% if u didn’t add any other choices then your odds are 3%. If u add two other choices and the last choice is 10% then your first choice goes to say 2% because u stand a chance of drawing your last choice over your first since they look at all three but your total odds are still 10%. I don’t know if that makes sense?

Agree other than your first two choices dont change. They are what they are. Cause they look at them first anyways. Assuming the app was filled out properly

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[Thomas11]

Agree other than your first two choices dont change. They are what they are. Cause they look at them first anyways. Assuming the app was filled out properly

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Ok so yes u right. Had to think
About it. The way I explained it is reversed. Actually u have same odds as first no matter your second or third choice. It’s your last choice that decreases due to possibly drawing first or second but no matter your total odds are same as your last highest percentage choice? I think that makes better sense